Slavery in Brazil: A Case Study of Diamantina, Minas Gerais

1988 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Diamond Mining ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Special Case

The study of slave mortality and morbidity in Brazil has been very difficult because of the extreme paucity of sources. Techniques which have been useful in studying the lives of free men and women seldom are useful for analyzing their slaves. The use of parish records such as baptism and death registers is not possible because of the custom of listing only the slave's first name and the unimaginative choice of names which resulted in large numbers of Joãos, Josés, Manuels, Antônios, Antonias, Joanas, and, of course, Marias. Equally important, the types of plantation records available to students of U.S. slavery have seldom been found for Brazil.This essay is an examination of an isolated slave register, which, for a series of idiosyncratic reasons, provides information permitting a glimpse at mortality and morbidity in a distinct and carefully controlled slave population. Because the slaves involved were used in diamond mining under horrendous conditions it is probable that the conclusions reached in this essay represent a worst case scenario. Rather than typical, this is a special case where work and living conditions were probably worse than in plantation zones and certainly worse than in urban areas. It is this situation which makes the conclusions of this essay quite startling.

scholarly journals Deformations on the ship sections during fabrication: cause and remedies

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Eisawy Mohamed ◽  
Renardo-Florin Teodor
Keyword(s):  
Production Cost ◽  
Deformation Characteristics ◽  
The Finite Element Method ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Turning Operations ◽  
Influencing Parameters ◽  
Steel Cutting ◽  
Process Material

During fabrication process, material deformations are likely to occur due to various factors such as heat during steel cutting, welding induced deformations, lifting and turning of ship sections, temporary stiffening and other possible modifications of ship sections. Lifting induced deformations is one of the major causes of deformations that highly affect the production cost and quality. The aim of this thesis is to outline the main causes of deformations that occur in ship sections during fabrication and to analyse in detail the lifting and turning operations of one ship section using the Finite Element Method (FEM). A strength check using the FEM has been performed on the selected ship section to investigate the deformations and stresses in two different cases with three different loading conditions. First, the section has been analysed without temporary stiffening in three load scenarios: lifting before turning, worst-case scenario during turning and lifting after turning. Similarly, the second case study has been analysed but with the temporary stiffening added according to the lifting plan. Various influencing parameters that determine the lifting plan has been investigated such as the sling angle which directly affects the deformation characteristics. It is observed that the addition of temporary stiffening is essential to minimize the deformations and to maintain the stress levels below the yield point.

scholarly journals A statistical forecast of LOW mortality and morbidity due to COVID-19, in ARGENTINA and other Southern Hemisphere countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar A. Barbero
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Total Death ◽  
Using Data

AbstractA set of open source programs in Python is devised to fit a parametric integrated Gaussian equation to cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 in Southern Hemisphere countries. The programs were successfully tested using data from advanced outbreak trajectories (Italy and Spain). The procedure was applied to data reported by Argentina. The projected total death toll will be 182 (277-182) with a peak of deaths (6(+/-2)) the 14 of April. The outbreak begins the 9thof March and end completely the 20thof May. However, already on 1stof May, 2 s (95.45%) of the deaths have occurred. The death toll arises from a number of infected individuals between 36412 and 2275. Then, they were to use to process data from several Southern Hemisphere countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Cuba, Chile, Panama, Australia, Bolivia, Honduras, New Zealand, Paraguay, Guatemala, Venezuela, Uruguay, El Salvador, Jamaica, Haiti, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The trend is to show low number of total deaths compared with other disease outbreaks. A total projected number of deaths between 15148 and 9939 deaths for a total population of ca. 664 M inhabitants. The projected death toll is much lower (5-10 times) than those forecasted by the Imperial College Group (ICG) even considering the best scenario of total suppression of virus transmission. Using actual mortality rates it is possible to back calculate which number of infected individuals would produce such mortality. The calculated number of infected individuals (worst case scenario) is below 2.5 million. This is significantly lower than that calculated by ICG (> 45 millions). In most countries the outbreak will end in May or early June. The dynamics of the outbreaks seems to do not saturate the health services (hospital beds) but only Peru, Ecuador and Panama should have not enough ICU beds for grave COVID-19 patients.

scholarly journals Noise Impact Assessment of Thermal Plant Facilities on Receptor Environments

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (Issue 1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O.A Olu-Arotiowa ◽  
J.A Adeniran ◽  
R.O Yusuf ◽  
M.O Abdulraheem ◽  
A.S Aremu
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Noise Emission ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Kriging Interpolation Method

