scholarly journals Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvin Christopher Galang Varquez ◽  
Shota Kiyomoto ◽  
Do Ngoc Khanh ◽  
Manabu Kanda
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Heat Emission ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux

AbstractNumerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScanTM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.

scholarly journals Impact of Urban Canopy Parameters on a Megacity’s Modelled Thermal Environment

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1349
Author(s):  
Mikhail Varentsov ◽  
Timofey Samsonov ◽  
Matthias Demuzere
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux ◽  
Local Climate Zones

Urban canopy parameters (UCPs) are essential in order to accurately model the complex interplay between urban areas and their environment. This study compares three different approaches to define the UCPs for Moscow (Russia), using the COSMO numerical weather prediction and climate model coupled to TERRA_URB urban parameterization. In addition to the default urban description based on the global datasets and hard-coded constants (1), we present a protocol to define the required UCPs based on Local Climate Zones (LCZs) (2) and further compare it with a reference UCP dataset, assembled from OpenStreetMap data, recent global land cover data and other satellite imagery (3). The test simulations are conducted for contrasting summer and winter conditions and are evaluated against a dense network of in-situ observations. For the summer period, advanced approaches (2) and (3) show almost similar performance and provide noticeable improvements with respect to default urban description (1). Additional improvements are obtained when using spatially varying urban thermal parameters instead of the hard-coded constants. The LCZ-based approach worsens model performance for winter however, due to the underestimation of the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF). These results confirm the potential of LCZs in providing internationally consistent urban data for weather and climate modelling applications, as well as supplementing more comprehensive approaches. Yet our results also underline the continued need to improve the description of built-up and impervious areas and the AHF in urban parameterizations.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeria Garbero ◽  
Massimo Milelli ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Paola Mercogliano ◽  
Mikhail Varentsov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Morphological Characteristics ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Cosmo Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux ◽  
Urban Heat

The increase in built surfaces constitutes the main reason for the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI), that is a metropolitan area significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The urban heat islands and other urban-induced climate feedbacks may amplify heat stress and urban flooding under climate change and therefore to predict them correctly has become essential. Currently in the COSMO model, cities are represented by natural land surfaces with an increased surface roughness length and a reduced vegetation cover, but this approach is unable to correctly reproduce the UHI effect. By increasing the model resolution, a representation of the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology should be addressed, in order to better forecast temperature, moisture and precipitation in urban environments. Within the COSMO Consortium a bulk parameterization scheme (TERRA_URB or TU) has been developed. It parametrizes the effects of buildings, streets and other man-made impervious surfaces on energy, moist and momentum exchanges between the surface and atmosphere, and additionally accounts for the anthropogenic heat flux as a heat source from the surface to the atmosphere. TU implements an impervious water-storage parameterization, and the Semi-empirical Urban canopy parametrization (SURY) that translates 3D urban canopy into bulk parameters. This paper presents evaluation results of the TU scheme in high-resolution simulations with a recent COSMO model version for selected European cities, namely Turin, Naples and Moscow. The key conclusion of the work is that the TU scheme in the COSMO model reasonably reproduces UHI effect and improves air temperature forecasts for all the investigated urban areas, despite each city has very different morphological characteristics. Our results highlight potential benefits of a new turbulence scheme and the representation of skin-layer temperature (for vegetation) in the model performance. Our model framework provides perspectives for enhancing urban climate modelling, although further investigations in improving model parametrizations, calibration and the use of more realistic urban canopy parameters are needed.

scholarly journals A Partition Modeling for Anthropogenic Heat Flux Mapping in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Wang ◽  
Deyong Hu ◽  
Shanshan Chen ◽  
Chen Yu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Modeling Method ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Regional Characteristics ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux

