Fuzzy grey forecasting model optimized by moth-flame optimization algorithm for short time electricity consumption

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ceyda Tanyolaç Bilgiç ◽  
Boğaç Bilgiç ◽  
Ferhan Çebi
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
True Value ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moth Flame Optimization Algorithm

It is significant that the forecasting models give the closest result to the true value. Forecasting models are widespread in the literature. The grey model gives successful results with limited data. The existing Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model (TFGM (1,1)) in the literature is very useful in that it gives the maximum, minimum and average value directly in the data. A novel combined forecasting model named, Moth Flame Optimization Algorithm optimization of Triangular Fuzzy Grey Model, MFO-TFGM (1,1), is presented in this study. The existing TFGM (1,1) model parameters are optimized by a new nature- inspired heuristic algorithm named Moth-Flame Optimization algorithm which is inspired by the moths flying path. Unlike the studies in the literature, in order to improve the forecasting accuracy, six parameters (λL, λM, λR, α, β and γ) were optimized. After the steps of the model is presented, a forecasting implementation has been made with the proposed model. Turkey’s hourly electricity consumption data is utilized to show the success of the prediction model. Prediction results of proposed model is compared with TFGM (1,1). MFO-TFGM (1,1) performs higher forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals A Neutrosophic Forecasting Model for Time Series Based on First-Order State and Information Entropy of High-Order Fluctuation

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Guan ◽  
Zongli Dai ◽  
Shuang Guan ◽  
Aiwu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
High Order ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Neutrosophic Set ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model

In time series forecasting, information presentation directly affects prediction efficiency. Most existing time series forecasting models follow logical rules according to the relationships between neighboring states, without considering the inconsistency of fluctuations for a related period. In this paper, we propose a new perspective to study the problem of prediction, in which inconsistency is quantified and regarded as a key characteristic of prediction rules. First, a time series is converted to a fluctuation time series by comparing each of the current data with corresponding previous data. Then, the upward trend of each of fluctuation data is mapped to the truth-membership of a neutrosophic set, while a falsity-membership is used for the downward trend. Information entropy of high-order fluctuation time series is introduced to describe the inconsistency of historical fluctuations and is mapped to the indeterminacy-membership of the neutrosophic set. Finally, an existing similarity measurement method for the neutrosophic set is introduced to find similar states during the forecasting stage. Then, a weighted arithmetic averaging (WAA) aggregation operator is introduced to obtain the forecasting result according to the corresponding similarity. Compared to existing forecasting models, the neutrosophic forecasting model based on information entropy (NFM-IE) can represent both fluctuation trend and fluctuation consistency information. In order to test its performance, we used the proposed model to forecast some realistic time series, such as the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI), and the Hang Seng Index (HSI). The experimental results show that the proposed model can stably predict for different datasets. Simultaneously, comparing the prediction error to other approaches proves that the model has outstanding prediction accuracy and universality.

scholarly journals A New Approach to Improve Accuracy of Grey Model GMC(1,n)in Time Series Prediction

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sompop Moonchai ◽  
Wanwisa Rakpuang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
System Behavior ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Improve Accuracy ◽  
Relative Factors

This paper presents a modified grey model GMC(1,n)for use in systems that involve one dependent system behavior andn-1relative factors. The proposed model was developed from the conventional GMC(1,n)model in order to improve its prediction accuracy by modifying the formula for calculating the background value, the system of parameter estimation, and the model prediction equation. The modified GMC(1,n)model was verified by two cases: the study of forecasting CO2emission in Thailand and forecasting electricity consumption in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the modified GMC(1,n)model was able to achieve higher fitting and prediction accuracy compared with the conventional GMC(1,n)and D-GMC(1,n)models.

Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of Fuzzy Time Series Model Based on Combined Fuzzy C-Mean Clustering with Particle Swam Optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050017
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Over the past 25 years, numerous fuzzy time series forecasting models have been proposed to deal the complex and uncertain problems. The main factors that affect the forecasting results of these models are partition universe of discourse, creation of fuzzy relationship groups and defuzzification of forecasting output values. So, this study presents a hybrid fuzzy time series forecasting model combined particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) for solving issues above. The FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into initial intervals with unequal size. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets with the aim to serve for establishing fuzzy relationship groups according to chronological order. Then the information obtained from the fuzzy relationship groups can be used to calculate forecasted value based on a new defuzzification technique. In addition, in order to enhance forecasting accuracy, the PSO algorithm is used for finding optimum interval lengths in the universe of discourse. The proposed model is applied to forecast three well-known numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange —TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium). These datasets are also examined by using some other forecasting models available in the literature. The forecasting results obtained from the proposed model are compared to those produced by the other models. It is observed that the proposed model achieves higher forecasting accuracy than its counterparts for both first—order and high—order fuzzy logical relationship.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model based on Frequency Density and Similarity Measure Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.30) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Nazirah Ramli ◽  
Siti Musleha Ab Mutalib ◽  
Daud Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Similarity Measure ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy Forecast

This paper proposes an enhanced fuzzy time series (FTS) prediction model that can keep some information under a various level of confidence throughout the forecasting procedure. The forecasting accuracy is developed based on the similarity between the fuzzified historical data and the fuzzy forecast values. No defuzzification process involves in the proposed method. The frequency density method is used to partition the interval, and the area and height type of similarity measure is utilized to get the forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is applied in a numerical example of the unemployment rate in Malaysia. The results show that on average 96.9% of the forecast values are similar to the historical data. The forecasting error based on the distance of the similarity measure is 0.031. The forecasting accuracy can be obtained directly from the forecast values of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers form without experiencing the defuzzification procedure.

A variable-order fractional discrete grey model and its application

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Huang Meixin ◽  
Liu Caixia
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Variable Order ◽  
Matrix Perturbation ◽  
Application Range ◽  
Whale Optimization ◽  
Grey Models ◽  
The Stability

Fractional order grey model is effective in describing the uncertainty of the system. In this paper, we propose a novel variable-order fractional discrete grey model (short for VOFDGM(1,1)) by combining the discrete grey model and variable-order fractional accumulation, which is a more general form of the DGM(1,1). The detailed modeling procedure of the presented model is first systematically studied, in particular, matrix perturbation theory is used to prove the validity in terms of the stability of the model, and then, the model parameters are optimized by the whale optimization algorithm. The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by comparing it with classical models on six data sequences with different forms. Finally, the model is applied to predict the electricity consumption of Beijing and Liaoning Province of China, and the results show that the model has a better prediction performance compared with the other four commonly-used grey models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the variable-order fractional accumulation is introduced into the discrete grey model, which greatly increases the prediction accuracy of the DGM(1,1) and extends the application range of grey models.

scholarly journals Daily Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Lazy Learning

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 ◽  
pp. 04041
Author(s):  
Haiying Li ◽  
Bingfang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Lazy Learning ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Fcm Clustering ◽  
Overfitting Problem

Daily electricity consumption is varying randomly. To improve forecasting accuracy, a Lazy Learning (LL) model is proposed. LL aims to build the regression forecasting models upon vectors which are chosen by K-vector nearest neighbors (K-VNN) method. K-VNN can solve overfitting problem and high accuracy can be ensured. Since there are many factors related to electricity consumption, Grey T's correlation degree is used to determine key indexes to further improve the running efficiency of the model. In addition, fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering is applied to explore the similar scenarios, then the searching scope of LL is reduced. A case studied in one building in Shanghai shows the proposed method can enhance the accuracy and efficiency of electricity consumption forecasting.

scholarly journals Multi-Step-Ahead Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Fast Multi-Output Relevance Vector Regression Optimized by the Multi-Objective Whale Optimization Algorithm

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenghua Xiong ◽  
Chunfeng Wang ◽  
Zhenming Fang ◽  
Dan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Variational Mode Decomposition ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Whale Optimization ◽  
Relevance Vector Regression ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

