scholarly journals Mortality Projections for Small Populations: An Application to the Maltese Elderly

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Menzietti ◽  
Maria Morabito ◽  
Manuela Stranges
Keyword(s):  
Missing Data ◽  
Older Adult ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Mortality Projections

In small populations, mortality rates are characterized by a great volatility, the datasets are often available for a few years and suffer from missing data. Therefore, standard mortality models may produce high uncertain and biologically improbable projections. In this paper, we deal with the mortality projections of the Maltese population, a small country with less than 500,000 inhabitants, whose data on exposures and observed deaths suffers from all the typical problems of small populations. We concentrate our analysis on older adult mortality. Starting from some recent suggestions in the literature, we assume that the mortality of a small population can be modeled starting from the mortality of a bigger one (the reference population) adding a spread. The first part of the paper is dedicated to the choice of the reference population, then we test alternative mortality models. Finally, we verify the capacity of the proposed approach to reduce the volatility of the mortality projections. The results obtained show that the model is able to significantly reduce the uncertainty of projected mortality rates and to ensure their coherent and biologically reasonable evolution.

scholarly journals MODELLING MORTALITY FOR PENSION SCHEMES

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 601-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Hunt ◽  
David Blake
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Stochastic Mortality ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Stochastic Mortality Models ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Two Populations

AbstractFor many pension schemes, a shortage of data limits their ability to use sophisticated stochastic mortality models to assess and manage their exposure to longevity risk. In this study, we develop a mortality model designed for such pension schemes, which compares the evolution of mortality rates in a sub-population with that observed in a larger reference population. We apply this approach to data from the CMI Self-Administered Pension Scheme study, using U.K. population data as a reference. We then use the approach to investigate the potential differences in the evolution of mortality rates between these two populations and find that, in many practical situations, basis risk is much less of a problem than is commonly believed.

Evolutionary genetics of small populations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Frankham ◽  
Jonathan D. Ballou ◽  
Katherine Ralls ◽  
Mark D. B. Eldridge ◽  
Michele R. Dudash ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Evolutionary Genetics ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Genetic Management ◽  
Evolutionary Genetic ◽  
Loss Of Genetic Diversity ◽  
Number Of Individuals

Genetic management of fragmented populations involves the application of evolutionary genetic theory and knowledge to alleviate problems due to inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity in small population fragments. Populations evolve through the effects of mutation, natural selection, chance (genetic drift) and gene flow (migration). Large outbreeding, sexually reproducing populations typically contain substantial genetic diversity, while small populations typically contain reduced levels. Genetic impacts of small population size on inbreeding, loss of genetic diversity and population differentiation are determined by the genetically effective population size, which is usually much smaller than the number of individuals.

scholarly journals Grandparenting and Mortality: How Does Race-Ethnicity Matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-won Emily Choi
Keyword(s):  
Older Adult ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Intergenerational Relationships ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Multigenerational Household ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Retirement Study

Little is known about whether and how intergenerational relationships influence older adult mortality. This study examines the association between caring for grandchildren (i.e., grandparenting) and mortality and how the link differs by race-ethnicity. Drawing from the Health and Retirement Study (1998–2014, N = 13,705), I found different racial-ethnic patterns in the effects of grandparenting on mortality risk. White grandparents who provide intensive noncoresident grandparenting (i.e., over 500 hours of babysitting per two years) and multigenerational household grandparenting have a lower risk of mortality compared to noncaregiving grandparents. In contrast, black grandparents have a higher mortality risk than their noncaregiving counterparts when providing intensive noncoresident, multigenerational household, and skipped-generation household (i.e., grandparent-headed family) grandparenting. Caregiving Hispanic grandparents are not significantly different from their noncaregiving counterparts in mortality risk. These findings suggest that important variations in social and cultural contexts for racial-ethnic groups shape the consequences of grandparenting for older adult mortality.

