scholarly journals Impact of climate change on agricultural crops yield on the territory of the Republic of Armenia

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 03019
Author(s):  
Varduhi Margaryan ◽  
Gennady Tsibulskii ◽  
Elena Fedotova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Yield Increase ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Crops Yield ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the change in air temperature and precipitation, and also examines the impact of climate change on crop yields in the Republic of Armenia. As a source of information, the actual data of agrometeorological observations of the GEO "Center for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring" of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Armenia and the National Statistical Service are used. As a result of the study, it turned out that there are trends towards an increase in the average annual values of air temperature and heat provision of crops (in total temperatures above 10.0 ° C). In the studied area, there are no regular changes in the amount of atmospheric precipitation over the year. The impact of climate change will only worsen and lead to various problems in water industry, agriculture, energy, health and other sectors. In the republic in 2000-2018 are observed of both the gross harvest and agricultural crops yield increase, with the exception of the tobacco crop. However, this does not mean that agricultural crops are not affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Statistical assessment of the impact of climate change on social and demographic processes (on the example of the Yaroslavl region)

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
V. V. Zholudeva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Statistical Assessment ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to analyze current global and regional climate changes, as well as a statistical assessment of the factors that cause climate change, on the one hand, and an assessment of the impact of climate parameters on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes using the example of the Yaroslavl region, on the other hand. The study was conducted on the example of the Yaroslavl region and covers the period from 1922 to the present. First of all, the article analyzes the regulatory documents on ecology and climate change. The insufficient attention of federal and local authorities to solving the above problems, the lack of regional strategies to prevent climate change and reduce its negative consequences, which leads to the increased socio-economic risks, is noted. In order to identify factors causing climate change, a correlation and regression analysis was performed. Regression models of the dependence of crop yields on the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation were constructed. The statistical base of the study was compiled by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Yaroslavl Region, as well as GISMETEO data. Processing of the research results was carried out in Microsoft Excel and SPSS.During the study, it was found that in the Yaroslavl region there is an increase in average annual and average monthly air temperatures, as well as a slight increase in precipitation, which mainly occurs due to an increase in rainfall in spring and early summer.The anthropogenic factors that cause climate change, namely the burning of fossil fuels, an increase in industrial production, an increase in the number of vehicles, as well as a change in land use and deforestation, are identified and statistically substantiated.As a result of the study, it was found that changes in climatic parameters have an impact on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes, namely: – climate change has a positive effect on agricultural production. According to studies, an increase in average air temperature is a positive factor for the agricultural sector of the Yaroslavl region, as crop yields will increase with increasing air temperature. These trends need to be considered when choosing certain varieties of crops and selecting fertilizers. Increasing the level of management and the transition to more modern technologies will have a greater effect. The efficiency and productivity of agriculture, as well as the food security of the region, will depend on these decisions; – it was found that hydro meteorological factors have a negligible effect on the growth rate of gross regional product and food production; – a statistical study showed that in the Yaroslavl region the effects of climate change on demographic processes and human health are currently insignificant.The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and can serve as a basis for further research in the field of studying the impact of climate change on socio-economic and demographic processes in the Yaroslavl region.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

scholarly journals Climate change, household vulnerability and smart agriculture: The case of two South African provinces

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mkhululi Ncube ◽  
Nomonde Madubula ◽  
Hlami Ngwenya ◽  
Nkulumo Zinyengere ◽  
Leocadia Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Rural Households ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Household Vulnerability ◽  
Smart Agriculture ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated household vulnerability and assessed alternative adaptation strategies in rural areas. The results indicate that climate change will hit crop yields hard and that households with less capital are most vulnerable. These households consist of the elderly and households headed by females. Households that receive remittances or extension services or participate in formal savings schemes in villages are less vulnerable. The results suggest that households need to move towards climate-smart agriculture, which combines adaptation, mitigation and productivity growth.

