scholarly journals HETEROGENEITY IN WAGE SETTING BEHAVIOR IN A NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1512-1546
Author(s):  
Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger ◽  
Anderson Grajales-Olarte ◽  
Burak R. Uras
Keyword(s):  
New Keynesian ◽  
Wage Rigidity ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Wage Setting ◽  
Sticky Information ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

In this paper we estimate a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) model with heterogeneity in price and wage setting behavior. In a recent study, Coibion and Gorodnichenko develop a DSGE model, in which firms follow four different types of price setting schemes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule-of-thumb, or flexible prices. We enrich Coibion and Gorodnichenko framework by incorporating heterogeneity in nominal wage setting behavior among households. We solve this DSGE model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques for the US economy from 1955 to 2008. The estimation results show the relevance of heterogeneity in wage setting among households. More importantly, we identify qualitative and quantitative business cycle features allowed by the heterogeneity in wage rigidity, such as the persistence in price and wage inflation, which a standard NK model with only Calvo-type wage rigidity fails to achieve. We also show that modeling wage-rigidity heterogeneity—as opposed to standard Calvo wages—amplifies the macroeconomic output fluctuations resulting from a technology shock while it mitigates the output fluctuations following a monetary tightening.

scholarly journals The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuong V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

Three Applications

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward P. Herbst ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Wage Stickiness ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Technology Growth

This chapter modifies the baseline DSGE model in three dimensions. First, it replaces the AR processes for technology growth and government spending by a VAR process, generalizing the law of motion of the exogenous shocks to make the DSGE model specification more flexible and improve its fit. Second, the chapter adds capital as a factor of production to the baseline New Keynesian DSGE model and includes nominal wage stickiness as well as other forms of rigidities. Finally, it considers a DSGE model that is designed to analyze fiscal as opposed to monetary policy. This model abstracts from nominal rigidities and instead focuses on fiscal policy rules that determine the level of government spending and taxation as a function of the state of the economy.

scholarly journals The effects of military and non-military government expenditures on private consumption

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 442-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Lorusso ◽  
Luca Pieroni
Keyword(s):  
Private Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Spending ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

In this article, we provide evidence that civilian and military government spending have specific characteristics that can affect private consumption differently. Our vector autoregressive (VAR) estimates for the US economy for the period 1960–2013 show that civilian expenditure induces a positive and significant response on private consumption, whereas military spending has a negative impact. We also analyze the effects of these public spending components for the subsamples 1960–79 and 1983–2013, respectively. Our results show that the main transmission channels of both civilian and military expenditures have changed over time. We adopt a new Keynesian approach and develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in order to simulate the empirical evidence. Both the larger persistence of shocks in military spending and the different financing mechanisms, which account for the propensity of policymakers to use budget deficits to finance wars, mimic the differences in the empirical responses of private consumption. Simulated impulse response functions of alternative specification models prove the robustness of our analysis. In particular, we assess the impact of civilian and military shocks in the presence of different (i) shares of heterogeneous households, (ii) price rigidities, and (iii) monetary reactions in response to different government shocks.

scholarly journals Application of the Bayesian New Keynesian DSGE Model to Polish Macroeconomic Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-153
Author(s):  
Janusz Sobieraj ◽  
Dominik Metelski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Significant Degree ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

In the paper we estimate a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium NK DSGE model on the basis of Polish macro data from the period 2000-2019. The model is specified similarly to Galí (2008) with the use of the Bayesian approach. The NK DSGE model combines the advantages of both structural models and time-series models and, therefore, shows a significant degree of alignment with empirical data. The Bayesian estimation is based on the prior distribution of the model input parameters, which are later compared with the posteriors. The results obtained allow for assessing the persistence of responses to technological, inflationary and monetary policy shocks. On the basis of the NK DSGE model, we formulate a perception of macroeconomic interactions, e.g. nominal interest rates’ association with inflation and the output gap. In other words, the NK DSGE model provides a better understanding of the relationship between interest rates, inflation and the output gap. This in turn makes it easier to understand the monetary policy response function.

