Long- and Short-Term Risk Factors in the Prediction of Inpatient Suicide

Crisis ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Cassells ◽  
Brodie Paterson ◽  
Dawn Dowding ◽  
Rhona Morrison
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Inpatient Settings ◽  
Inpatient Suicide ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Abstract. The prediction of suicide remains a major challenge for health care professionals in inpatient settings. A clearer identification of factors specific to inpatient suicide is required to improve both practice and research within this area. This paper provides an overview of the inpatient suicide literature to date focusing on two particularly salient themes: Long term and short term prediction of suicide. Since the concept of short-term suicide risk dominates clinical practice, issues in relation to dynamic risk factors are emphasized.

scholarly journals Predicting short-term suicidal thoughts in adolescents using machine learning: developing decision tools to identify daily level risk after hospitalization

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
E. K. Czyz ◽  
H. J. Koo ◽  
N. Al-Dajani ◽  
C. A. King ◽  
I. Nahum-Shani
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Suicidal Ideation ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Equivalent Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Suicidal Thoughts ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Tools

Abstract Background Mobile technology offers unique opportunities for monitoring short-term suicide risk in daily life. In this study of suicidal adolescent inpatients, theoretically informed risk factors were assessed daily following discharge to predict near-term suicidal ideation and inform decision algorithms for identifying elevations in daily level risk, with implications for real-time suicide-focused interventions. Methods Adolescents (N = 78; 67.9% female) completed brief surveys texted daily for 4 weeks after discharge (n = 1621 observations). Using multi-level classification and regression trees (CARTSs) with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, we tested (a) a simple prediction model incorporating previous-day scores for each of 10 risk factors, and (b) a more complex model incorporating, for each of these factors, a time-varying person-specific mean over prior days together with deviation from that mean. Models also incorporated missingness and contextual (study week, day of the week) indicators. The outcome was the presence/absence of next-day suicidal ideation. Results The best-performing model (cross-validated AUC = 0.86) was a complex model that included ideation duration, hopelessness, burdensomeness, and self-efficacy to refrain from suicidal action. An equivalent model that excluded ideation duration had acceptable overall performance (cross-validated AUC = 0.78). Models incorporating only previous-day scores, with and without ideation duration (cross-validated AUC of 0.82 and 0.75, respectively), showed relatively weaker performance. Conclusions Results suggest that specific combinations of dynamic risk factors assessed in adolescents' daily life have promising utility in predicting next-day suicidal thoughts. Findings represent an important step in the development of decision tools identifying short-term risk as well as guiding timely interventions sensitive to proximal elevations in suicide risk in daily life.

scholarly journals Novel robust time series analysis for long-term and short-term prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Okamura ◽  
Yutaka Osada ◽  
Shota Nishijima ◽  
Shinto Eguchi
Keyword(s):  
Robust Regression ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
New Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Least Absolute Deviations ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Long Term Prediction

AbstractNonlinear phenomena are universal in ecology. However, their inference and prediction are generally difficult because of autocorrelation and outliers. A traditional least squares method for parameter estimation is capable of improving short-term prediction by estimating autocorrelation, whereas it has weakness to outliers and consequently worse long-term prediction. In contrast, a traditional robust regression approach, such as the least absolute deviations method, alleviates the influence of outliers and has potentially better long-term prediction, whereas it makes accurately estimating autocorrelation difficult and possibly leads to worse short-term prediction. We propose a new robust regression approach that estimates autocorrelation accurately and reduces the influence of outliers. We then compare the new method with the conventional least squares and least absolute deviations methods by using simulated data and real ecological data. Simulations and analysis of real data demonstrate that the new method generally has better long-term and short-term prediction ability for nonlinear estimation problems using spawner–recruitment data. The new method provides nearly unbiased autocorrelation even for highly contaminated simulated data with extreme outliers, whereas other methods fail to estimate autocorrelation accurately.