Anthropogenic heat (AH) generated by human activities has a major impact on urban and regional climate. Accurately estimating anthropogenic heat is of great significance for studies on urban thermal environment and climate change. In this study, a gridded anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) estimation scheme was constructed based on socio-economic data, energy-consumption data, and multi-source remote sensing data using a partition modeling method, which takes into account the regional characteristics of AH emission caused by the differences in regional development levels. The refined AHF mapping in China was realized with a high resolution of 500 m. The results show that the spatial distribution of AHF has obvious regional characteristics in China. Compared with the AHF in provinces, the AHF in Shanghai is the highest which reaches 12.56 W·m−2, followed by Tianjin, Beijing, and Jiangsu. The AHF values are 5.92 W·m−2, 3.35 W·m−2, and 3.10 W·m−2, respectively. As can be seen from the mapping results of refined AHF, the high-value AHF aggregation areas are mainly distributed in north China, east China, and south China. The high-value AHF in urban areas is concentrated in 50–200 W·m−2, and maximum AHF in Shenzhen urban center reaches 267 W·m−2. Further, compared with other high resolution AHF products, it can be found that the AHF results in this study have higher spatial heterogeneity, which can better characterize the emission characteristics of AHF in the region. The spatial pattern of the AHF estimation results correspond to the distribution of building density, population, and industry zone. The high-value AHF areas are mainly distributed in airports, railway stations, industry areas, and commercial centers. It can thus be seen that the AHF estimation models constructed by the partition modeling method can well realize the estimation of large-scale AHF and the results can effectively express the detailed spatial distribution of AHF in local areas. These results can provide technical ideas and data support for studies on surface energy balance and urban climate change.

scholarly journals On the Assessment of a Cooling Tower Scheme for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Modeling for Urban Areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1399-1415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miao Yu ◽  
Jorge González ◽  
Shiguang Miao ◽  
Prathap Ramamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Cooling Tower ◽  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux ◽  
Temperature Errors

AbstractA cooling tower scheme that quantifies the sensible and latent anthropogenic heat fluxes released from buildings was coupled to an operational forecasting system [Rapid Refresh Multiscale Analysis and Prediction of the Beijing Urban Meteorological Institute (RMAPS-Urban)] and was evaluated in the context of the megacity of Beijing, China, during summer months. The objective of this scheme is to correct for underestimations of surface latent heat fluxes in regional climate modeling and weather forecasts in urban areas. The performance for surface heat fluxes by the modified RMAPS-Urban is greatly improved when compared with a suite of observations in Beijing. The cooling tower scheme increases the anthropogenic latent heat partition by 90% of the total anthropogenic heat flux release. Averaged surface latent heat flux in urban areas increases to about 64.3 W m−2 with a peak of 150 W m−2 on dry summer days and 40.35 W m−2 with a peak of 150 W m−2 on wet summer days. The model performance of near-surface temperature and humidity is also improved. Average 2-m temperature errors are reduced by 1°C, and maximum and minimum temperature errors are improved by 2°–3°C; absolute humidity is increased by 5%.

scholarly journals The role of urban boundary layer investigated by high resolution models and ground based observations in Rome area: a step for understanding parameterizations potentialities

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 5297-5344
Author(s):  
E. Pichelli ◽  
R. Ferretti ◽  
M. Cacciani ◽  
A. M. Siani ◽  
V. Ciardini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Sonic Anemometer ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The urban forcing on thermo-dynamical conditions can largely influences local evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Urban heat storage can produce noteworthy mesoscale perturbations of the lower atmosphere. The new generations of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models (NWP) is nowadays largely applied also to urban areas. It is therefore critical to reproduce correctly the urban forcing which turns in variations of wind, temperature and water vapor content of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). WRF-ARW, a new model generation, has been used to reproduce the circulation in the urban area of Rome. A sensitivity study is performed using different PBL and surface schemes. The significant role of the surface forcing in the PBL evolution has been verified by comparing model results with observations coming from many instruments (LiDAR, SODAR, sonic anemometer and surface stations). The crucial role of a correct urban representation has been demonstrated by testing the impact of different urban canopy models (UCM) on the forecast. Only one of three meteorological events studied will be presented, chosen as statistically relevant for the area of interest. The WRF-ARW model shows a tendency to overestimate vertical transmission of horizontal momentum from upper levels to low atmosphere, that is partially corrected by local PBL scheme coupled with an advanced UCM. Depending on background meteorological scenario, WRF-ARW shows an opposite behavior in correctly representing canopy layer and upper levels when local and non local PBL are compared. Moreover a tendency of the model in largely underestimating vertical motions has been verified.

scholarly journals Revising the definition of anthropogenic heat flux from buildings: role of human activities and building storage heat flux