The new macroeconometrics: A Bayesian approach

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Challenor ◽  
Doug McNeall ◽  
James Gattiker
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Private Organizations ◽  
Final Good ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This article examines the dynamics of the US economy over the last five decades using Bayesian analysis of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It highlights an example application in what is commonly referred to as the new macroeconometrics, which combines macroeconomics with econometrics. The article describes a benchmark New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates four types of agents: households that consume, save, and supply labour to a labour ‘packer’; a labour ‘packer’ that puts together the labour supplied by different households into an homogeneous labour unit; intermediate good producers, who produce goods using capital and aggregated labour; and a final good producer that mixes all the intermediate goods. It also considers the application of the model in policy analysis for public institutions such as central banks, along with private organizations and businesses. Finally, it discusses three avenues for further research in the estimation of DSGE models.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Policy Effectiveness and the Informal Economy in Nigeria: A DSGE Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Omobola Adu ◽  
Philip Alege ◽  
Oluranti Olurinola
Keyword(s):  
Informal Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Formal Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
The Government

Evaluating the approach and conduct of macroeconomic policy is crucial towards the provision of effective economic policies that addresses business cycles. However, to properly evaluate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, there is the need to pay attention to the structure of the economy. In Nigeria, there is a particular case for the introduction of informality in macroeconomic models. Hence, this study presents a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model featuring an informal sector in order to understand how the presence of informality affects the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in Nigeria. The Bayesian estimation of the DSGE model provides evidence that the informal economy tends to play a buffer role or an absorbing role in reducing the effectiveness of a monetary policy shock in contracting output in comparison to an economy without informality. Therefore, this study recommends that with the aim of limiting the role of the informal economy towards absorbing some of the effects of shocks to the domestic economy, the government needs to implement market-friendly policies that would help merge the informal economy with the formal economy.

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzu-Yu Lin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

AbstractIn this paper, we first use a structural vector autoregression model to examine whether the US economy responds asymmetrically to expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. The empirical results show that monetary policy has significant asymmetric effects on output and investment. To provide an explanation of such asymmetries, we consider a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which collateral constraints are occasionally binding over the business cycle. The nonlinear DSGE model is able to match the empirical findings that macroeconomic aggregates react asymmetrically to positive and negative monetary policy shocks.

scholarly journals How influential are COVID–19 data points? A fresh look at an estimated small scale DSGE model for the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1&2) ◽  
pp. 14-37
Author(s):  
Lawrence Dacuycuy
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Shock Propagation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Identification Schemes ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

Shocks emanating from the global pandemic continue to reshape the macroeconomic landscape—dimming national growth prospects, prolonging widespread financial distress among households, firms, and governments and heightening uncertainty. Using a small-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Philippines, we examine the model’s sensitivity to COVID-19 datapoints or extreme observations. Relative to estimates during the base period (2002Q1 to 2019Q4), the inclusion of extreme datapoints worsens the model’s log data density progressively, from the consideration of the first quarter of 2020 to the full sample – an indication that shock propagation mechanisms associated with COVID–19 and other natural disasters should be integrated into the model. Even with the inclusion of said extreme observations, however, the model’s parameters are identified, provided identification schemes are evaluated at posterior median estimates. Judging from the sets of parameter estimates relative to the base sample, the effects of extreme observations are found to be non–uniform, especially the size of the shocks. But there are other parameters, notably those that are embedded in the Taylor rule, which are relatively as stable as some household related parameters. These results imply that the size of standard errors for demand, supply, and monetary policy shocks adjust to partially capture the impact of extreme datapoints.

A NOTE ON PROGRESSIVE TAXATION, NOMINAL-WAGE RIGIDITY, AND BUSINESS CYCLE DESTABILIZATION

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Miroslav Gabrovski ◽  
Jang-Ting Guo
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Wage Rigidity ◽  
Nominal Wage ◽  
Progressive Taxation ◽  
Equilibrium Degree ◽  
Tax Progressivity ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Nominal Wage Rigidity

In the context of a prototypical New Keynesian model, this paper examines the theoretical interrelations between two tractable formulations of progressive taxation on labor income versus (i) the equilibrium degree of nominal-wage rigidity as well as (ii) the resulting volatilities of hours worked and output in response to a monetary shock. In sharp contrast to the traditional stabilization view, we analytically show that linearly progressive taxation always operates like an automatic destabilizer which leads to higher cyclical fluctuations within the macroeconomy. We also obtain the same business cycle destabilization result under continuously progressive taxation if the initial degree of tax progressivity is sufficiently low.

Interest Rate Liberalization and Fiscal Policy in China: A New Keynesian DSGE Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 985-991
Author(s):  
Bing Xu ◽  
◽  
Qiuqin He ◽  
Xiaowen Hu ◽  
Shangfeng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

By building a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, we analyze the effect of interest rate liberalization on fiscal policy. First, we find that when the interest rate increases, technology shocks, monetary policy shocks, and fiscal policy shocks can effectively stabilize economic fluctuations. Second, when the interest rate rises, fiscal policy enhances the positive effect on output first, with decreasing the negative effect on output later. Third, fiscal policy increases the original crowding-out effect on consumption and investment. However, this increase in the crowding-out effect does not restrain the positive effect of fiscal policy on output, which benefits from interest rate liberalization.

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