Mortality in eating disorders

1988 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 947-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. Patton
Keyword(s):  
Eating Disorders ◽  
Anorexia Nervosa ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Tertiary Referral Centre ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Crude Mortality

SynopsisCrude mortality rates and mortality rates standardized against a British reference population have been calculated for a group of 460 consecutive patients with eating disorders seen between 1971 and 1981 in a tertiary referral centre for eating disorders. Crude mortality rates were 3·3% and 3·1% in the anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa groups respectively. Standardized rates demonstrated a six-fold increase in mortality in the anorexia nervosa group. The most common cause of death in this group was found to be suicide, with the risk of death remaining high for at least eight years after initial assessment. Specific associations of increased mortality were: being in the lowest weight group at the time of presentation, and having recurrent hospital admissions for eating problems.

scholarly journals Early cohort mortality predicts the rate of aging in the cohort: a historical analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 380-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Beltrán-Sánchez ◽  
E. M. Crimmins ◽  
C. E. Finch
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Adult Health ◽  
Mortality Level ◽  
Poor Nutrition

Early environmental influences on later-life health and mortality are well recognized in the doubling of life expectancy since 1800. To further define these relationships, we analyzed the associations between early-life mortality and both the estimated mortality level at age 40 and the exponential acceleration in mortality rates with age characterized by the Gompertz model. Using mortality data from 630 cohorts born throughout the 19th and early 20th century in nine European countries, we developed a multilevel model that accounts for cohort and period effects in later-life mortality. We show that early-life mortality, which is linked to exposure to infection and poor nutrition, predicts both the estimated cohort mortality level at age 40 and the subsequent Gompertz rate of mortality acceleration during aging. After controlling for effects of country and period, the model accounts for the majority of variance in the Gompertz parameters (about 90% of variation in the estimated level of mortality at age 40 and about 78% of variation in the Gompertz slope). The gains in cohort survival to older ages are entirely due to large declines in adult mortality level, because the rates of mortality acceleration at older ages became faster. These findings apply to cohorts born in both the 19th century and the early 20th century. This analysis defines new links in the developmental origins of adult health and disease in which effects of early-life circumstances, such as exposure to infections or poor nutrition, persist into mid-adulthood and remain evident in the cohort mortality rates from ages 40 to 90.

scholarly journals Rescuing Christensenia aesculifolia (Marattiaceae), a plant species with an extremely small population in China

Oryx ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 436-438
Author(s):  
Lei Cai ◽  
Guiliang Zhang ◽  
Jianying Xiang ◽  
Zhiling Dao ◽  
Weibang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Species Status ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Field Investigations ◽  
Threatened Habitat ◽  
Extant Population

AbstractThe rare and threatened fern Christensenia aesculifolia of South-east Asia is listed in China as a second-ranked plant for national protection and is also categorized as one of 62 plant species with extremely small populations by the Yunnan provincial government. Field investigations during 2014–2017 failed to relocate one previously known population, and revealed that the single known extant population of C. aesculifolia contains only 10 individual plants. The most urgent conservation requirement for this species is to conserve the threatened habitat of the remnant population. Further field surveys and research are also required for an improved understanding of the species’ status.

scholarly journals Atypical presentations in the hospitalised older adult testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: a retrospective observational study in Glasgow, Scotland

2020 ◽  
pp. 003693302096289
Author(s):  
Peter Davis ◽  
Rory Gibson ◽  
Emily Wright ◽  
Amy Bryan ◽  
Jamie Ingram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Older Adult ◽  
Respiratory Symptoms ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Prognostic Features ◽  
Presenting Symptoms ◽  
Atypical Presentations

Introduction: Understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 manifests itself in older adults was unknown at the outset of the pandemic. We undertook a retrospective observational analysis of all patients admitted to older people’s services with confirmed COVID-19 in one of the largest hospitals in Europe. We detail presenting symptoms, prognostic features and vulnerability to nosocomial spread. Methods: We retrospectively collected data for each patient with a positive SARSCoV-2 RT PCR between 18th March and the 20th April 2020 in a department of medicine for the elderly in Glasgow. Results: 222 patients were included in our analysis. Age ranged from 56 to 99 years (mean = 82) and 148 were female (67%). 119 patients had a positive swab for SARS-CoV-2 within the first 14 days of admission, only 32% of these patients presented with primarily a respiratory type illness. 103 patients (46%) tested positive after 14 days of admission – this was felt to represent likely nosocomial infection. 95 patients (43%) died by day 30 after diagnosis. Discussion: This data indicates that older people were more likely to present with non-respiratory symptoms. High clinical frailty scores, severe lymphopenia and cumulative comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. Several contributing factors will have led to nosocomial transmission.

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