scholarly journals Daily Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Lazy Learning

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. 04041
Author(s):  
Haiying Li ◽  
Bingfang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Lazy Learning ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Fcm Clustering ◽  
Overfitting Problem

Daily electricity consumption is varying randomly. To improve forecasting accuracy, a Lazy Learning (LL) model is proposed. LL aims to build the regression forecasting models upon vectors which are chosen by K-vector nearest neighbors (K-VNN) method. K-VNN can solve overfitting problem and high accuracy can be ensured. Since there are many factors related to electricity consumption, Grey T's correlation degree is used to determine key indexes to further improve the running efficiency of the model. In addition, fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering is applied to explore the similar scenarios, then the searching scope of LL is reduced. A case studied in one building in Shanghai shows the proposed method can enhance the accuracy and efficiency of electricity consumption forecasting.

Fuzzy grey forecasting model optimized by moth-flame optimization algorithm for short time electricity consumption

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ceyda Tanyolaç Bilgiç ◽  
Boğaç Bilgiç ◽  
Ferhan Çebi
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
True Value ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moth Flame Optimization Algorithm

It is significant that the forecasting models give the closest result to the true value. Forecasting models are widespread in the literature. The grey model gives successful results with limited data. The existing Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model (TFGM (1,1)) in the literature is very useful in that it gives the maximum, minimum and average value directly in the data. A novel combined forecasting model named, Moth Flame Optimization Algorithm optimization of Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model, MFO-TFGM (1,1), is presented in this study. The existing TFGM (1,1) model parameters are optimized by a new nature- inspired heuristic algorithm named Moth-Flame Optimization algorithm which is inspired by the moths flying path. Unlike the studies in the literature, in order to improve the forecasting accuracy, six parameters (λL, λM, λR, α, β and γ) were optimized. After the steps of the model is presented, a forecasting implementation has been made with the proposed model. Turkey’s hourly electricity consumption data is utilized to show the success of the prediction model. Prediction results of proposed model is compared with TFGM (1,1). MFO-TFGM (1,1) performs higher forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals A NEW HYBRID FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON COMBINING FUZZY C-MEANS CLUSTERING AND PARTICLE SWAM OPTIMIZATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-292
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh ◽  
Nguyen Cong Dieu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fcm Clustering

Fuzzy time series (FTS) model is one of the effective tools that can be used to identify factors in order to solve the complex process and uncertainty. Nowadays, it has been widely used in many forecasting problems. However, establishing effective fuzzy relationships groups, finding proper length of each interval, and building defuzzification rule are three issues that exist in FTS model. Therefore, in this paper, a novel FTS forecasting model based on fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering and particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed to enhance the forecasting accuracy. Firstly, the FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into intervals with different lengths. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets. Following, fuzzy relationship groups were established based on the appearance history of the fuzzy sets on the right-hand side of the fuzzy logical relationships with the aim to serve for calculating the forecasting output.  Finally, the proposed model combined with PSO algorithm was applied to adjust interval lengths and find proper intervals in the universe of discourse for obtaining the best forecasting accuracy. To verify the effectiveness of the forecasting model, three numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange –TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium) are selected to illustrate the proposed model. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model is better than any existing forecasting models in term of forecasting accuracy based on the first – order and high-order FTS.

scholarly journals A NEW HYBRID FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON COMBINING FUZZY C-MEANS CLUSTERING AND PARTICLE SWAM OPTIMIZATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-292
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh ◽  
Nguyen Cong Dieu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fcm Clustering

Fuzzy time series (FTS) model is one of the effective tools that can be used to identify factors in order to solve the complex process and uncertainty. Nowadays, it has been widely used in many forecasting problems. However, establishing effective fuzzy relationships groups, finding proper length of each interval, and building defuzzification rule are three issues that exist in FTS model. Therefore, in this paper, a novel FTS forecasting model based on fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering and particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed to enhance the forecasting accuracy. Firstly, the FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into intervals with different lengths. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets. Following, fuzzy relationship groups were established based on the appearance history of the fuzzy sets on the right-hand side of the fuzzy logical relationships with the aim to serve for calculating the forecasting output.  Finally, the proposed model combined with PSO algorithm was applied to adjust interval lengths and find proper intervals in the universe of discourse for obtaining the best forecasting accuracy. To verify the effectiveness of the forecasting model, three numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange –TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium) are selected to illustrate the proposed model. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model is better than any existing forecasting models in term of forecasting accuracy based on the first – order and high-order FTS.

Segmentation of Tuberculosis Bacilli Using Watershed Transformation and Fuzzy C-Means

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Rahadian Kurniawan ◽  
Izzati Muhimmah ◽  
Arrie Kurniawardhani ◽  
Sri Kusumadewi
Keyword(s):  
Microscopic Analysis ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Kappa Coefficient ◽  
Field Of View ◽  
Resistant Bacteria ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Watershed Transformation ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Manual Calculation

