scholarly journals The Need for Theory in Actuarial Economic Models

1999 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.P. Huber ◽  
R.J. Verrall
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economics ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Empirical Approach ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThis paper addresses the fundamental issues in the construction and use of actuarial economic models, with specific reference to those described in the UK literature. Two approaches are considered: an empirical approach and a theoretical approach using financial economics. Although empirical testing is essential, the difficulties associated with it should not be underestimated. A theoretical framework can be used to limit the impact of these difficulties. However, economic modelling is further complicated by the lack of a reliable and comprehensive theoretical framework. This suggests that economic models are always likely to be inaccurate and consequently actuarial judgement is likely to be indispensable.

A Theoretical Approach for Sustainable Communication in City Branding

2017 ◽  
pp. 41-66
Author(s):  
Ayşe Banu Bıçakçı ◽  
Zeynep Genel
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Brand Value ◽  
Communication Model ◽  
City Branding ◽  
Symmetrical Communication ◽  
The Impact

The key to success of cities having high brand-value and awareness is the configuration of successful brand structures for the participation of stakeholders into the process. Starting from this point, symmetric and sustainable communication among stakeholders is assumed to play an essential role as a prerequisite for achieving success. The key to ensuring sustainable practice of any discipline is the communication. In this regard, in infrastructure, renovation, finance, tourism, sociology and cultural studies, the symmetry and participation of all of the parties are also considered to be important in terms of communication. Alongside the theoretical framework of city branding, this chapter seeks to contribute to the literature with “Multilateral Symmetrical Communication Model,” which has been created to meet the requirements for city brands. The impact of stakeholders' interaction on the brand image, the impact of ensuring multilateral communication between both parts, and demonstrating applicability of these are the main focuses of this chapter.

OP11 Structural Uncertainty In Economic Modelling For Smoking Cessation

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 6-7
Author(s):  
Becky Pennington ◽  
Alex Filby ◽  
Matthew Taylor ◽  
Lesley Owen
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Recurrent Events ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Cohort Model ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUCTION:Guidance for developing economic models recommend that model structure is carefully considered, and assumptions varied in sensitivity analysis (1). Models in smoking cessation have typically used cohort-level approaches, although recently discrete event simulations (DESs) have been developed (2). DESs allow additional flexibility such as modelling changing risk over time, and recurrent events. Our aim was to explore the impact of varying model structure and assumptions on the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation programs.METHODS:We built a cohort state-transition model which related mortality to smoking status and considered the prevalence (based on smoking status) of five comorbidities associated with smoking, each of which has an associated cost and quality of life decrement. We additionally built a patient-level DES, using the Discretely Integrated Condition Event framework (3). The DES used the same data as the cohort model, except considering incidence for comorbidities rather than prevalence. We considered a population of smokers aged 16 years old and an intervention costing GBP827 on which 27 percent of people quit, compared with no treatment. We produced results using the two models for comparable scenarios, and ran additional scenarios considering different assumptions.RESULTS:In the cohort model, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for intervention versus no treatment was GBP4,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In the DES, modelling mortality linked to smoker status produced an ICER of GBP1,000/QALY and modelling mortality linked to comorbidities produced an ICER of GBP6,000/QALY. In the DES with mortality linked to comorbidities, varying the relative risk of comorbidities with time since quitting gave an ICER of GBP3,000/QALY. Including relapse increased the ICER to GBP21,000/QALY.CONCLUSIONS:The ICER for the smoking cessation program changes when model assumptions are varied, although the choice of DES versus cohort model appears to make a relatively small difference. Inclusion of relapse substantially changes the ICER, demonstrating the importance of long-term effects in economic models.

scholarly journals Economic Modelling of the Delay in Passing the Petroleum Industry Bill in Nigeria and Its Impact on Deep Offshore Investments and Government Take Statistics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oghenerume Ogolo ◽  
Petrus Nzerem
Keyword(s):  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Production Sharing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Offshore Region

Abstract The petroleum industry bill (PIB) in Nigeria aims to reform the petroleum sector of the country and increase government revenue from petroleum investments. Despite the benefits the bill offers to the country, its passage has suffered several setbacks. This research therefore studied the impact of the delay in passing the bill on deep offshore investments. Economic models were built using the fiscal terms in PIB 2009 and 1993 production sharing contract (PSC) arrangement to evaluate the impact of the bill. The model with the 1993 PSC fiscal terms was adjusted to capture the delay in passing the bill. The bill was assumed to be passed on a yearly basis for 10 years (2010 to 2019). The impact of the delay in passing the bill based on the reserve portfolio of firms in the deep offshore region of the country was also evaluated. The delay in passing the PIB reduced the government take. It was seen that for the non-passage of the bill, the government lost about $1227.2 MM. When the bill was passed in 2019, the government had been losing about $11.843 MM on a yearly basis due to the delay in passing the bill.

