scholarly journals Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 931-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Richardson ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Martin B. Stolpe
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Response

scholarly journals Transferability Intercomparison: An Opportunity for New Insight on the Global Water Cycle and Energy Budget

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Takle ◽  
J. Roads ◽  
B. Rockel ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
R. W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Water Cycle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Water

A new approach, called transferability intercomparisons, is described for advancing both understanding and modeling of the global water cycle and energy budget. Under this approach, individual regional climate models perform simulations with all modeling parameters and parameterizations held constant over a specific period on several prescribed domains representing different climatic regions. The transferability framework goes beyond previous regional climate model intercomparisons to provide a global method for testing and improving model parameterizations by constraining the simulations within analyzed boundaries for several domains. Transferability intercomparisons expose the limits of our current regional modeling capacity by examining model accuracy on a wide range of climate conditions and realizations. Intercomparison of these individual model experiments provides a means for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of models outside their “home domains” (domain of development and testing). Reference sites that are conducting coordinated measurements under the continental-scale experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel provide data for evaluation of model abilities to simulate specific features of the water and energy cycles. A systematic intercomparison across models and domains more clearly exposes collective biases in the modeling process. By isolating particular regions and processes, regional model transferability intercomparisons can more effectively explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of predictability. A general improvement of model ability to simulate diverse climates will provide more confidence that models used for future climate scenarios might be able to simulate conditions on a particular domain that are beyond the range of previously observed climates.

scholarly journals Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Zhang ◽  
H. S. Sundqvist ◽  
A. Moberg ◽  
H. Körnich ◽  
J. Nilsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Model Simulations

Abstract. The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

scholarly journals Climate response of five oak species in the eastern deciduous forest of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Speer ◽  
Henri D. Grissino-Mayer ◽  
Kenneth H. Orvis ◽  
Cathryn H. Greenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
White Oak ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
Drought Severity Index

The climatic response of trees that occupy closed canopy forests in the eastern United States (US) is important to understanding the possible trajectory these forests may take in response to a warming climate. Our study examined tree rings of 664 trees from five oak species (white ( Quercus alba L.), black ( Quercus velutina Lam.), chestnut ( Quercus prinus L.), northern red ( Quercus rubra L.), scarlet ( Quercus coccinea Münchh.)) from 17 stands in eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and northern Georgia to determine their climatic response. We dated the samples using skeleton plots, measured the cores, and compared the site- and regional-level tree-ring chronologies of each separate species with divisional climate data. The oldest trees in each chronology dated back to 203 years for black oak, 299 years for chestnut oak, 171 years for northern red oak, 135 years for scarlet oak, and 291 years for white oak. We successfully developed climate models via multiple regression analyses with statistically significant (P < 0.05) variables representing the Palmer Drought Severity Index and average monthly temperature for most of the site-species chronologies (average R2 = 0.15). All regional climate response models included the Palmer Drought Severity Index from either June or July as the most significant variable in the climate response, suggesting that growing-season drought is the most important factor limiting oak growth in the southeastern US. An increase in temperature and reduction in moisture is likely to reduce their competitiveness in their current locations and force these species to migrate to cooler climates, thereby greatly changing ecosystem health and stability in the southern Appalachians.

scholarly journals Scattering ratio profiles retrieved from ALADIN/Aeolus and CALIOP/CALIPSO lidar observations: instantaneous overlaps, statistical comparison, and sensitivity to high clouds

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artem Feofilov ◽  
Helene Chepfer ◽  
Vincent Noel ◽  
Marjolaine Chiriaco
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Cloud Detection ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Vertical Grid ◽  
Scattering Ratio ◽  
Planetary Albedo ◽  
Atmospheric Backscatter

