Birth cohort patterns suggest that infant survival predicts adult mortality rates

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (03) ◽  
pp. 174-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Meza ◽  
B. Pourbohloul ◽  
R. C. Brunham
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Infant Survival

scholarly journals Age, Period and Cohort Analysis of Young Adult Mortality due to HIV and TB in South Africa: 1997-2015

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshifhiwa Nkwenika ◽  
Samuel Manda
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Young Adult ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Hiv Mortality ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Hiv Aids

Abstract Background: Young adult mortality is very significant in South Africa due to the influence of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis (TB), Injuries and Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Previous analyses have mainly focused on assessing the time effect of age and period separately. However, health outcomes often depend on three-time scales, namely age, period, and cohort, which are linearly interlinked. Using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, this study estimated the time effects of age, period, and cohort on HIV and TB mortality among young adults in South Africa. Methods: HIV and TB mortality data and mid population estimates were obtained from Statistics South Africa for the period 1997 to 2015. Mortality data are based on deaths reported to the Department of Home Affairs where the underlying cause of death was HIV or TB based on the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) definition. Observed HIV/AIDS deaths were adjusted for under-reporting, misclassification, and systematic proportion from ill-defined natural deaths. Three-year age, period, and birth cohort intervals for 15-64 years, 1997-2015 and 1934-2000 respectively were used. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis using the Poisson distribution was used to compute the effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality due to TB and HIV. Results: A total of 5, 825,502 adult deaths were recorded from the period 1997 to 2015 of which, 910,731 (15.6%) and 252,101 (4.3%) were attributed to TB and HIV, respectively. For both observed mortality rate and estimated relative effects, concave down associations were found between TB, HIV mortality rates and period, age with peaks, at 36-38 and 30-32 years, respectively. A downward trend and inverted V-shape between TB and HIV mortality by birth cohort was found, respectively. Conclusions: The study found an inverse U-shaped association between TB-related mortality and age, period, and general downward trend with a birth cohort for deaths reported between 1997 and 2015. A concave down relationship between HIV-related mortality and age, period, and inverted V-shaped with birth cohort was found. Our findings have shed more light on HIV and TB mortality rates across different age groups, the effect of changes in the overall TB and HIV management and care on the mortality rates, and whether the mortality rates depend on the year an individual was born.

scholarly journals Early cohort mortality predicts the rate of aging in the cohort: a historical analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 380-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Beltrán-Sánchez ◽  
E. M. Crimmins ◽  
C. E. Finch
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Adult Health ◽  
Mortality Level ◽  
Poor Nutrition

Early environmental influences on later-life health and mortality are well recognized in the doubling of life expectancy since 1800. To further define these relationships, we analyzed the associations between early-life mortality and both the estimated mortality level at age 40 and the exponential acceleration in mortality rates with age characterized by the Gompertz model. Using mortality data from 630 cohorts born throughout the 19th and early 20th century in nine European countries, we developed a multilevel model that accounts for cohort and period effects in later-life mortality. We show that early-life mortality, which is linked to exposure to infection and poor nutrition, predicts both the estimated cohort mortality level at age 40 and the subsequent Gompertz rate of mortality acceleration during aging. After controlling for effects of country and period, the model accounts for the majority of variance in the Gompertz parameters (about 90% of variation in the estimated level of mortality at age 40 and about 78% of variation in the Gompertz slope). The gains in cohort survival to older ages are entirely due to large declines in adult mortality level, because the rates of mortality acceleration at older ages became faster. These findings apply to cohorts born in both the 19th century and the early 20th century. This analysis defines new links in the developmental origins of adult health and disease in which effects of early-life circumstances, such as exposure to infections or poor nutrition, persist into mid-adulthood and remain evident in the cohort mortality rates from ages 40 to 90.

scholarly journals Age-Independent Adult Mortality in a Long-Lived Herb

Diversity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edelfeldt ◽  
Lindell ◽  
Dahlgren
Keyword(s):  
General Pattern ◽  
Cost Of Reproduction ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Annual Mortality ◽  
Age Independent ◽  
Long Term Studies