The differential diagnosis and management of headaches in primary care and their relevance in the UK armed forces

2014 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-307
Author(s):  
J Laird ◽  
MC Evershed
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Differential Diagnosis ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
Diagnosis And Management ◽  
Counter Medication ◽  
Medical Teams ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAs with the general population, headaches are commonly suffered by members of the United Kingdom Armed Forces. These are often managed by patients with over-the-counter medication without the involvement of healthcare professionals. Patients may present to medical teams when deployed because of limited access to over-the-counter medication or because of concerns about the cause of the headache. This article will examine the differential diagnosis and management of headaches in primary care as well as considering the occupational and operational aspects related to the Royal Navy (RN). The aim is to equip General Practitioners (GPs) and General Duties Medical Officers (GDMOs) with the clinical knowledge to diagnose various common forms of headaches and to detect the red flag symptoms that warrant further investigation. This article will also make specific reference to the service person and the impact of headaches on occupational functioning and operational capability.

A Theoretical Approach for Sustainable Communication in City Branding

2017 ◽  
pp. 65-90
Author(s):  
Ayşe Banu Bıçakçı ◽  
Zeynep Genel
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Brand Value ◽  
Communication Model ◽  
City Branding ◽  
Symmetrical Communication ◽  
The Impact

The key to success of cities having high brand-value and awareness is the configuration of successful brand structures for the participation of stakeholders into the process. Starting from this point, symmetric and sustainable communication among stakeholders is assumed to play an essential role as a prerequisite for achieving success. The key to ensuring sustainable practice of any discipline is the communication. In this regard, in infrastructure, renovation, finance, tourism, sociology and cultural studies, the symmetry and participation of all of the parties are also considered to be important in terms of communication. Alongside the theoretical framework of city branding, this chapter seeks to contribute to the literature with “Multilateral Symmetrical Communication Model,” which has been created to meet the requirements for city brands. The impact of stakeholders' interaction on the brand image, the impact of ensuring multilateral communication between both parts, and demonstrating applicability of these are the main focuses of this chapter.

Predictability, certainty, and party autonomy in the sale and supply of goods

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-286
Author(s):  
Ji Lian Yap
Keyword(s):  
Common Law ◽  
Supreme Court Decision ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Commercial Law ◽  
Party Autonomy ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Uk Supreme Court ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Law And Legislation ◽  
The Impact

Predictability, certainty, and party autonomy are important goals in the development of legal principles. This article will examine these concepts and discuss a theoretical framework by which legal developments can be assessed. This theoretical framework will be applied in order to critically consider recent developments in two key areas relating to the sale and supply of goods, namely the action for price, and the characterization of contracts. In examining the interrelation between case law and legislation in these aspects of Commercial Law, the impact of the recent UK Supreme Court decision in PST Energy 7 Shipping v OW Bunker Malta (The Res Cogitans) will be explored. This landmark case considered several provisions of the UK Sale of Goods Act 1979. Many common law jurisdictions, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, have legislation that is very similar to the UK Sale of Goods Act, and Res Cogitans is thus of great interest and concern to those in such common law jurisdictions, since the courts in these jurisdictions are likely to view Res Cogitans as highly persuasive in the interpretation of similar local legislation. Various law reform options (including those inspired by the Canadian Uniform Sale of Goods Act) and suggestions for the drafting of contractual clauses will then be critically considered, with a view to promoting predictability, certainty, and party autonomy in the law relating to the sale and supply of goods.

scholarly journals Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various sheep production types in the UK and France

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. e000036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Alarcon ◽  
Barbara Häsler ◽  
Didier Raboisson ◽  
Agnes Waret-Szkuta ◽  
Fabien Corbière ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Models ◽  
Schmallenberg Virus ◽  
Integrated Production ◽  
Sheep Production ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Meeting the Challenge of Diabetes in Ageing and Diverse Populations: A Review of the Literature from the UK

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Wilkinson ◽  
Muhammad Waqar ◽  
Alan Sinclair ◽  
Gurch Randhawa
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Diabetes Care ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Diverse Populations ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The impact of type 2 diabetes on ageing societies is great and populations across the globe are becoming more diverse. Complications of diabetes unequally affect particular groups in the UK older people, and people with a South Asian background are two population groups with increased risk whose numbers will grow in the future. We explored the evidence about diabetes care for older people with South Asian ethnicity to understand the contexts and mechanisms behind interventions to reduce inequalities. We used a realist approach to review the literature, mapped the main areas where relevant evidence exists, and explored the concepts and mechanisms which underpinned interventions. From this we constructed a theoretical framework for a programme of research and put forward suggestions for what our analysis might mean to providers, researchers, and policy makers. Broad themes of cultural competency; comorbidities and stratification; and access emerged as mid-level mechanisms which have individualised, culturally intelligent, and ethical care at their heart and through which inequalities can be addressed. These provide a theoretical framework for future research to advance knowledge about concordance; culturally meaningful measures of depression and cognitive impairment; and care planning in different contexts which support effective diabetes care for aging and diverse populations.

scholarly journals Making Astrology Look Respectable: On the Extraordinary Abuse of Economic Models in the EU Referendum Debate

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. p15
Author(s):  
Professor David Blake
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

In June 2016, I released an article entitled: “Measurement without Theory: On the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU Referendum debate” in advance of the referendum on 23 June 2016 on whether the UK should leave the European Union. That article heavily criticised two reports that had been released by the UK Treasury on the consequences of Brexit, calling them “dodgy dossiers” for “grossly exaggerating the impact of the economic consequences of Brexit and providing no analysis of the risks from remaining in the EU”. This article reproduces the 2016 article and also provides an update on the state of the UK economy five years after the publication of the reports. It confirms that the only purpose the two Treasury reports was to make astrology look respectable.

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