scholarly journals Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Platts ◽  
Suzanna C. Mason ◽  
Georgina Palmer ◽  
Jane K. Hill ◽  
Tom H. Oliver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Habitat Availability ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Extrinsic Factors ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat availability and exposure to climate change at the range margins explain up to half of the variation in rates of range shift. Habitat generalists expanded faster than more specialised species, but this intrinsic trait explains less of the variation in range shifts than habitat availability, which additionally depends on extrinsic factors that may be rare or widespread at the range margin. Similarly, while climate change likely underlies polewards expansions, we find that more of the between-species variation is explained by differences in habitat availability than by changes in climatic suitability. A model that includes both habitat and climate, and their statistical interaction, explains the most variation in range shifts. We conclude that climate-change vulnerability assessments should focus as much on future habitat availability as on climate sensitivity and exposure, with the expectation that habitat restoration and protection will substantially improve species’ abilities to respond to uncertain future climates.

Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change1This article is part of a Special Issue entitled “Pollination biology research in Canada: Perspectives on a mutualism at different scales”.

Botany ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 90 (7) ◽  
pp. 587-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicity E. Bedford ◽  
Robert J. Whittaker ◽  
Jeremy T. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Species Assemblage ◽  
Mobile Species ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Winter Temperatures

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change.

scholarly journals Empirical evidence for different cognitive effects in explaining the attribution of marine range shifts to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1306-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid E. van Putten ◽  
Stewart Frusher ◽  
Elizabeth A. Fulton ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Sarah M. Jennings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Mental Representations ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Cognitive Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Marine Resource ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Marine Climate

Abstract The changing geographical distribution of species, or range shift, is one of the better documented fingerprints of climate change in the marine environment. Range shifts may also lead to dramatic changes in the distribution of economic, social, and cultural opportunities. These challenge marine resource users' capacity to adapt to a changing climate and managers' ability to implement adaptation plans. In particular, a reluctance to attribute marine range shift to climate change can undermine the effectiveness of climate change communications and pose a potential barrier to successful adaptation. Attribution is a known powerful predictor of behavioural intention. Understanding the cognitive processes that underpin the formation of marine resource users' beliefs about the cause of observed marine range shift phenomena is therefore an important topic for research. An examination of the attribution by marine resource users of three types of range shifts experienced in a marine climate change hotspot in southeast Australia to various climate and non-climate drivers indicates the existence of at least three contributing cognitions. These are: (i) engrained mental representations of environmental phenomena, (ii) scientific complexity in the attribution pathway, and (iii) dissonance from the positive or negative nature of the impact. All three play a part in explaining the complex pattern of attribution of marine climate change range shifts, and should be considered when planning for engagement with stakeholders and managers around adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals Simulating the effects of local adaptation and life history on the ability of plants to track climate shifts

AoB Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily V Moran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many studies have examined the impact of dispersal on local adaptation, but much less attention has been paid to how local adaptation influences range shifts. The aim of this study was to test how local adaptation might affect climate-driven range shifts in plants, and if this might differ between plants with different life histories. Simulated range shift dynamics were compared for hypothetical annual, perennial and tree species, each comprised of either one plastic genotype or six locally adapted genotypes. The landscape consists of shifting climate bands made up of 20 × 20 m patches containing multiple individuals. Effects of seed dispersal, breadth of the plastic species’ tolerance, steepness of the climate gradient and rate of the climate shift are also examined. Local adaptation increased the equilibrium range size and aided range shifts by boosting fitness near range edges. However, when the rate of climate change was doubled on a steep gradient, locally adapted trees exhibited a higher percent loss of range during the climate shift. The plastic annual species with short dispersal was unable to recover its range size even after the climate stabilized, while the locally adapted annuals tracked climate change well. The results suggest that in most situations local adaptation and longer dispersal distances will be advantageous, though not necessarily sufficient, for tracking suitable climates. However, local adaptation might put species with long generation times at greater risk when climate shifts are very rapid. If confirmed by empirical tests, these results suggest that identifying variation between species in how fitness varies along climate gradients and in these key demographic rates might aid in prioritizing management actions.

scholarly journals Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1549) ◽  
pp. 2019-2024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gian-Reto Walther
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Recent Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.

