MONEY ILLUSION AND MARKET SURVIVAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Roland Eisenhuth
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Money Illusion ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Over Time

By studying complete and incomplete dynamic financial markets, I show that if some agents are money-illusioned and neglect inflation, the rational agents who are aware of inflation are driven out of the market in the long run, in the sense that the money-illusioned agents consume the economy's entire endowment. The reason for this finding is that with inflation, the money-illusioned agents always believe that the return on their savings is higher than it actually is. Because these agents trade financial assets in markets with the rational agents, the rational agents end up being borrowers and the money-illusioned agents lenders. Because the rational agents' debt accumulates over time, they become so indebted that the money-illusioned agents eventually consume the economy's entire endowment. If there is deflation, the opposite is true, and the rational agents evolutionarily dominate.

Government Borrowing and Financial Markets

1985 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
Alan Budd ◽  
Geoffrey Dicks ◽  
Giles Keating
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments

This paper considers two questions related to fiscal and monetary poticy in the United Kingdom. The questions are as follows: (i) How do shocks to the economy affect monetary growth?(ii) What effects do changes in the debt/income ratio have on the returns to financial assets?The first question has been previously in relation to the LBS model. The second question has become relevant now that attention is being directed to the possible long-run constraints on fiscal policy. We take the opportunity to study question (i) in response to recent developments of the LBS model. The most significant developments are firstly the incorporation of a model of the financial sector in the LBS model and secondly the ability to incorporate rational expectations into the determination of asset prices in financial markets.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-19
Author(s):  
Jia Miao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract It is well known that government monetary policies significantly impact financial markets. There have been numerous studies examining the relationship between monetary policy and the prices of financial assets, including equities and bonds. Little, however, has been done to explore the impact of major financial assets on changes in monetary policies. This study examines the impacts of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the dynamics of major financial assets in the U. S. For this purpose, cointegration was tested for between equities, bonds and real estate markets in the period 1980 to 2014, whereas the U. S. monetary base M2 was used as an exogenous variable. Our cointegration tests suggest that the exogenous component of the U. S. M2 significantly affected the interaction among major U. S. financial assets. These findings have implications for both policymakers and market practitioners in terms of portfolio allocation rules.

scholarly journals Inter-cohort wealth development in Finland, 1987–2016

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esa Karonen ◽  
Mikko Niemelä
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Financial Wealth ◽  
Interaction Terms ◽  
New Finding ◽  
Household Assets ◽  
Cohort Groups ◽  
Over Time

This article examines inter-cohort wealth development in Finland during the period 1987–2016. As previous research has stated that annual variation has increased over time, we aim toimprove previous research by focusing on gross, net, and financial wealth gaps betweencohorts. The opening of the Finnish financial markets and the introduction of new types ofinvestment instruments since the late 1980s created entirely new circumstances for businessand financial markets. We utilise the time series of the Official Statistics of Finland’s (OFS)Household Assets. We use the marginal effects method with a generalised linear model (GLM),and interaction terms. The results show that inter-cohort wealth inequality in gross- and netwealth has not increased over time, and all differences are attributed to within-year variations.As a new finding, financial wealth shows variations among three distinct investment groups,and higher investment interest can be associated with decreasing initial investment ages amongyounger cohorts. It seems that younger cohorts embraced new financial instruments much morein early age than did their older counterparts. Overall, the results show that financialderegulation considerably increased investment in financial assets among all cohort groups.

scholarly journals Valuing Peace: The Effects of Financial Market Exposure on Votes and Political Attitudes

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 1561-1588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saumitra Jha ◽  
Moses Shayo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Material Incentive ◽  
Nonfinancial Information ◽  
Political Messages ◽  
Economic Risks

Can participation in financial markets lead individuals to reevaluate the costs of conflict, change their political attitudes, and even their votes? Prior to the 2015 Israeli elections, we randomly assigned Palestinian and Israeli financial assets to likely voters and incentivized them to actively trade for up to 7 weeks. No political messages or nonfinancial information were included. The treatment systematically shifted vote choices toward parties more supportive of the peace process. This effect is not due to a direct material incentive to vote a particular way. Rather, the treatment reduces opposition to concessions for peace and changes awareness of the broader economic risks of conflict. While participants who were assigned Palestinian assets are more likely to associate their assets' performance with peace, they are less engaged in the experiment. Combined with the superior performance of Israeli stocks during the study period, the ultimate effects of Israeli and Palestinian assets are similar.

scholarly journals A Central Element of Europe’s Football Ecosystem: Competitive Intensity in the “Big Five”

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3097
Author(s):  
Fabio Wagner ◽  
Holger Preuss ◽  
Thomas Könecke
Keyword(s):  
Big Five ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Competitive Intensity ◽  
Entrepreneurial Ecosystems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Future ◽  
European Football ◽  
Over Time