The association of sexual preference and dynamic risk factors with undetected child pornography offending

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. F. Kuhle ◽  
E. Schlinzig ◽  
G. Kaiser ◽  
T. Amelung ◽  
A. Konrad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Sexual Preference ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk

Assessing change in dynamic risk factors in forensic psychiatric inpatients: relationship with psychopathy and recidivism

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Mastromanno ◽  
Delene M. Brookstein ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
Rachel Campbell ◽  
Chi Meng Chu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Psychiatric Inpatients ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

scholarly journals Influence of lifestyle risk factors on work ability and sick leave in a general working population in Norway: a 5-year longitudinal study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e045678
Author(s):  
Marit Müller De Bortoli ◽  
Inger M. Oellingrath ◽  
Anne Kristin Moeller Fell ◽  
Alex Burdorf ◽  
Suzan J. W. Robroek
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Sick Leave ◽  
Work Ability ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lifestyle Risk Factors ◽  
Lifestyle Risk

ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to assess (1) whether lifestyle risk factors are related to work ability and sick leave in a general working population over time, and (2) these associations within specific disease groups (ie, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and mental illness).SettingTelemark county, in the south-eastern part of Norway.DesignLongitudinal study with 5 years follow-up.ParticipantsThe Telemark study is a longitudinal study of the general working population in Telemark county, Norway, aged 16 to 50 years at baseline in 2013 (n=7952) and after 5-year follow-up.Outcome measureSelf-reported information on work ability (moderate and poor) and sick leave (short-term and long-term) was assessed at baseline, and during a 5-year follow-up.ResultsObesity (OR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.32 to 2.05) and smoking (OR=1.62, 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.96) were associated with long-term sick leave and, less strongly, with short-term sick leave. An unhealthy diet (OR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.01 to 2.43), and smoking (OR=1.67, 95% CI: 1.24 to 2.25) were associated with poor work ability and, to a smaller extent, with moderate work ability. A higher lifestyle risk score was associated with both sick leave and reduced work ability. Only few associations were found between unhealthy lifestyle factors and sick leave or reduced work ability within disease groups.ConclusionLifestyle risk factors were associated with sick leave and reduced work ability. To evaluate these associations further, studies assessing the effect of lifestyle interventions on sick leave and work ability are needed.

CLINICAL PROFILE OF PATIENTS OF YOUNG STROKE.

2021 ◽  
pp. 68-70
Author(s):  
Nitin Hiraman Suryawanshi ◽  
Amit Aggarwal ◽  
Abhijit Kadam
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Young Patients ◽  
Behavioural Pattern ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Stroke In Young

A study of stroke in young patients has recently become a subject of interest. This is due to a lot of impact on the individual and society. Study of stroke in young patients can lead to therapeutical results affecting both short term and long-term outcomes. Our study is hospital based retrospective study for duration of 1 year. Thi Methods: Results: s study revealed stroke in young in 25.16% of all stroke cases, with cerebral infarction in 56% and followed by intracerebral haemorrhage in 25.64%, and cerebral venous thrombosis in 18%. The most common presenting symptom was hemiparesis. The most prevalent risk factor for stroke in young was hypertension followed by diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption and smoking. Stroke in young requires a differe Conclusion: nt approach to investigate and treat. This is due to different underlying etilogy as compared to elderly. Although traditional risk factors are associated with stroke, behavioural pattern such as smoking and alcohol may cause and promote development of stroke in young.

Examining the Dynamic Nature of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Risk Factors in Women’s Collegiate Soccer

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Elena M. D’Argenio ◽  
Timothy G. Eckard ◽  
Barnett S. Frank ◽  
William E. Prentice ◽  
Darin A. Padua
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Anterior Cruciate Ligament ◽  
Range Of Motion ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
External Rotation ◽  
Cruciate Ligament ◽  
Acl Injury ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Anterior Cruciate

Context: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are a common and devastating injury in women’s soccer. Several risk factors for ACL injury have been identified, but have not yet been examined as potentially dynamic risk factors, which may change throughout a collegiate soccer season. Design: Prospective cohort study. Methods: Nine common clinical screening assessments for ACL injury risk, consisting of range of motion, movement quality, and power, were assessed in 29 Division I collegiate women’s soccer players. Preseason and midseason values were compared for significant differences. Change scores for each risk factor were also correlated with cumulative training loads during the first 10 weeks of a competitive soccer season. Results: Hip external rotation range of motion and power had statistically significant and meaningful differences at midseason compared with preseason, indicating they are dynamic risk factors. There were no significant associations between the observed risk factor changes and cumulative training load. Conclusions: Hip external rotation range of motion and power are dynamic risk factors for ACL injury in women’s collegiate soccer athletes. Serial screening of these risk factors may elucidate stronger associations with injury risk and improve prognostic accuracy of screening tools.

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