scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Charpentier ◽  
Romuald Elie ◽  
Mathieu Laurière ◽  
Viet Chi Tran
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Capacity Level ◽  
Parametric Specification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Short Transition

An extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, is considered: the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected or undetected and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. We identify the optimal policy for controlling the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers, and taking into account the trade-off between the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. With parametric specification based on the COVID-19 literature, we investigate the sensitivities of various quantities on the optimal strategies. The optimal lockdown policy is structured into 4 phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal scenario avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is released sufficiently slowly. Whenever massive resources are introduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing can be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals to be more moderate.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic control: balancing detection policy and lockdown intervention under ICU sustainability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Charpentier ◽  
Romuald Elie ◽  
Mathieu Laurière ◽  
Viet Chi Tran
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Capacity Level ◽  
Parametric Specification ◽  
Short Transition

AbstractWe consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (−) and we also integrate an intensive care unit capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both lockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based on literature on COVID-19, we investigate sensitivity of various quantities on optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle tradeoff between the sanitary and the economic cost of the pandemic, together with the limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as an intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong lockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a short transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long period with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to normal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. We also provide optimal intervention measures with increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on detection of infectious and immune individuals.

How much lockdown policies contribute to local unemployment? Evidence from the first and second waves of COVID-19

FEDS Notes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2903) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Marcus Dockerty ◽  
◽  
Antonis Kotidis ◽  
Ilknur Zer ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Local Employment

Did people reduce their social interactions as a result of the pandemic, restrictive lockdown policies, or both? What was the impact of reduced social interactions on local employment? Importantly, why did unemployment spike during the first wave of the pandemic, but gradually decline thereafter, even though the outbreak was much more severe during the second wave? In this note, we attempt to answer these questions by exploiting newly available data on hours worked among small firms at the industry-county-state-week level.

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

scholarly journals The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on adult diagnostic neuroradiology in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Smits ◽  
M. W. Vernooij ◽  
N. Bargalló ◽  
A. Ramos ◽  
T. A. Yousry
Keyword(s):  
Online Courses ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Personal Protection Equipment ◽  
Work Training ◽  
Healthcare Crisis ◽  
Area Of Concern ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Diagnostic Neuroradiology

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this survey was to understand the impact the Covid-19 pandemic has or has had on the work, training, and wellbeing of professionals in the field of diagnostic neuroradiology. Methods A survey was emailed to all ESNR members and associates as well as distributed via professional social media channels. The survey was held in the summer of 2020 when the first wave had subsided in most of Europe, while the second wave was not yet widespread. The questionnaire featured a total of 46 questions on general demographics, the various phases of the healthcare crisis, and the numbers of Covid-19 patients. Results One hundred sixty-seven responses were received from 48 countries mostly from neuroradiologists (72%). Most commonly taken measures during the crisis phase were reduction of outpatient exams (87%), reduction of number of staff present in the department (83%), reporting from home (62%), and shift work (54%). In the exit phase, these measures were less frequently applied, but reporting from home was still frequent (33%). However, only 22% had access to a fully equipped work station at home. While 81% felt safe at work during the crisis, fewer than 50% had sufficient personal protection equipment for the duration of the entire crisis. Mental wellbeing is an area of concern, with 61% feeling (much) worse than usual. Many followed online courses/congresses and considered these a viable alternative for the future. Conclusion The Covid-19 pandemic substantially affected the professional life as well as personal wellbeing of neuroradiologists.

scholarly journals A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Oana Petrof ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Initial Wave ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Stochastic Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background In response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. Methods We analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. Results Our model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. Conclusions Contacts during leisure activities are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment of social contacts in the population is therefore crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion.

scholarly journals Assessing Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka, Japan: A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1256
Author(s):  
Ko Nakajo ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Osaka Prefecture ◽  
Time Of Infection ◽  
Single Intervention ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Combined Interventions