Relative to mammals and birds, little is known about the mortality trajectories of perennial plants, as there are few long-term demographic studies following multiple yearly cohorts from birth to death. This is particularly important because if reproductively mature individuals show actuarial senescence, current estimations of life spans assuming constant survival would be incorrect. There is also a lack of studies documenting how life history trade-offs and disturbance influence the mortality trajectories of plants. We conducted Bayesian survival trajectory analyses (BaSTA) of a 33-year individual-based dataset of Pulsatilla vulgaris ssp. gotlandica. Mortality trajectories corresponded to “Type III” survivorship patterns, with rapidly decreasing annual mortality rates for young plants, but with constant mortality for reproductively mature individuals. We found trade-off effects resulting in a cost of growth for non-reproductive plants but no apparent cost of reproduction. Contrarily to our expectation, young plants that had previously shrunk in size had a lower mortality. However, accounting for trade-offs and disturbance only had minor effects on the mortality trajectories. We conclude that BaSTA is a useful tool for assessing mortality patterns in plants if only partial age information is available. Furthermore, if constant mortality is a general pattern in polycarpic plants, long-term studies may not be necessary to assess their age-dependent demography.

scholarly journals Mortality Projections for Small Populations: An Application to the Maltese Elderly

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Menzietti ◽  
Maria Morabito ◽  
Manuela Stranges
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Older Adult ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Mortality Projections

In small populations, mortality rates are characterized by a great volatility, the datasets are often available for a few years and suffer from missing data. Therefore, standard mortality models may produce high uncertain and biologically improbable projections. In this paper, we deal with the mortality projections of the Maltese population, a small country with less than 500,000 inhabitants, whose data on exposures and observed deaths suffers from all the typical problems of small populations. We concentrate our analysis on older adult mortality. Starting from some recent suggestions in the literature, we assume that the mortality of a small population can be modeled starting from the mortality of a bigger one (the reference population) adding a spread. The first part of the paper is dedicated to the choice of the reference population, then we test alternative mortality models. Finally, we verify the capacity of the proposed approach to reduce the volatility of the mortality projections. The results obtained show that the model is able to significantly reduce the uncertainty of projected mortality rates and to ensure their coherent and biologically reasonable evolution.

scholarly journals Adult Mortality Rates in Leghorn × Red Reciprocal Crosses at Three North Central Stations

1977 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.C. Lowe ◽  
W.C. Morgan ◽  
W.H. McGibbon
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
North Central ◽  
Reciprocal Crosses

Low Childhood IQ and Early Adult Mortality: The Role of Explanatory Factors in the 1958 British Birth Cohort

PEDIATRICS ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 124 (3) ◽  
pp. e380-e388 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jokela ◽  
G. D. Batty ◽  
I. J. Deary ◽  
C. R. Gale ◽  
M. Kivimaki
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Explanatory Factors

Adult mortality rates in young colonies of a swarm-founding social wasp (Polybia occidentalis)

2006 ◽  
Vol 260 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Bouwma ◽  
Peter E. Bouwma ◽  
Erik V. Nordheim ◽  
Robert L. Jeanne
Keyword(s):  
Social Wasp ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Polybia Occidentalis

scholarly journals Black-White Disparities in Adult Mortality: Implications of Differential Record Linkage for Understanding the Mortality Crossover

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph T. Lariscy
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Record Linkage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Black Adults ◽  
Linkage Quality ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
White Adults

Mortality rates among black individuals exceed those of white individuals throughout much of the life course. The black-white disparity in mortality rates is widest in young adulthood, and then rates converge with increasing age until a crossover occurs at about age 85 years, after which black older adults exhibit a lower mortality rate relative to white older adults. Data quality issues in survey-linked mortality studies may hinder accurate estimation of this disparity and may even be responsible for the observed black-white mortality crossover, especially if the linkage of surveys to death records during mortality follow-up is less accurate for black older adults. This study assesses black-white differences in the linkage of the 1986–2009 National Health Interview Survey to the National Death Index through 2011 and the implications of racial/ethnic differences in record linkage for mortality disparity estimates. Match class and match score (i.e., indicators of linkage quality) differ by race/ethnicity, with black adults exhibiting less certain matches than white adults in all age groups. The magnitude of the black-white mortality disparity varies with alternative linkage scenarios, but convergence and crossover continue to be observed in each case. Beyond black-white differences in linkage quality, this study also identifies declines over time in linkage quality and even eligibility for linkage among all adults. Although linkage quality is lower among black adults than white adults, differential record linkage does not account for the black-white mortality crossover.

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