scholarly journals Exploring the use of web searches for risk communication during COVID-19 in Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaja Kristensen ◽  
Eva Lorenz ◽  
Jürgen May ◽  
Ricardo Strauss
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Public Health Authority ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Web Searches ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Protective Mask

AbstractRisk communication during pandemics is an element of utmost importance. Understanding the level of public attention—a prerequisite for effective communication—implicates expensive and time-consuming surveys. We hypothesise that the relative search volume from Google Trends could be used as an indicator of public attention of a disease and its prevention measures. The search terms ‘RKI’ (Robert Koch Institute, national public health authority in Germany), ‘corona’ and ‘protective mask’ in German language were shortlisted. Cross-correlations between these terms and the reported cases from 15 February to 27 April were conducted for each German federal state. The findings were contrasted against a timeline of official communications concerning COVID-19. The highest correlations of the term ‘RKI’ with reported COVID-19 cases were found between lags of − 2 and − 12 days, meaning web searches were already performed from 2 to 12 days before case numbers increased. A similar pattern was seen for the term ‘corona’. Cross-correlations indicated that most searches on ‘protective mask’ were performed from 6 to 12 days after the peak of cases. The results for the term ‘protective mask’ indicate a degree of confusion in the population. This is supported by conflicting recommendations to wear face masks during the first wave. The relative search volumes could be a useful tool to provide timely and location-specific information on public attention for risk communication.

scholarly journals How informative are web searches for risk communication during COVID-19 in Germany?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaja Kristensen ◽  
Eva Lorenz ◽  
Jürgen May ◽  
Ricardo Strauss
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Public Health Authority ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Web Searches ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Protective Mask

Abstract Background: Risk communication during pandemics is an element of paramount importance. Understanding the level of public concern implicates expensive and time-consuming surveys. We hypothesize that the relative search volume from Google Trends could be used as an indicator of public concern towards prevention measures as well as of the adequacy of the official messages spread. Methods: The search terms ‘RKI’, ‘corona’ and ‘protective mask’ in German language were shortlisted. Cross-correlations between these terms and the reported cases from February 15th to April 27th were conducted for each German federal state. The findings were contrasted against a timeline of official communications concerning COVID-19.Results: The highest correlations of the term ‘RKI’ (Robert Koch Institute, national public health authority in Germany) with reported COVID-19 cases were found between lags of -2 and -12 days, meaning web searches were already performed two to twelve days before case numbers increased. A similar pattern was seen for the term ‘corona’. Cross-correlations indicated that most searches on ‘protective mask’ were performed six to twelve days after the increase of cases. Conclusions: The results for the term ‘protective mask’ indicate some degree of confusion in the population, which is supported by the contradictory recommendations on the wearing of face masks over time. In addition, the relative search volumes could be a useful tool to provide timely information on location-based risk communication strategies.

The invisible hole of information on SMB's cybersecurity

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-26
Author(s):  
Ruti Gafni ◽  
Tal Pavel
Keyword(s):  
Mass Communication ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Communication Media ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Cyber Threats ◽  
Accessible Information ◽  
Types Of Information

Small and Medium Businesses (SMB) use Internet and computer-based tools in their daily processes, sometimes without being aware to the cyber threats, or without knowing how to be prepared in case of a cyber-attack, although they are a major target for cyber-attacks. Specific information about cybersecurity needed by SMBs, in order to cope with cyber threats, is not always available or easily accessible. In this study, a vast search of different types of information about SMBs’ cybersecurity was performed, in order to find whether a hole of accessible information exists in this area. This exploratory research covered general mass communication media channels, technological and professional cybersecurity websites, and academic journals, and found that indeed very few studies, articles and news items were published in this matter. Leveraging knowledge and awareness, diminishing the shame for reporting cyber-attacks, and increasing mass communication media interest and public attention, may be activities to cover this “invisible hole”.

scholarly journals Google search volume trends for cancer screening terms during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 096914132199942
Author(s):  
Austin Snyder ◽  
Sean Jang ◽  
Ilana S Nazari ◽  
Avik Som ◽  
Efren J Flores ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Pap Smear ◽  
Marked Decrease ◽  
Lung Cancer Screening ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Cancer Screening Tests ◽  
Google Search

