scholarly journals Simulating the effects of local adaptation and life history on the ability of plants to track climate shifts

AoB Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily V Moran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Climate Shifts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many studies have examined the impact of dispersal on local adaptation, but much less attention has been paid to how local adaptation influences range shifts. The aim of this study was to test how local adaptation might affect climate-driven range shifts in plants, and if this might differ between plants with different life histories. Simulated range shift dynamics were compared for hypothetical annual, perennial and tree species, each comprised of either one plastic genotype or six locally adapted genotypes. The landscape consists of shifting climate bands made up of 20 × 20 m patches containing multiple individuals. Effects of seed dispersal, breadth of the plastic species’ tolerance, steepness of the climate gradient and rate of the climate shift are also examined. Local adaptation increased the equilibrium range size and aided range shifts by boosting fitness near range edges. However, when the rate of climate change was doubled on a steep gradient, locally adapted trees exhibited a higher percent loss of range during the climate shift. The plastic annual species with short dispersal was unable to recover its range size even after the climate stabilized, while the locally adapted annuals tracked climate change well. The results suggest that in most situations local adaptation and longer dispersal distances will be advantageous, though not necessarily sufficient, for tracking suitable climates. However, local adaptation might put species with long generation times at greater risk when climate shifts are very rapid. If confirmed by empirical tests, these results suggest that identifying variation between species in how fitness varies along climate gradients and in these key demographic rates might aid in prioritizing management actions.

scholarly journals Empirical evidence for different cognitive effects in explaining the attribution of marine range shifts to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1306-1318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid E. van Putten ◽  
Stewart Frusher ◽  
Elizabeth A. Fulton ◽  
Alistair J. Hobday ◽  
Sarah M. Jennings ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Mental Representations ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Cognitive Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Marine Resource ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Marine Climate

Abstract The changing geographical distribution of species, or range shift, is one of the better documented fingerprints of climate change in the marine environment. Range shifts may also lead to dramatic changes in the distribution of economic, social, and cultural opportunities. These challenge marine resource users' capacity to adapt to a changing climate and managers' ability to implement adaptation plans. In particular, a reluctance to attribute marine range shift to climate change can undermine the effectiveness of climate change communications and pose a potential barrier to successful adaptation. Attribution is a known powerful predictor of behavioural intention. Understanding the cognitive processes that underpin the formation of marine resource users' beliefs about the cause of observed marine range shift phenomena is therefore an important topic for research. An examination of the attribution by marine resource users of three types of range shifts experienced in a marine climate change hotspot in southeast Australia to various climate and non-climate drivers indicates the existence of at least three contributing cognitions. These are: (i) engrained mental representations of environmental phenomena, (ii) scientific complexity in the attribution pathway, and (iii) dissonance from the positive or negative nature of the impact. All three play a part in explaining the complex pattern of attribution of marine climate change range shifts, and should be considered when planning for engagement with stakeholders and managers around adaptation to climate change.

Life histories, ecological tolerance limits, and the evolution of geographic range size in Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae)

2005 ◽  
Vol 53 (6) ◽  
pp. 501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Mathews ◽  
Stephen P. Bonser
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Drought Tolerance ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Tolerance Limits ◽  
Physiological Tolerance ◽  
Australian Continent ◽  
The Impact

Current theories explaining variability in species geographic range sizes in plants tend to focus on how traits associated with either physiological tolerance limits or life histories are related to range size. In trees, aspects of both physiological tolerance (e.g. drought tolerance) and life history (e.g. life span and growth rate) are related to stem traits such as wood density and height relative to diameter. We examined how the evolution of stem traits is related to geographic range sizes in Eucalyptus at two spatial scales: across the Australian continent and within the wet forests near the east coast of Australia. Geographic range sizes were estimated from herbarium records. Stem trait data were collected from both natural populations and published sources. We used phylogenetically independent contrasts to test for evolutionary associations between stem traits and geographic range sizes. Across Australia, the evolution of stem traits conferring drought tolerance were not consistently associated greater range sizes. This was surprising since arid and semi-arid environments are geographically expansive. Within the eastern forests, the evolution of stem traits defining slow growing, competitively dominant life histories were associated with greater range sizes. These stem traits should confer both a capacity to disperse into previously unoccupied habitats and the ability to persist in habitats already occupied. Traits associated with physiological tolerance and life history had significant effects on the evolution of range sizes in Eucalyptus. However, we demonstrate that the impact of these traits on range size evolution depends on both environmental conditions and the scale at which these traits are examined.

Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change1This article is part of a Special Issue entitled “Pollination biology research in Canada: Perspectives on a mutualism at different scales”.