&lt;p&gt;Clouds and aerosols play an important role in the Earth&amp;#8217;s energy budget through a complex interaction with solar, atmospheric, and terrestrial radiation, and air humidity. Optically thick clouds efficiently reflect the incoming solar radiation and, globally, clouds are responsible for about two thirds of the planetary albedo. Thin cirrus trap the outgoing longwave radiation and keep the planet warm. Aerosols scatter or absorb sunlight depending on their size and shape and interact with clouds in various ways.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Due to the importance of clouds and aerosols for the Earth&amp;#8217;s energy budget, global satellite observations of their properties are essential for climate studies, for constraining climate models, and for evaluating cloud parameterizations. Active sounding from space by lidars and radars is advantageous since it provides the vertically resolved information. This has been proven by CALIOP lidar which has been observing the Earth&amp;#8217;s atmosphere since 2006. Another instrument of this kind, CATS lidar on-board ISS provided measurements for over 33 months starting from the beginning of 2015. The ALADIN lidar on-board ADM/Aeolus has been measuring horizontal winds and aerosols/clouds since August 2018. More lidars are planned &amp;#8211; in 2022, the ATLID/EarthCare lidar will be launched and other space-borne lidars are in the development phase.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this work, we compare the scattering ratio products retrieved from ALADIN and CALIOP observations. The former is aimed at 35 deg from nadir, it measures the atmospheric backscatter at 355nm from nadir, is capable of separating the molecular and particular components (HSRL), and provides the profiles with a vertical resolution of ~1km up to 20km altitude. &amp;#160;The latter, operating at 532nm is aimed at 3 deg from nadir and measures the total backscatter up to 40 km. Its natural vertical resolution is higher than that of ALADIN, but the scattering ratio product used in the comparison is provided at ~0.5km vertical grid.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We have performed a search of nearly simultaneous common volume observations of atmosphere by these two instruments for the period from 28/06/2019 through 31/12/2019 and analyzed the collocated data. We present the zonal averages of scattering ratios as well as the instantaneous profile comparisons and the statistical analysis of cloud detection, cloud height agreement, and temporal evolution of these characteristics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The preliminary conclusion, which can be drawn from this analysis, is that the general agreement of scattering ratio profiles retrieved from ALADIN and CALIOP observations is good up to 6-7 km height whereas in the higher atmospheric layers ALADIN is less sensitive to clouds than the CALIOP. This lack of sensitivity might be compensated by further averaging of the input signals and/or by an updating of the retrieval algorithms using the collocated observations dataset provided in the present work.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Energy budget constraints on climate response

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 415-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Otto ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
John Church ◽  
Gabi Hegerl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Budget ◽  
Budget Constraints ◽  
Climate Response

Implied ocean heat transport in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Pearce ◽  
Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo ◽  
Christopher Thomas ◽  
Thomas Allen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Energy Fluxes ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Energy Convergence

&lt;p&gt;The importance of heat transport in the ocean to maintain energy balance between different regions is well known, with heat typically being transported from the Equator to high latitudes. Ocean heat transport (OHT) can be separated into two different components; a divergent component which contributes directly to the Earths&amp;#8217; energy budget as it is the energy that converges in an ocean basin to balance the release of heat into the atmosphere, and a rotational component which does not affect the energy budget. Climate models show significant uncertainty in projections of ocean heat uptake, both in terms of the magnitude and geographical pattern. Since the oceans&amp;#8217; response under climate changes depends on the patterns of surface energy fluxes, it is important to assess the simulation of surface fluxes as a potential constraint of transient and long-term responses of the Earths&amp;#8217; climate. Assuming that the ocean absorbs all of the excess energy within the Earth system, it is possible to directly relate the net surface flux (NSF) over the ocean to divergent OHT, potentially providing a metric to quantify how well climate models are able to reproduce observed patterns of NSF and OHT. In this work, we present a detailed comparison of different methods used to calculate divergent OHT from the NSF over the ocean using data from various CMIP6 models. The methods investigated include a least-squares solution to a matrix equation in which energy convergence is related to NSF via the Earths&amp;#8217; energy imbalance, and solving a Poisson equation over the ocean surface (see Forget and Ferreira 2020). Comparison to observational estimates of OHT requires that the observational data set includes only sources of divergent heat transport, which is often not the case. Therefore, we intend to produce a data set of radiative energy fluxes that are consistent with both energy and water constraints (see Rodell et al. 2015, L&amp;#8217;Ecuyer et al. 2015, Thomas et al. 2020) which can be subject to the same methods of determining OHT, and see how these estimates compare to the results from climate models.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (23) ◽  
pp. 9641-9657 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. B. Richardson ◽  
P. M. Forster ◽  
T. Andrews ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
G. Faluvegi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Hydrological Sensitivity ◽  
Limited Moisture ◽  
Precipitation Changes

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

scholarly journals FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2273-2297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Piers M. Forster ◽  
Myles Allen ◽  
Nicholas Leach ◽  
Richard J. Millar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Future Projections

Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and other agents. Model runs are constrained to observed temperature change from 1880 to 2016 and produce a range of future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The constrained estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) are 2.86 (2.01 to 4.22) K, 1.53 (1.05 to 2.41) K and 1.40 (0.96 to 2.23) K (1000 GtC)−1 (median and 5–95 % credible intervals). These are in good agreement with the likely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) range, noting that AR5 estimates were derived from a combination of climate models, observations and expert judgement. The ranges of future projections of temperature and ranges of estimates of ECS, TCR and TCRE are somewhat sensitive to the prior distributions of ECS∕TCR parameters but less sensitive to the ERF from a doubling of CO2 or the observational temperature dataset used to constrain the ensemble. Taking these sensitivities into account, there is no evidence to suggest that the median and credible range of observationally constrained TCR or ECS differ from climate model-derived estimates. The range of temperature projections under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100 in the constrained FAIR model ensemble is lower than the emissions-based estimate reported in AR5 by half a degree, owing to differences in forcing assumptions and ECS∕TCR distributions.

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