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to delays in cancer diagnosis, in part due to postponement of cancer screening. We used Google Trends data to assess public attention to cancer screening during the first peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Search volume for terms related to established cancer screening tests (“colonoscopy,” “mammogram,” “lung cancer screening,” and “pap smear”) showed a marked decrease of up to 76% compared to the pre-pandemic period, a significantly greater drop than for search volume for terms denoting common chronic diseases. Maintaining awareness of cancer screening during future public health crises may decrease delays in cancer diagnosis.

scholarly journals Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahamoddin Khailaie ◽  
Tanmay Mitra ◽  
Arnab Bandyopadhyay ◽  
Marta Schips ◽  
Pietro Mascheroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Federal States

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. Methods We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. Results The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2–3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. Conclusions The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

scholarly journals Taking the heterogeneity of citizens into account: flood risk communication in coastal cities – a case study of Bremen

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1931-1940 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Martens ◽  
H. Garrelts ◽  
H. Grunenberg ◽  
H. Lange
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Media Analysis ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Meso Level ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Protective Actions ◽  
Distribution Of Resources

Abstract. The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens.

Software for Statistical Meta-analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher H. Schmid ◽  
Gavin B. Stewart ◽  
Hannah R. Rothstein ◽  
Marc J. Lajeunesse ◽  
Jessica Gurevitch
Keyword(s):  
Half Life ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Research Synthesis ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
User Needs ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Graphical Display ◽  
Web Searches ◽  
General Purpose Software ◽  
Over Time

To conduct a meta-analysis, a researcher will need software to perform all but the simplest calculations. Three types of software can be used, depending on user needs: a spreadsheet, a general purpose statistical package, and a program developed expressly to carry out meta-analysis. This chapter first reviews the stand-alone programs, then discusses the general purpose software, and finally briefly reviews two programs that can extract the data underlying a graphical display. Readers need to keep in mind that software features, cost, and availability all change fairly rapidly over time; while some of the specific information provided may soon be out of date, the general issues and principles discussed in choosing software for meta-analysis will have a longer half-life. Web searches, the Methods sections of recent research syntheses, and professional meetings where research synthesis results and methods are presented, are good resources for keeping up with both software availability and developments in methodology.

scholarly journals Analysis of the early Covid-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Küchenhoff ◽  
Felix Günther ◽  
Michael Höhle ◽  
Andreas Bender
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Projection Techniques ◽  
Reporting Delay

AbstractWe analyze the Covid-19 epidemic curve from March to end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time series are analyzed by a Poisson trend regression model with change points. The change points are estimated directly from the data without further assumptions. We carry out the analysis for the whole of Germany and the federal state of Bavaria, where we have more detailed data. Both analyses show a major change between March 9th and 13th for the time series of infections: from a strong increase to a stagnation or a slight decrease. Another change was found between March 24th and March 31st, where the decline intensified. These two major changes can be related to different governmental measures. On March, 11th, Chancellor Merkel appealed for social distancing in a press conference with the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and a ban on major events with more than 1000 visitors (March 10th) was issued. The other change point at the end of March could be related to the shutdown in Germany.Our results differ from those by other authors as we take into account the reporting delay, which turned out to be time dependent and therefore changes the structure of the epidemic curve compared to the curve of newly reported cases.

scholarly journals Fighting National Amnesia: Profiling Public Attention to Mass Shootings in The United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles Chandler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
Decay Length ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Mass Shootings ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Mass Shooting