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiqing Liu ◽  
Zhiwen Luo ◽  
Sue Grimmond
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Heat Emission ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat Flux ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Buildings are a major source of anthropogenic heat emissions, impacting energy use and human health in cities. The difference between building energy consumption and building anthropogenic heat emission magnitudes and time lag and are poorly quantified. Energy consumption (QEC) is a widely used proxy for the anthropogenic heat flux from buildings (QF,B). Here we revisit the latter’s definition. If QF,B is the heat emission to the outdoor environment from human activities within buildings, we can derive it from the changes in energy balance fluxes between occupied and unoccupied buildings. Our derivation shows the difference between QEC and QF,B is attributable to a change in the storage heat flux induced by human activities (∆So-uo) (i.e., QF,B = QEC − ∆So-uo). Using building energy simulations (EnergyPlus) we calculate the energy balance fluxes for a simplified isolated building (obtaining QF,B, QEC, ∆So-uo) with different occupancy states. The non-negligible differences in diurnal patterns between QF,B and QEC caused by thermal storage (e.g. hourly QF,B to QEC ratios vary between −2.72 and 5.13 within a year in Beijing, China). Negative QF,B can occur as human activities can reduce heat emission from building but are associated with a large storage heat flux. Building operations (e.g., open windows, use of HVAC system) modify the QF,B by affecting not only QEC but also the ∆So-uo diurnal profile. Air temperature and solar radiation are critical meteorological factors explaining day-to-day variability of QF,B. Our new approach could be used to provide data for future parameterisations of both anthropogenic heat flux and storage heat fluxes from buildings. It is evident that storage heat fluxes in cities may also be impacted by occupant behaviour.

Slavery in Brazil: A Case Study of Diamantina, Minas Gerais

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Diamond Mining ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Special Case

The study of slave mortality and morbidity in Brazil has been very difficult because of the extreme paucity of sources. Techniques which have been useful in studying the lives of free men and women seldom are useful for analyzing their slaves. The use of parish records such as baptism and death registers is not possible because of the custom of listing only the slave's first name and the unimaginative choice of names which resulted in large numbers of Joãos, Josés, Manuels, Antônios, Antonias, Joanas, and, of course, Marias. Equally important, the types of plantation records available to students of U.S. slavery have seldom been found for Brazil.This essay is an examination of an isolated slave register, which, for a series of idiosyncratic reasons, provides information permitting a glimpse at mortality and morbidity in a distinct and carefully controlled slave population. Because the slaves involved were used in diamond mining under horrendous conditions it is probable that the conclusions reached in this essay represent a worst case scenario. Rather than typical, this is a special case where work and living conditions were probably worse than in plantation zones and certainly worse than in urban areas. It is this situation which makes the conclusions of this essay quite startling.

Reviewing operational and near operational progress in surface water flood forecasting for urban areas

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Speight ◽  
Michael Cranston ◽  
Laura Kelly ◽  
Christopher White
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Environment Protection ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Protection Agency

<p>Surface water flooding is caused by intense rainfall before it enters rivers or drainage systems. As the climate changes and urban populations grow, the number of people around the world at risk of surface water flooding increases. Although it may not be possible to prevent such flooding, reliable and timely flood forecasts can help improve preparedness and recovery. Unlike river and coastal flooding where flood forecasting methods are well established, surface water forecasting techniques that address the challenges around predicting the location, timing and impact of events are still in their infancy.</p><p>Over the past five years there has been a rapid development of convection permitting numerical weather prediction models and probabilistic forecasting. Combined with an increase in computational ability, this has meant that it is potentially feasible to develop operational surface water forecasting systems for urban areas. The ability to make flood risk management decisions based on such forecasts depends on an interdisciplinary understanding of their strengths and limitations.</p><p>In 2019, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) commissioned a systematic review of UK and international surface water forecasting capabilities to inform the development of forecasting capabilities for Scotland (Speight et al, 2019). As part of the review process a literature review of international examples of operational surface water forecasting tools was conducted alongside discussion with a number of industry experts and leading academics to incorporate emerging capabilities.</p><p>This PICO will summarise the three approaches to surface water forecasting identified as part of this review; empirical based rainfall scenarios, hydrological forecasts linked to pre-simulated impact scenarios, and, real time hydrodynamic simulation. International examples of each type of approach will be presented along with discussion of their ability to meet the varying needs of decision makers. It will conclude by identifying ‘grand interdisciplinary challenges’ that still need to be addressed to provide effective solutions for reliable and timely surface water forecasts. For example although the emergence of new meteorological and hydrological capabilities is promising there is a scientific limit to the predictability of convective rainfall. To overcome this challenge re-thinking of the established role of flood forecasting is needed alongside developing interdisciplinary solutions for communicating uncertainty, making the best use of all available data and increasing preparedness.</p><p> </p><p><em>Speight, L., Cranston, M., Kelly, L. and White, C.J. (2019) Towards improved surface water flood forecasts for Scotland: A review of UK and international operational and emerging capabilities for the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, pp 1-63, doi:10.17868/69416 Available online at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/69416/</em></p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document