The accurate and stable forecasting of carbon prices is vital for governors to make policies and essential for market participants to make investment decisions, which is important for promoting the development of carbon markets and reducing carbon emissions in China. However, it is challenging to improve the carbon price forecasting accuracy due to its non-linearity and non-stationary characteristics, especially in multi-step-ahead forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid multi-step-ahead forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), fast multi-output relevance vector regression (FMRVR), and the multi-objective whale optimization algorithm (MOWOA) is proposed. VMD is employed to extract the primary mode for the carbon price. Then, FMRVR, which is used as the forecasting module, is built on the preprocessed data. To achieve high accuracy and stability, the MOWOA is utilized to optimize the kernel parameter and input the lag of the FMRVR. The proposed hybrid forecasting model is applied to carbon price series from three major regional carbon emission exchanges in China. Results show that the proposed VMD-FMRVR-MOWOA model achieves better performance compared to several other multi-output models in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. The proposed model can be a potential and effective technique for multi-step-ahead carbon price forecasting in China’s three major regional emission exchanges.

scholarly journals Electricity Load and Price Forecasting Using Jaya-Long Short Term Memory (JLSTM) in Smart Grids

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabiya Khalid ◽  
Nadeem Javaid ◽  
Fahad A. Al-zahrani ◽  
Khursheed Aurangzeb ◽  
Emad-ul-Haq Qazi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In the smart grid (SG) environment, consumers are enabled to alter electricity consumption patterns in response to electricity prices and incentives. This results in prices that may differ from the initial price pattern. Electricity price and demand forecasting play a vital role in the reliability and sustainability of SG. Forecasting using big data has become a new hot research topic as a massive amount of data is being generated and stored in the SG environment. Electricity users, having advanced knowledge of prices and demand of electricity, can manage their load efficiently. In this paper, a recurrent neural network (RNN), long short term memory (LSTM), is used for electricity price and demand forecasting using big data. Researchers are working actively to propose new models of forecasting. These models contain a single input variable as well as multiple variables. From the literature, we observed that the use of multiple variables enhances the forecasting accuracy. Hence, our proposed model uses multiple variables as input and forecasts the future values of electricity demand and price. The hyperparameters of this algorithm are tuned using the Jaya optimization algorithm to improve the forecasting ability and increase the training mechanism of the model. Parameter tuning is necessary because the performance of a forecasting model depends on the values of these parameters. Selection of inappropriate values can result in inaccurate forecasting. So, integration of an optimization method improves the forecasting accuracy with minimum user efforts. For efficient forecasting, data is preprocessed and cleaned from missing values and outliers, using the z-score method. Furthermore, data is normalized before forecasting. The forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). For a fair comparison, the proposed forecasting model is compared with univariate LSTM and support vector machine (SVM). The values of the performance metrics depict that the proposed model has higher accuracy than SVM and univariate LSTM.

Parameter estimation of single diode PV module based on Nelder-Mead optimization algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alivarani Mohapatra ◽  
Byamakesh Nayak ◽  
Kanungo Barada Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Proposed Model

Purpose This paper aims to propose a simple, derivative-free novel method named as Nelder–Mead optimization algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters of the photovoltaic (PV) module considering the environmental conditions. Design/methodology/approach At a particular temperature and irradiation, experimental current-voltage (I-V) and power-voltage (P-V) characteristics are drawn and considered as a reference model. The PV system model with unknown model parameters is considered as the adaptive model whose unknown model parameters are to be adapted so that the simulated characteristics closely matches with the experimental characteristics. A single diode (Rsh) model with five unknown model parameters is considered here for the parameter estimation. Findings The key advantages of this method are that parameters are estimated considering environmental conditions. Experimental characteristics are considered for parameter estimation which gives accurate results. Parameters are estimated considering both I-V and P-V curves as most of the applications demand extraction of the actual power from the PV module. Originality/value The proposed model is compared with other three well-known models available in the literature considering various statistical errors. The results show the superiority of the proposed model with a minimum error for both I-V and P-V characteristics.

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