This study perceives professional European football as one of the most relevant event-related entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) worldwide. It also identifies a healthy sporting competition in the five most popular European football leagues (Spain, England, Germany, Italy, and France), the “big five,” as a key pillar for the functioning of this ecosystem. By applying a quantitative approach, competitive intensity (CI) is measured for all big five leagues for 21 seasons (1998/99 to 2018/19). The chosen method does not only convey an overall indication of the competitive health of the entire league but also provides detailed information on the four important sub-competitions (championship race, qualification for Champions League or Europa League, and the fight against relegation). In all five leagues, seasonal CI tends to decrease over time, and especially over the last decade. The main reason is a decline in the intensity of the championship race while all other sub-competitions show relatively robust CI values. Overall, it can be concluded that the competitive health of the big five is intact, but the dwindling CI of the championship races can harm the EE of professional European football in the long run. Accordingly, it should be closely monitored in the future.

scholarly journals Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Dieci ◽  
Xue-Zhong He
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Equilibrium Market ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Fundamental Price

AbstractThis paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Systems: New Tools for Cross-Lagged Panel Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 109442812199322
Author(s):  
Ali Shamsollahi ◽  
Michael J. Zyphur ◽  
Ozlem Ozkok
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Simulated Dataset ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Over Time

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on “short-run” effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of “long-run” effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on “impulse responses,” which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for “permanent effects,” which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we explore classic econometric long-run effects that show how dynamic systems may respond to interventions that are sustained over time. Third, we treat “accumulated responses” to model how systems may respond to repeated interventions over time. We illustrate tests of each long-run effect in a simulated dataset and we provide all materials online including user-friendly R code that automates estimating, testing, reporting, and plotting all effects (see https://doi.org/10.26188/13506861 ). We conclude by emphasizing the value of aligning specific longitudinal hypotheses with quantitative methods.

An Evaluation of Mono-product Economies & examining the sine qua non for diversification - In West Asian Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushmita .
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
The West ◽  
Capitalist System ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
On Line ◽  
Mode Of Development ◽  
Over Time

The discovery of oil in West Asia has contributed to its integration into the international capitalist system. The mono-commodity, oil, has brought tremendous wealth to West Asia. But a rising population and an ever growing demonstration effect, has caused imports to grow exorbitantly, with oil prices expected to fall, depicted explicitly by recent oil price drop, also over time as interest in climate change increases after RIO-20, and more options of renewable energy sources coming on line like Gas, Solar Energy, wind power and nuclear energy etc. the rentier mode of development followed by west Asian economies is clearly unsustainable. Further the oil producing nations are so over-specialized that they do not possess the necessary flexibility to shift their resources from one sector to another, or to develop substitution if and when the need arises. Moreover, the ability of oil producing countries to respond to deliberate or accidental economic measures taken abroad is limited. This paper theoretically analyses the standing of the West Asian mono product economies, their specific traits, benefits and disbenefit of current condition and looks into the case for diversification of West Asian Region. As diversification is a sine qua non in long Run for the sustainability of the West Asian economies.

scholarly journals Cross-Correlations in Meat Prices in Brazil: A Non-Linear Approach Using Different Time Scales

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Derick Quintino ◽  
José Telo da Gama ◽  
Paulo Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Linear Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Different Time Scales

Brazil is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of cattle, chicken and swine. Therefore, co-movements of Brazilian meat prices are important for both domestic and foreign stakeholders. We propose to analyse the cross-correlation between meat prices in Brazil, namely, cattle, swine and chicken, including also in the analysis information from some commodities, namely maize, soya beans, oil, and the Brazilian exchange rate. Our sample covers the recent period which coincided with extensive macroeconomic and institutional changes in Brazil, from 2011 to 2020, and is divided in two periods: (i) presidential pre-impeachment (P1), occurring in August 2016, and; (ii) post-impeachment (P2). Our results indicate that in P1, only the prices of swine and chicken showed a positive and strong correlation over time, and that cattle showed some positive correlation with chicken only in the short run. In P2, there was also a positive and consistent correlation between swine and chicken, and only a positive association with swine and cattle in the long run. For more spaced time scales (days), the changes in the degree of correlation were significant only in the long run for swine and cattle.

scholarly journals On the evolution of corruption patterns in the post-communist countries

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Cieślik ◽  
Łukasz Goczek
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probability ◽  
Transition Probability Matrix ◽  
Markov Transition Probability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Markov Transition ◽  
Corruption Index ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
Control Of Corruption ◽  
Over Time

In this paper, we study the evolution of corruption patterns in 27 post-communist countries during the period 1996-2012 using the Control of Corruption Index and the corruption category Markov transition probability matrix. This method allows us to generate the long-run distribution of corruption among the post-communist countries. Our empirical findings suggest that corruption in the post-communist countries is a very persistent phenomenon that does not change much over time. Several theoretical explanations for such a result are provided.

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