Estimation of the effective reproduction number, R(t), of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in real-time is a continuing challenge. R(t) reflects the epidemic dynamics based on readily available illness onset data, and is useful for the planning and implementation of public health and social measures. In the present study, we proposed a method for computing the R(t) of COVID-19, and applied this method to the epidemic in Osaka prefecture from February to September 2020. We estimated R(t) as a function of the time of infection using the date of illness onset. The epidemic in Osaka came under control around 2 April during the first wave, and 26 July during the second wave. R(t) did not decline drastically following any single intervention. However, when multiple interventions were combined, the relative reductions in R(t) during the first and second waves were 70% and 51%, respectively. Although the second wave was brought under control without declaring a state of emergency, our model comparison indicated that relying on a single intervention would not be sufficient to reduce R(t) < 1. The outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rely on political leadership to swiftly design and implement combined interventions capable of broadly and appropriately reducing contacts.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Inequalities: Individual and Area Socioeconomic Factors (Aragón, Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6607
Author(s):  
Isabel Aguilar-Palacio ◽  
Lina Maldonado ◽  
Sara Malo ◽  
Raquel Sánchez-Recio ◽  
Iván Marcos-Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Deprivation Level ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Multilevel Analyses ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

It is essential to understand the impact of social inequalities on the risk of COVID-19 infection in order to mitigate the social consequences of the pandemic. With this aim, the objective of our study was to analyze the effect of socioeconomic inequalities, both at the individual and area of residence levels, on the probability of COVID-19 confirmed infection, and its variations across three pandemic waves. We conducted a retrospective cohort study and included data from all individuals tested for COVID-19 during the three waves of the pandemic, from March to December 2020 (357,989 individuals) in Aragón (Spain). We studied the effect of inequalities on the risk of having a COVID-19 confirmed diagnosis after being tested using multilevel analyses with two levels of aggregation: individuals and basic healthcare area of residence (deprivation level and type of zone). Inequalities in the risk of COVID-19 confirmed infection were observed at both the individual and area level. There was a predominance of low-paid employees living in deprived areas. Workers with low salaries, unemployed and people on minimum integration income or who no longer receive the unemployment allowance, had a higher probability of COVID-19 infection than workers with salaries ≥ €18,000 per year. Inequalities were greater in women and in the second wave. The deprivation level of areas of residence influenced the risk of COVID-19 infection, especially in the second wave. It is necessary to develop individual and area coordinated measures by areas in the control, diagnosis and treatment of the epidemic, in order to avoid an increase in the already existing inequalities.

Environmentally friendly automated line for recovering aluminium and lithium iron phosphate components of spent lithium-iron phosphate batteries

2021 ◽  
pp. 0734242X2098206
Author(s):  
Haijun Bi ◽  
Huabing Zhu ◽  
Jialin Zhan ◽  
Lei Zu ◽  
Yuxuan Bai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Production Line ◽  
Lithium Iron Phosphate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Iron Phosphate ◽  
Dust Collector ◽  
Gas Treatment ◽  
Pneumatic Separation ◽  
Automated Line ◽  
The Impact

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries contain metals, toxic electrolytes, organic chemicals and plastics that can lead to serious safety and environmental problems when they are improperly disposed of. The published literature on recovering spent LFP batteries mainly focuses on policy-making and conceptual design. The production line of recovering spent LFP batteries and its detailed operation are rarely reported. A set of automatic line without negative impact to the environment for recycling spent LFP batteries at industrial scale was investigated in this study. It includes crushing, pneumatic separation, sieving, and poison gas treatment processes. The optimum retaining time of materials in the crusher is 3 minutes. The release rate is the highest when the load of the impact crusher is 800 g. An air current separator (ACS) was designed to separate LFP from aluminium (Al) foil and LFP powder mixture. Movement behaviour of LFP powder and Al foil in the ACS were analysed, and the optimized operation parameter (35.46 m/s) of air current speed was obtained through theoretical analysis and experiments. The weight contents of an Al foil powder collector from vibrating screen-3 and LFP powder collector from bag-type dust collector are approximately 38.7% and 52.4%, respectively. The economic cost of full manual dismantling is higher than the recovery production line. This recycling system provides a feasible method for recycling spent LFP batteries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document