scholarly journals AGROCLIMATIC ZONES AND YIELD OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN THE CHANGING CONDITIONS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-147
Author(s):  
Anna Scherbakova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Today there is enough scientific research to prove the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there is no conclusive conclusion as to what is in store for agriculture, its potential will increase or decrease. Significant consequences of the impact of climate change are likely to manifest themselves at the regional level, and this requires additional research for further adaptation of agriculture in the corresponding territory. The aim of the study is to assess changes in agro-climatic indicators at the regional level. The subject is the Komi Republic, located in the extreme northeast of the European part of the country. The chosen research methodology based on statistical processing of agro-climatic indicators for ten meteorological stations in the region for 1960-2018 and economic indicators of productivity and gross harvest of agricultural crops for 1913-2018 due to the large amount of data. Paired regression analysis used accurately interpret the results. The obtained mathematical models evaluated according to the Pearson coefficient, Student’s t-criterion, determination coefficient, F – Fisher’s criterion, so that the results of the study were reliable. For some regions, the consequences of climate change may turn out to be negative in the form of a decrease in food supply, for others - positive, due to an increase in the duration of the growing season and, accordingly, an increase in the potential productivity of agricultural crops. The relevance of the study is because these positive consequences will be especially characteristic for the northern territories. As a result, it revealed that in four agro-climatic regions of the Komi Republic, there were insignificant climatic changes for agriculture over a sixty-year period. An analysis of the yield of vegetables in open ground showed that it increased from 36 to 314 tons per hectare, and the gross yield of the main agricultural crop - potatoes - decreased almost 3 times, but the main reason is the reduction in acreage, and not climate change. However, the trend line for potato yields in the region as a whole shows an upward trend over a 100-year period. The performed paired regression analysis between the selected agro-climatic indicators and the yield of agricultural crops of the republic revealed an average direct relationship only between the yield of vegetables and the duration of the growing season, and the sum of average daily temperatures. Consequently, it is currently impossible to assert that the ongoing climatic changes have a significant impact on agriculture in the Komi Republic

RESEARCH OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF THE CAUCASUS REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-124
Author(s):  
BOZIEVA ZHANNA CH. ◽  
◽  
AGOEVA ELEONORA A. ◽  
ITTIEV ABDULLAX B. ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The negative effects of global climate change and the impact of rising surface air temperatures are already evident. Among the many echoes of these processes are the melting of glaciers, the reduction of the ice cover of the northern seas, the gradual disappearance of permafrost, sea level rise, soil erosion, and extreme weather events such as floods, hurricanes, droughts, and forest fires. As a result, the world's freshwater resources, public health and the well-being of the environment are under threat. Annually renewable fresh water resources, represented by the annual flow of rivers, are of undoubted value. Our goal was to identify the relationship of meteorological parameters, such as surface air temperature and precipitation in the high-altitude region of the Central Caucasus, with water consumption in the lowland territory of the Caucasus on the example of the river.Terek (art. Kotlyarevskaya). These studies are particularly valuable from the point of view of the relationship between climate change and its further impact on the hydrological cycle of the lowland regions of the Caucasus. In the course of the research, the relationship was revealed, indicating that the distribution of river flow over the territory of the Caucasus corresponds to the distribution of the annual amounts of surface air temperature and the annual amounts of atmospheric precipitation.

scholarly journals Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 63-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahnila Islam ◽  
Nicola Cenacchi ◽  
Timothy B. Sulser ◽  
Sika Gbegbelegbe ◽  
Guy Hareau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

scholarly journals Persepsi Petani Sayuran Tentang Dampak Perubahan Iklim di Sulawesi Selatan (Perception of Vegetable Farmers on the Impact of Climate Change in South Sulawesi)