This study aims to identify factors that shape public perception and emotional response to mass shootings in the United States. I suggest that patterns of media coverage inform public consciousness and collective emotion. Newsworthiness and gatekeeping theories assert that school or prejudicial shootings and those with more victims are reported on at higher rates. Literature on racial and immigrant bias in media demonstrates that non-white shooters also generate more discourse. The directed construction of shootings and the affective public responses they generate align well with the concept of a “moral panic.” Using all valid cases from the Mother Jones Mass Shootings:1982-2019 dataset which align temporally with Google Trends data, I analyze the volume and decay rate of search topics “mass shooting,” “gun control,” and “open carry,” following US mass shootings from 2004-2019. Shootings with more victims predict a higher volume of searches for “mass shooting,” and shorter search periods for “gun control” and “open carry.” Shootings with educational and religious targets had no significant effects on search patterns. Workplace shootings result in longer search periods for “mass shooting,” and shorter periods for “gun control.” Non-white shooters generate shorter search decay for “open carry.” The results support theories of media gatekeeping, suggesting events with more casualties generate more intense public attention. The consistent negative correlation between search volume and decay length suggests that sensational responses to shootings are not sustainable over long periods of time and prohibit pragmatically addressing mass shootings.

scholarly journals Risk Communication in Asian Countries: COVID-19 Discourse on Twitter (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungkyu Park ◽  
Sungwon Han ◽  
Jeongwook Kim ◽  
Mir Majid Molaie ◽  
Hoang Dieu Vu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Natural Language Processing ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus disease (hereafter COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic. During this time, a plethora of information regarding COVID-19 containing both false information (misinformation) and accurate information circulated on social media. The World Health Organization has declared a need to fight not only the pandemic but also the infodemic (a portmanteau of information and pandemic). In this context, it is critical to analyze the quality and veracity of information shared on social media and the evolution of discussions on major topics regarding COVID-19. OBJECTIVE This research characterizes risk communication patterns by analyzing public discourse on the novel coronavirus in four Asian countries that suffered outbreaks of varying degrees of severity: South Korea, Iran, Vietnam, and India. METHODS We collect tweets on COVID-19 posted from the four Asian countries from the start of their respective COVID-19 outbreaks in January until March 2020. We consult with locals and utilize relevant keywords from the local languages, following each country's tweet conventions. We then utilize a natural language processing (NLP) method to learn topics in an unsupervised fashion automatically. Finally, we qualitatively label the extracted topics to comprehend their semantic meanings. RESULTS We find that the official phases of the epidemic, as announced by the governments of the studied countries, do not align well with the online attention paid to COVID-19. Motivated by this misalignment, we develop a new natural language processing method to identify the transitions in topic phases and compare the identified topics across the four Asian countries. We examine the time lag between social media attention and confirmed patient counts. We confirm an inverse relationship between the tweet count and topic diversity. CONCLUSIONS Through the current research, we observe similarities and differences in the social media discourse on the pandemic in different Asian countries. We observe that once the daily tweet count hits its peak, the successive tweet count trend tends to decrease for all countries. This phenomenon aligns with the dynamics of the issue-attention cycle, an existing construct from communication theory conceptualizing how an issue rises and falls from public attention. Little work has been performed to identify topics in online risk communication by collectively considering temporal tweet trends in different countries. In this regard, if a critical piece of misinformation can be detected at an early stage in one country, it can be reported to prevent the spread of misinformation in other countries. Therefore, this work can help social media services, social media communicators, journalists, policymakers, and medical professionals fight the infodemic on a global scale. CLINICALTRIAL N/A

Dynamic Cross-Correlations between Investors’ Attention and CSI300 Index Futures

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950022
Author(s):  
Xiong Xiong ◽  
Kewei Xu ◽  
Dehua Shen
Keyword(s):  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Relative Activity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
The Cross

Using search volume on Baidu Index as the proxy for investors’ attention, we investigate the dynamic nonlinear relationship between investors’ attention and CSI300 index futures market. Multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) is employed to explore the multifractal features of the cross-correlations between investors’ attention and the return and relative activity of index futures market. We find that the power-law cross-correlations between investors’ attention and CSI300 index futures market are stronger in the short term than in the long term, and the cross-correlations are significantly multifractal. Precisely, the cross-correlation between abnormal search volume (ASV) and the relative activity is persistent, and the cross-correlation between ASV and return of IF is persistent in the short term but weakly anti-persistent in the long term. Besides, we also find that, with the restriction on index futures market, the cross-correlations between investors’ attention and CSI300 index futures market become less stable.

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