A Semi-Markov Multiple State Model for Reverse Mortgage Terminations

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Ji ◽  
Mary Hardy ◽  
Johnny Siu-Hang Li

AbstractReverse mortgages provide a mechanism for seniors to release the equity that has been built up in their home. At termination, the mortgagors are usually guaranteed to owe no more than the value of their property. The value of the reverse mortgage guarantee is heavily dependent on the maturity or termination date, which is uncertain. In this paper, we model reverse mortgage terminations using a semi-Markov multiple state model which incorporates three different modes of exit: death, entrance into a long-term care facility, and voluntary prepayment. We apply the proposed model specifically to develop the valuation formulas for roll-up mortgages in the UK and Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs) in the USA. We examine the significance of each mode of termination by valuing the contracts allowing progressively for each mode. On the basis of our model and assumptions, we find that both health related terminations and voluntary (non-health related) terminations significantly impact the contract value. In addition we analyze the premium structure for US reverse mortgage insurance, and demonstrate that premiums appear to be too high for some borrowers, and substantial cross-subsidies may result.

Author(s):  
Hsiu-Yueh Liu ◽  
Ping-Ho Chen ◽  
Wun-Jyun Chen ◽  
Shan-Shan Huang ◽  
Jen-Hao Chen ◽  
...  

An oral hygiene board game was designed as an intervention tool and applied to explore the effectiveness for the oral health related knowledge (OHK) score and plaque index (PI) of adults with intellectual disability (ID). This one-group pre/post-test design study was conducted in a residential long-term care facility for 42 participants. The study had one pre-test (baseline) and three post-tests evaluated in both control and intervention stages, respectively. The participants participated in a 60-min oral hygiene board game twice a week during the intervention stage. Total OHK score and PI of the participants were recorded to determine the effectiveness of intervention. There were no differences in OHK score and PI between the two stages at baseline. The results in intervention stage demonstrated a significant gradual increase and reduction in the OHK score when compared with the control stage. A statistically significant improvement in the OHK score and PI (42.29% and −33.28%, respectively) at the end of intervention between two stages was recorded. This study proved a board game is deemed an effective education method applicable to promote the OHK and skills of ID adults.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S96-S96
Author(s):  
Katryna A Gouin ◽  
Sarah Kabbani; Angela Anttila ◽  
Josephine Mak ◽  
Elisabeth Mungai ◽  
Ti Tanissha McCray ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Since 2016, nursing homes (NHs) enrolled in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s NHSN Long-term Care Facility (LTCF) Component have reported on their implementation of the core elements of antibiotic stewardship. In 2016, 42% of NHs reported implementing all seven core elements. Recent regulations require antibiotic stewardship programs in NHs. The objectives of this analysis were to track national progress in implementation of the core elements and evaluate how time dedicated to infection prevention and control (IPC) is associated with the implementation of the core elements. Methods We used the NHSN LTCF 2016–2018 Annual Surveys to assess NH characteristics and implementation of the core elements, defined as self-reported implementation of at least one corresponding stewardship activity. We reported absolute differences in percent implementation. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate the association between weekly IPC hours and the implementation of all seven core elements, while controlling for confounding by facility characteristics. Results We included 7,506 surveys from 2016–2018. In 2018, 71% of NHs reported implementation of all seven core elements, a 28% increase from 2016 (Fig. 1). The greatest increases in implementation from 2016–2018 were in Education (+19%), Reporting (+18%) and Drug Expertise (+15%) (Fig. 2). Ninety-eight percent of NHs had an individual responsible for antibiotic stewardship activities (Accountability), with 30% indicating that the role was fulfilled by an infection preventionist. Furthermore, 71% of NHs reported pharmacist involvement in improving antibiotic use, an increase of 27% since 2016. NHs that reported at least 20 hours of IPC activity per week were 14% more likely to implement all seven core elements, when controlling for facility ownership and affiliation, 95% CI: (1.07, 1.20). Conclusion NHs reported substantial progress in antibiotic stewardship implementation from 2016–2018. Improvements in accessing drug expertise, providing education and reporting antibiotic use may reflect increased stewardship awareness and use of resources among NH providers under new regulatory requirements. NHs with at least 20 hours dedicated to IPC per week may have greater capacity to implement all core elements. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 287-298
Author(s):  
Jonathan Bergman ◽  
Marcel Ballin ◽  
Anna Nordström ◽  
Peter Nordström