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Witono Adiyoga ◽  
Rofik Sinung Basuki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Household Waste ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Vegetable Farmers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Walaupun masih terdapat ketidakpastian tentang kapan, bagaimana, dan di mana perubahan iklim akan berdampak negatif terhadap produksi pertanian dan ketahanan pangan, sebagian besar ilmuwan sepakat bahwa dampaknya terhadap sektor pertanian di daerah tropis akan semakin parah dibandingkan di daerah temperate. Tujuan penelitian adalah mempelajari persepsi petani tentang dampak perubahan iklim terhadap variabilitas cuaca yang terjadi dan dampak perubahan iklim terhadap usahatani. Penelitian survei dilaksanakan pada ekosistem sayuran di dataran tinggi dan rendah Sulawesi Selatan dari bulan Juni hingga Agustus 2012. Pada setiap ekosistem, 110 petani sayuran dipilih secara acak (total = 220 responden). Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui metode wawancara menggunakan kuesioner terstruktur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar responden lintas ekosistem dan pola musim mempersepsi tiga jenis kejadian alam akibat perubahan iklim secara signifikan yang menempati tiga urutan tertinggi pada awal musim tanam, yaitu (a) pola curah hujan sangat tidak menentu, (b) suhu udara meningkat, dan (c) musim hujan datang lebih awal, diikuti oleh minggu-minggu kering. Mayoritas responden juga mempersepsi tiga jenis kejadian cuaca ekstrim akibat perubahan iklim signifikannya menempati tiga urutan tertinggi, yaitu (a) sinar matahari sangat terik, (b) gelombang dan temperatur udara panas dan (c) kekeringan. Kebakaran hutan, asap hasil pembakaran bahan bakar oleh industri, asap kendaraan bermotor, dan penggundulan hutan secara konsisten, dikemukakan sebagian besar petani lintas ekosistem dan pola musim sebagai faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya perubahan iklim. Sementara itu, separuh lebih responden menyatakan ketidaksetujuan/keragu-raguannya bahwa usahatani sayuran yang dilakukan secara terus menerus, pembakaran limbah tanaman/rumah tangga, penggunaan pupuk/pestisida kimia berlebih, penggunaan kayu bakar, dan penggunaan air irigasi tinggi memberikan kontribusi cukup signifikan terhadap terjadinya perubahan iklim. Sebagian besar responden mempersepsi tiga dampak perubahan iklim terhadap usahatani yang signifikansinya menempati tiga urutan tertinggi, yaitu (a) risiko kegagalan panen yang semakin tinggi, (b) risiko kerugian usahatani yang semakin tinggi dan berpengaruh terhadap keberlanjutan usahatani, serta (c) suhu yang semakin tinggi menyebabkan peningkatan serangan hama dan munculnya hama baru. Kegiatan edukasi terpadu melalui penyuluhan pertanian maupun sekolah lapang iklim perlu terus dilakukan untuk mengoreksi beberapa perbedaan persepsi tentang penyebab perubahan iklim.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Sayuran; Dataran rendah; Dataran tinggi; Variabilitas iklim; Dampak perubahan iklim</p><p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Vegetable farmers’ perception of climate change impacts in South Sulawesi. Even though there are still uncertainties regarding when, how, and where the climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production and food security, most scientists agree that the impact of climate change on agricultural sector is more severe in the tropical regions as compared to the temperate regions. The objective of this study was to examine farmers’ perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on weather/climate variability and on their vegetable farms. A survey was carried out in lowland and highland vegetable areas of South Sulawesi in June until August 2012. In total, there were 220 respondents randomly selected for interview by using a structured questionnaire. Results suggest that most respondents across different ecosystem and seasonal pattern perceive three climates variability as the most important impacts of climate change i.e. (a) high uncertainty of rainfall pattern, (b) increasing air temperature and (c) earlier start of rainy season followed by dry weeks. Those respondents also perceive three most important extreme weathers, such as (a) intense heat/sun, (b) hot air temperature and waves and (c) long dry season. Forest fire, smoke from industrial fuel burning, smoke from motor vehicles and deforestation are consistently identified as factors that significantly contribute to the existence of climate change. Meanwhile, more than half of respondents are disagree or in doubt that continuous vegetable cultivation, crop/household waste, excessive use of fertilizers, and pesticides, use of cooking woods, and excessive use of irrigation water as factors that contribute to climate change. Most respondents perceive three most important impacts of climate change to their vegetable farms i.e. (a) increasing crop failure risk, (b) increasing financial loss risk that directly affects farm sustainability, and (c) increasing air temperature that tends to increase more severe pest/disease incidence and bring out new pests and diseases. A concerted educative effort through agricultural extension or climate field school should be carried out, especially to correct some misperceptions regarding causes of climate change.</p>

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