The easily transmitted Tuberculosis (TB) disease is attributed to the fact that Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (MTB) bacteria/viruses can be transmitted through the air. One of the methods to screen the TB disease is by reading sputum slides. Sputum slides are colored sputum samples of TB patients placed on microscopic slides. However, TB disease microscopic analysis has some limitations since it requires high accuracy reading and well-trained health personnel to avoid errors in the process of interpretation. Furthermore, the number of TB patients in the Primary Health Care (PHC) and the process of manual calculation of bacteria in a field of view often complicate the decision-making in the screening process conducted by the medical staffs. In this paper, the researchers propose the use of Watershed Transformation and Fuzzy C-Means combination to help solve the problem. The researchers collect the photo shooting of three PHC in Indonesia with 55 images of sputum from different TB patients. The assessed results of the proposed method are compared with the opinions of three Microbiology doctors. The comparison shows Cohen’s Kappa Coefficient value of 0.838. It suggests that the proposed method can detect Acid Resistant Bacteria (ARB) although it needs some improvement to achieve higher accuracy.

scholarly journals Improved Fuzzy C-Means Clustering for Transformer Fault Diagnosis Using Dissolved Gas Analysis Data

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enwen Li ◽  
Linong Wang ◽  
Bin Song ◽  
Siliang Jian
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Membership Function ◽  
Data Clustering ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Gas Analysis ◽  
Dissolved Gas ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Dissolved Gas Analysis ◽  
Fcm Clustering ◽  
Transformer Fault

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) of the oil allows transformer fault diagnosis and status monitoring. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering is an effective pattern recognition method, but exhibits poor clustering accuracy for dissolved gas data and usually fails to subsequently correctly classify transformer faults. The existing feasible approach involves combination of the FCM clustering algorithm with other intelligent algorithms, such as neural networks and support vector machines. This method enables good classification; however, the algorithm complexity is greatly increased. In this paper, the FCM clustering algorithm itself is improved and clustering analysis of DGA data is realized. First, the non-monotonicity of the traditional clustering membership function with respect to the sample distance and its several local extrema are discussed, which mainly explain the poor classification accuracy of DGA data clustering. Then, an exponential form of the membership function is proposed to obtain monotony with respect to distance, thereby improving the dissolved gas data clustering. Likewise, a similarity function to determine the degree of membership is derived. Test results for large datasets show that the improved clustering algorithm can be successfully applied for DGA-data-based transformer fault detection.

Improved Fuzzy FCM-LI Algorithm

2013 ◽  
Vol 765-767 ◽  
pp. 670-673
Author(s):  
Li Bo Hou
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Feature Analysis ◽  
Cluster Center ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Fcm Clustering ◽  
Np Hard Problem

Fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm is one of the widely applied algorithms in non-supervision of pattern recognition. However, FCM algorithm in the iterative process requires a lot of calculations, especially when feature vectors has high-dimensional, Use clustering algorithm to sub-heap, not only inefficient, but also may lead to "the curse of dimensionality." For the problem, This paper analyzes the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm in high dimensional feature of the process, the problem of cluster center is an np-hard problem, In order to improve the effectiveness and Real-time of fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm in high dimensional feature analysis, Combination of landmark isometric (L-ISOMAP) algorithm, Proposed improved algorithm FCM-LI. Preliminary analysis of the samples, Use clustering results and the correlation of sample data, using landmark isometric (L-ISOMAP) algorithm to reduce the dimension, further analysis on the basis, obtained the final results. Finally, experimental results show that the effectiveness and Real-time of FCM-LI algorithm in high dimensional feature analysis.

scholarly journals A Bi-directional Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Ensemble Algorithm Considering Local Information

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhua Ren ◽  
Linfu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Local Information ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Clustering Ensemble ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Clustering Quality ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Fcm Clustering

AbstractThe classic Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm has limited clustering performance and is prone to misclassification of border points. This study offers a bi-directional FCM clustering ensemble approach that takes local information into account (LI_BIFCM) to overcome these challenges and increase clustering quality. First, various membership matrices are created after running FCM multiple times, based on the randomization of the initial cluster centers, and a vertical ensemble is performed using the maximum membership principle. Second, after each execution of FCM, multiple local membership matrices of the sample points are created using multiple K-nearest neighbors, and a horizontal ensemble is performed. Multiple horizontal ensembles can be created using multiple FCM clustering. Finally, the final clustering results are obtained by combining the vertical and horizontal clustering ensembles. Twelve data sets were chosen for testing from both synthetic and real data sources. The LI_BIFCM clustering performance outperformed four traditional clustering algorithms and three clustering ensemble algorithms in the experiments. Furthermore, the final clustering results has a weak correlation with the bi-directional cluster ensemble parameters, indicating that the suggested technique is robust.

Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of Fuzzy Time Series Model Based on Combined Fuzzy C-Mean Clustering with Particle Swam Optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050017
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Over the past 25 years, numerous fuzzy time series forecasting models have been proposed to deal the complex and uncertain problems. The main factors that affect the forecasting results of these models are partition universe of discourse, creation of fuzzy relationship groups and defuzzification of forecasting output values. So, this study presents a hybrid fuzzy time series forecasting model combined particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) for solving issues above. The FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into initial intervals with unequal size. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets with the aim to serve for establishing fuzzy relationship groups according to chronological order. Then the information obtained from the fuzzy relationship groups can be used to calculate forecasted value based on a new defuzzification technique. In addition, in order to enhance forecasting accuracy, the PSO algorithm is used for finding optimum interval lengths in the universe of discourse. The proposed model is applied to forecast three well-known numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange —TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium). These datasets are also examined by using some other forecasting models available in the literature. The forecasting results obtained from the proposed model are compared to those produced by the other models. It is observed that the proposed model achieves higher forecasting accuracy than its counterparts for both first—order and high—order fuzzy logical relationship.

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