Botany ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 90 (7) ◽  
pp. 587-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicity E. Bedford ◽  
Robert J. Whittaker ◽  
Jeremy T. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
Large Species ◽  
Species Assemblage ◽  
Mobile Species ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Winter Temperatures

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change.

scholarly journals Accounting for uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity hotspots in Spain

2019 ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Romero ◽  
J. Olivero ◽  
R. Real
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspots ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vertebrate Species ◽  
Taxonomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Our limited understanding of the complexity of nature generates uncertainty in mathematical and cartographical models used to predict the effects of climate change on species’ distributions. We developed predictive models of distributional range shifts of threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, and in their accumulation in biodiversity hotspots due to climate change. We considered two relevant sources of climatological uncertainty that affect predictions of future climate: general circulation models and socio–economic scenarios. We also examined the relative importance of climate as a driver of species’ distribution and taxonomic uncertainty as additional biogeographical causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty was detected in all the forecasts derived from models in which climate was a significant explanatory factor, and in the species with taxonomic uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasts was mainly located in areas not occupied by the species, and increased with time difference from the present. Mapping this uncertainty allowed us to assess the consistency of predictions regarding future changes in the distribution of hotspots of threatened vertebrates in Spain.

scholarly journals Short-Lived Species Move Uphill Faster Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joséphine Couet ◽  
Emma-Liina Marjakangas ◽  
Andrea Santangeli ◽  
John Atle Kålås ◽  
Åke Lindström ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Altitudinal Range ◽  
Species Abundances

Abstract Climate change is pushing species ranges towards poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is very limited. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts is particularly important as mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts have occurred among birds in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years and assess whether such shifts are related to species’ traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shifts in the mean altitudes of the bird species’ abundances across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 77 species, 54 shifted their ranges uphill. In general, the range shift was faster when the altitudinal range within the area was wider. Importantly, the altitudinal shift was strongly related to species’ longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced altitudinal uphill shifts than long-lived species. Our results show that the altitudinal range shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. This highlights the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life-histories, as they appear unable to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

scholarly journals The Tree Height Growth of Most Southern Scot Pine Populations Are Locally Adapted to Drought

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 555
Author(s):  
Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar ◽  
Noelia González-Muñoz ◽  
Santiago C. González-Martínez ◽  
Ricardo Alía ◽  
Marta Benito Garzón
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Height Growth ◽  
Species Ranges ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Tree Height Growth ◽  
The Impact

Most populations of Scots pine in Spain are locally adapted to drought, with only a few populations at the southernmost part of the distribution range showing maladaptations to the current climate. Increasing tree heights are predicted for most of the studied populations by the year 2070, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These results are probably linked to the capacity of this species to acclimatize to new climates. The impact of climate change on tree growth depends on many processes, including the capacity of individuals to respond to changes in the environment. Pines are often locally adapted to their environments, leading to differences among populations. Generally, populations at the margins of the species’ ranges show lower performances in fitness-related traits than core populations. Therefore, under expected changes in climate, populations at the southern part of the species’ ranges could be at a higher risk of maladaptation. Here, we hypothesize that southern Scots pine populations are locally adapted to current climate, and that expected changes in climate may lead to a decrease in tree performance. We used Scots pine tree height growth data from 15-year-old individuals, measured in six common gardens in Spain, where plants from 16 Spanish provenances had been planted. We analyzed tree height growth, accounting for the climate of the planting sites, and the climate of the original population to assess local adaptation, using linear mixed-effect models. We found that: (1) drought drove differences among populations in tree height growth; (2) most populations were locally adapted to drought; (3) tree height was predicted to increase for most of the studied populations by the year 2070 (a concentration of RCP 8.5). Most populations of Scots pine in Spain were locally adapted to drought. This result suggests that marginal populations, despite inhabiting limiting environments, can be adapted to the local current conditions. In addition, the local adaptation and acclimation capacity of populations can help margin populations to keep pace with climate change. Our results highlight the importance of analyzing, case-by-case, populations’ capacities to cope with climate change.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 1288-1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette A. Loiselle ◽  
Catherine H. Graham ◽  
Jaqueline M. Goerck ◽  
Milton Cezar Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Environmental Niche ◽  
The Impact

Local adaptation of trees at the range margins impacts range shifts in the face of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 1507-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin A. Solarik ◽  
Christian Messier ◽  
Rock Ouimet ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Dominique Gravel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
The Face

scholarly journals Local Adaptation and Response of Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco Populations to Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian-Ge Hu ◽  
Jian-Feng Mao ◽  
Yousry A. El-Kassaby ◽  
Kai-Hua Jia ◽  
Si-Qian Jiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Tree Height ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Platycladus Orientalis ◽  
Non Local ◽  
The Impact

Knowledge about the local adaptation and response of forest tree populations to the climate is important for assessing the impact of climate change and developing adaptive genetic resource management strategies. However, such information is not available for most plant species. Here, based on 69 provenances tested at 19 common garden experimental sites, we developed a universal response function (URF) for tree height at seven years of age for the important and wide-spread native Chinese tree species Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco. URF was recently used to predict the potential growth response of a population originating from any climate and growing in any climate conditions. The developed model integrated both genetic and environmental effects, and explained 55% of the total variation in tree height observed among provenances and test sites in China. We found that local provenances performed better than non-local counterparts in habitats located in central, eastern, and southwestern China, showing the evidence of local adaptation as compared to other regions. In contrast, non-local provenances outperformed local ones in peripheral areas in northern and northwestern China, suggesting an adaptational lag in these areas. Future projections suggest that the suitable habitat areas of P. orientalis would expand by 15%–39% and shift northward by 0.8–3 degrees in latitude; however, the projected tree height of this species would decline by 4%–8% if local provenances were used. If optimal provenances were used, tree height growth could be improved by 13%–15%, along with 59%–71% suitable habitat expansion. Thus, assisted migration with properly selected seed sources would be effective in avoiding maladaptation in new plantations under a changing climate for P. orientalis.

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