Noise pollution is considered as a serious environmental nuisance in the urban areas. This study has used the VDI code 2714 to investigate the impacts of the noise from all the power generation and ancilliary facilities in the proposed Independent Power Plant, Agbara, Ogun State receptor environment. Kriging interpolation method in SurferR 8.0 software to predict noise emission levels within the fence line of the proposed Independent Power Plant. Calculations of possible noise levels at some receptors locations around the plant were carried out using the VDI code 2714. Four operation scenarios were considered in this study. The scenarios considered include: Noise emission from power generation facilities only (Scenario 1); Noise from the use of Compressors and Transformers (Scenario 2); Noise emission from the operation of power generation and ancillary equipment (Scenario 3); and Noise emission from the use of Backup Generators (Scenario 4). The maximum noise from the four scenarios were 112.34, 114.58, 116.61 and 110.01 dB(A), respectively, which is above the 8-hour 90 dB(A) limit recommended by the Federal Ministry of Environment (FMEnv). The operation of the proposed power plant will not have significant impact on the receptor environments except for Karogbaji which receives less than 12 dB(A) for the worst-case scenario (Scenario 3). The modeling results show that the predicted noise levels generated by the proposed operation would generally be within the established noise criteria at all the receptor locations under all conditions.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF COASTAL PORTS: A CASE STUDY OF THE PORT OF ZEEBRUGGE (BELGIUM)

2018 ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Gerasimos A. Kolokythas ◽  
Bart De Maerschalck ◽  
Joris Vanlede ◽  
Kai Chu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Access Channel

The effect of sea level rise on the hydrodynamic flow in the Belgian coastal zone is investigated in the light of the nautical accessibility of the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium. To this end, numerical simulations are performed considering three different scenarios of sea level rise along with a reference scenario (current situation). Specifically, a moderate, a warm and a worst case scenario of sea level rise (SLR) equal to 60 cm, 90 cm and 200 cm by the year 2100, are considered. The main objective is to find out how the strong tidal currents, which are mainly directed transversely to the access channel and limit the access to the port to a certain tidal window, will be affected by the considered SLR scenarios.

Integrated pre-drill and real-time geomechanical modelling brings significant benefits to deepwater wildcat exploration drilling campaign – a case study

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 698
Author(s):  
M. Sadegh Asadi ◽  
Amitava Ghosh ◽  
Sanjeev Bordoloi ◽  
Michael Reese
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Wellbore Stability ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seismic Velocities ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
Exploratory Wells

This case study demonstrates the significance of integrated pre-drill geomechanical modelling and real-time monitoring for drilling wildcat exploratory wells in the deepwater settings of an offshore field in South-East Asia. The key challenges in the area include deeper water depths (1.6 km), lack of relevant offset well information and a complex geological setting. In this project, the primary input data for the pre-drill geomechanical model were low resolution 2D seismic velocities derived from an un-calibrated velocity model and petrophysical data from an offset well located in shallow waters, 100 km away from the deepwater prospect. During pre-drill planning, a contingency casing plan was put in place to consider the uncertainties in the model and cover the worst-case scenario of high pore pressure (PP). To reduce the uncertainty during drilling, the well was monitored in real-time and the pre-drill predictions improved whenever new information or data became available. The objective was to have good data coverage to assist in real-time geomechanical modelling for operational decision making. Real-time wellbore stability monitoring was carried out by utilising all available drilling and logging data as well as logging while drilling (LWD), pressure measurements and seismic while drilling (SWD) velocities. Wellsite interpretation on cuttings, cavings and formation gases were also integrated into the model predictions. Based on real-time monitoring, pre-drill predictions and model parameters were continuously updated for the next planned section at the end of each section target depth (TD). Interactive real-time monitoring with continuous pre-drill model updates before drilling the subsequent sections helped to not only deepen the intermediate hole sections, but also to drill efficiently with proper mud weight management and without any significant wellbore instability issues. This integrated workflow helped to successfully drill two exploratory wells, with the major benefit of eliminating the contingency 6ʹʹ slim-hole section.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Quarantine Station Performance: A Case Study of the Importation of Equine Infectious Anemia Virus-Infected Horses into California

1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim E. Carpenter ◽  
Michael D. McBride ◽  
David W. Hird
Keyword(s):  
Equine Infectious Anemia Virus ◽  
Computer Simulation Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Quarantine Station ◽  
Equine Infectious Anemia ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Anemia Virus ◽  
Importation Risk

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

Monitoring and Screening of Pipelines for Movement: A Fast and Cost-Effective Alternative for Pipeline Operators to Measure Drift in Pipelines