scholarly journals Integrating climate change and human impacts into marine spatial planning: A case study of threatened starfish species in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nayla Shibayama Patrizzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures

Network expansion of marine protected areas in a changing world is a difficult task for conservation planners. Brazil experiences a combination of low and uneven protection of marine environmets, increasing anthropogenic pressures, climate change, and gaps in information regarding the geographical distribution of many species (Wallacean shortfall). Here, we addressed these issues and present a strategy for identifying priority marine areas for conservation in Brazil that would contribute to increasing species representation and achievement of conservation targets. Within this strategy, we accounted for (i) species range shifts due to climate change and their influence on species distribution, (ii) the lack of species geographical distribution data, and (iii) anthropic pressures on oceans. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 12 threatened starfish species in both present and future (2100) times using Maxent. We also quantified and mapped species range shifts. Second, we developed three conservation spatial solutions and compared the 10% top-ranked areas. The results showed that ENMs had a good performance in representing the distribution of species, even those that had few occurrence records. Our models forecasted a significant range expansion for the majority of species (10 out 12) by 2100. We found that the priority sites covering the top-ranked 10% in the study area identified in ours conservation spatial solutions would protect between 10.41% and 15.88%, on average, of suitable areas for the starfish species. Our results indicated priority sites for conservation less affected by anthropic pressures (~2%) when data on human impacts on oceans were incorporated into the spatial prioritization process. We identified a network of priority marine sites for conservation that minimized human influence and considered the effects of climate change on species distribution. We used threatened starfish species as a case study for illustrating our approach; however, such an approach could be applied to any taxonomic group, which supports the development of more effective conservation actions that represent biodiversity under such threats.

scholarly journals How Competition and Wildfire Affect Tree Range Shifts in the American West

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avery Hill ◽  
Christopher Field
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
American West ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Inventory Analysis ◽  
Plant Populations ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Contemporary Climate

Abstract Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century’s vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plants redistribute in response to a changing climate. Although plant redistribution in response to contemporary climate change is widely observed, our understanding of its mechanics is nascent. In this study we test the response of plant range shift rates to wildfire occurrence using 33,838 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across five states in the western United States. Wildfire increased the rate of observed range shifts for 6/8 tree species by more than 22% on average, suggesting that incumbent vegetation can act as a barrier to plant range shifts and that fire management may play an important role in facilitating transitions between vegetation types in response to climate change.

scholarly journals Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1799) ◽  
pp. 20141857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin C. Rowe ◽  
Karen M. C. Rowe ◽  
Morgan W. Tingley ◽  
Michelle S. Koo ◽  
James L. Patton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Small Mammals ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Specific Change ◽  
Lower Limits

Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

scholarly journals Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (23) ◽  
pp. 12897-12903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clark S. Rushing ◽  
J. Andrew Royle ◽  
David J. Ziolkowski ◽  
Keith L. Pardieck
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Neotropical Migrants ◽  
Migratory Species ◽  
Nonbreeding Season ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Trailing Edges ◽  
Leading Edges

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

scholarly journals Improving range shift predictions: enhancing the power of traits

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony F. Cannistra ◽  
Lauren B. Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Response To Environmental Change

AbstractAccurately predicting species’ range shifts in response to environmental change is a central ecological objective and applied imperative. In synthetic analyses, traits emerge as significant but weak predictors of species’ range shifts across recent climate change. These studies assume linearity in the relationship between a trait and its function, while detailed empirical work often reveals unimodal relationships, thresholds, and other nonlinearities in many trait-function relationships. We hypothesize that the use of linear modeling approaches fails to capture these nonlinearities and therefore may be under-powering traits to predict range shifts. We evaluate the predictive performance of four different machine learning approaches that can capture nonlinear relationships (ridge-regularized linear regression, ridge-regularized kernel regression, support vector regression, and random forests). We validate our models using four multi-decadal range shift datasets in montane plants, montane small mammals, and marine fish. We show that nonlinear approaches perform substantially better than least-squares linear modeling in reproducing historical range shifts. In addition, using novel model observation and interrogation techniques, the trait classes (e.g. dispersal-or diet-related traits) that we identify as primary drivers of model predictions are consistent with expectations. However, disagreements among models in the directionality of trait predictors suggests limits to trait-based statistical predictive frameworks.

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