AbstractWe conducted a nationwide, registry-based study to investigate the importance of 34 potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis, hospitalization (with or without intensive care unit [ICU] admission), and subsequent all-cause mortality. The study population comprised all COVID-19 cases confirmed in Sweden by mid-September 2020 (68,575 non-hospitalized, 2494 ICU hospitalized, and 13,589 non-ICU hospitalized) and 434,081 randomly sampled general-population controls. Older age was the strongest risk factor for hospitalization, although the odds of ICU hospitalization decreased after 60–69 years and, after controlling for other risk factors, the odds of non-ICU hospitalization showed no trend after 40–49 years. Residence in a long-term care facility was associated with non-ICU hospitalization. Male sex and the presence of at least one investigated comorbidity or prescription medication were associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization. Three comorbidities associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization were asthma, hypertension, and Down syndrome. History of cancer was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization, but cancer in the past year was associated with non-ICU hospitalization, after controlling for other risk factors. Cardiovascular disease was weakly associated with non-ICU hospitalization for COVID-19, but not with ICU hospitalization, after adjustment for other risk factors. Excess mortality was observed in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized COVID-19 cases. These results confirm that severe COVID-19 is related to age, sex, and comorbidity in general. The study provides new evidence that hypertension, asthma, Down syndrome, and residence in a long-term care facility are associated with severe COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitch van Hensbergen ◽  
Casper D. J. den Heijer ◽  
Petra Wolffs ◽  
Volker Hackert ◽  
Henriëtte L. G. ter Waarbeek ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The Dutch province of Limburg borders the German district of Heinsberg, which had a large cluster of COVID-19 cases linked to local carnival activities before any cases were reported in the Netherlands. However, Heinsberg was not included as an area reporting local or community transmission per the national case definition at the time. In early March, two residents from a long-term care facility (LTCF) in Sittard, a Dutch town located in close vicinity to the district of Heinsberg, tested positive for COVID-19. In this study we aimed to determine whether cross-border introduction of the virus took place by analysing the LTCF outbreak in Sittard, both epidemiologically and microbiologically. Methods Surveys and semi-structured oral interviews were conducted with all present LTCF residents by health care workers during regular points of care for information on new or unusual signs and symptoms of disease. Both throat and nasopharyngeal swabs were taken from residents suspect of COVID-19, based on regional criteria, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 by Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction. Additionally, whole genome sequencing was performed using a SARS-CoV-2 specific amplicon-based Nanopore sequencing approach. Moreover, twelve random residents were sampled for possible asymptomatic infections. Results Out of 99 residents, 46 got tested for COVID-19. Out of the 46 tested residents, nineteen (41%) tested positive for COVID-19, including 3 asymptomatic residents. CT-values for asymptomatic residents seemed higher compared to symptomatic residents. Eleven samples were sequenced, along with three random samples from COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the regional hospital at the time of the LTCF outbreak. All samples were linked to COVID-19 cases from the cross-border region of Heinsberg, Germany. Conclusions Sequencing combined with epidemiological data was able to virtually prove cross-border transmission at the start of the Dutch COVID-19 epidemic. Our results highlight the need for cross-border collaboration and adjustment of national policy to emerging region-specific needs along borders in order to establish coordinated implementation of infection control measures to limit the spread of COVID-19.


Author(s):  
Martin Martinot ◽  
Stéphane Carnein ◽  
Christian Kempf ◽  
Pierre Gantner ◽  
Floriane Gallais ◽  
...  

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