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Schorr ◽  
Klaas Kole ◽  
Ferdinand Foessing
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Specific Area ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Abstract For pipelines in the oil, gas, and mining industry, movement of pipelines is one of the main integrity hazards. This movement in most cases is caused by landslides instigated by heavy rain, earthquakes or volcanic activities. If the pipeline movement remains undetected at an early stage, it can lead to the need for costly repairs to prevent, remove, or repair potential or actual damage. Moreover, if the movements stay undetected for too long, these lines may fail and lead to catastrophic events. This paper will illustrate what a fast and cost-effective solution to avoid these threats at an early stage looks like and how it works. It will explain the process and demonstrate the full power of this technology on the basis of a case study. The standard solution for pipelines without a permanent position monitoring system at the time of installation includes the use of intelligent tools that are able to detect even the slightest changes in the trajectory. These inspection tools are quite expensive to run, especially when multiple screening runs are required throughout a year, e.g. before and after the rainy season or after a seismic event. Other monitoring solutions are either limited to only a specific area where the movement has already been detected at an earlier stage or lack the precision required to serve as an early warning system, such as LIDAR or satellite image comparison. Over the years, ROSEN has developed a technology that can bridge the gap between frequent measurements and cost-effective service. It is based on an electronic gyroscope that is commonly used in Inline Inspection tools but can also be installed in readily available cleaning tools. When first run in a pipeline, it records the whole pipeline trajectory, leaving no segment undocumented. The next step is to compare these recorded pipeline routing measurements with already existing trajectory baseline data, recorded earlier by any ILI tool with an optical gyro or similar. This comparison will reveal any deviation between both trajectories and precisely determine any pipeline movement. A case study will demonstrate how the comparison is achieved. When performing repetitive inspections, this screening comparison enables the operators to detect the onset of movements and monitor the progress of any known pipeline movement. It allows them to distinguish between stable areas from dynamic ground movements and keeps close track of changes in the pipe course. Through regular repetitions, any further development of the movement is tracked, and appropriate reactive measures can be scheduled in a timely manner. This new service provides a cost-effective and powerful early warning tool for geological pipeline integrity threats that can lead to loss of integrity, the asset, or — worst-case scenario — loss of life or environmental contamination, while at the same time, it reduces the necessity of pipeline intervention that will affect production.

Social Networks and Social Worlds

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-260
Author(s):  
Jared Ross Hardesty
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
American Revolution ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Lived Experiences ◽  
Port City ◽  
Social Worlds ◽  
Men And Women

Abstract This essay argues that the “slave community” paradigm obfuscates alternative lived experiences for enslaved men and women, especially those living in the urban areas of the early modern Atlantic world, and uses eighteenth-century Boston as a case study. A bustling Atlantic port city where slaves comprised between ten and fifteen percent of the population, Boston provides an important counterpoint. Slaves were a minority of residents, lived in households with few other people of African descent, worked with laborers from across the socio-economic spectrum, and had near constant interaction with their masters. Moreover, slavery in Boston reached its zenith before the American Revolution, meaning older, pre-revolutionary and early modern notions of social order—hierarchy, deference, and dependence—structured their society and everyday lives. These factors imbricated enslaved Bostonians in the broader society. Boston’s slaves inhabited multiple “social worlds” where they fostered a rich tapestry of relations and forms of resistance.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 404-414
Author(s):  
Satchit Balsari ◽  
Caleb Dresser ◽  
Jennifer Leaning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Human Migration ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Civil Strife ◽  
Changing Climate

Abstract Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

scholarly journals Mixed farming diversification may be costly: southern Queensland case study

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Zull ◽  
J. Owens ◽  
M. Bourgault ◽  
B. Johnson ◽  
G. Peck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Production Systems ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Order System ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Mixed Farming ◽  
The Right ◽  
Semi Arid

Many farmers in Australia and in other countries have a choice of crop or livestock production, and many choose a mixture of both, based on risk preference, personal interests, markets, land resources and local climate. Mixed farming can be a risk-spreading strategy, especially in highly variable climates, but the right scales of each enterprise within the mix may be critical to farm profitability. To investigate expected farm profits, the probability of breaking even, as well as the worst and best case scenarios, we used farm data and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the production of a typical, semi-arid, mixed-farm in southern Queensland. Three farming system scenarios were investigated: I, livestock and more intensive cropping; II, current production system of livestock and minimal cropping; and III, livestock only. We found that the expected profits were in the order system I > system III > system II. The key reason for the lower profits of system II was the high overhead cost of capital to continue some cropping, with low annual cropping income. Under the worst case scenario, in years with low rainfall, system I had the greatest downside risk with far greater financial losses. Systems I and III had similar probabilities of breaking even, and higher than system II, which incurs cropping overheads and limited cropping returns. Therefore, system II was less desirable than either system I or III. This case study helps farmers and advisors of semi-arid mixed farming enterprises to be better informed when making decisions at the paddock and whole-farm level, in both the short and long term, with respect to profit and risk. The method used in this paper can be applied to other mixed farms, in Australia and elsewhere.

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