scholarly journals Econometric modelling of bank activities: value-based approach to the problem loans terms’ rescheduling

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 09002
Author(s):  
Serhii Onikiienko ◽  
Mykhailo Dyba ◽  
Iuliia Gernego
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Schematic Representation ◽  
Credit Period ◽  
Effective Period ◽  
Payment Schedule ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Econometric Approach

The permanent state of the financial crisis has predictably brought to the forefront such traditional problem of banking as problem loans. This research aims to work out an econometric approach to the solution of the problem of loans terms’ rescheduling. For this purpose, we, firstly, treated credit as a bank’s investment project with cashflows’ chart including initial outflow (principal) and following inflows represented by loan payments. Secondly, we combined the schematic representation of loan’s cashflows with NPV formula accustomed to loan’s cashflows and it allowed to create the econometric models for three types of loan: classic, annuity, serial. Thirdly, for the case when borrower breaks a loan’s payment schedule and it leads to the reduction of loan’s NPV and loss of the wealth of bank’s shareholders, respectively, we outlined special compensative models of cashflows where default in payment is interpreted by the lender as an additional forced loan. We suggested modifying the loan terms (interest rate or effective period of the loan agreement) for the rest of payment periods. Fourthly, we laid the special compensative models of forced loans’ cashflows a top corresponded initial cashflows of loans and this has made it possible to get formulas calculating the modified interest rate and the additional number of loans’ payment periods with the aid of backward calculation. As a result, we developed the econometric models of the loan terms’ modifications based on the prolongation of the initial credit period and the increasing of the initial interest rate.

Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Developed Economies

Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and, finally developed economies’ implementation of unconventional monetary policies. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing (QE), ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. One of the regions most profoundly affected by the crisis was Asia due to its high dependence on international trade and international financial linkages. The objective of this book is to explain how macroeconomic shocks stemming from the global financial crisis and recent unconventional monetary policies in developed economies have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets, with a particular focus on Asia. In particular, the book covers the following thematic areas: (i) the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in emerging economies; (ii) the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks on real economies in emerging markets; and (iii) key challenges for the monetary, exchange rate, trade, and macroprudential policies of developing economies, especially Asian economies, and suggestions and recommendations to increase resiliency against external shocks.

Capital Budgeting and business cycles

2021 ◽  
pp. 315-335
Author(s):  
Edward W. Fuller
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Demand Curve ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
The Other ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Interest Rate

Every investment project is aimed at achieving some future goal. This goal can only be attained by employing scarce resources, like time. Every investment project entails foregoing other investment projects. It is impossible to undertake all investment projects simultaneously because resources are scarce. This means each investment project is subject to cost. The investment project may be unsuccessful in achieving the future goal and the entrepreneur may suffer a loss. On the other hand, investment projects are only undertaken because they are perceived as more valuable than their costs. Every investment project undertaken implies the possibility of earning a profit. Investment projects take time. An investment project can be represented by a time line. Time A represents the beginning of the production process. Time B is the end of the production pro-cess. Line AB is called the period of production. Present goods are scarce resources that can be consumed im-mediately. On the other hand, future goods cannot be consumed immediately. Future goods are only expected to be consumer goods at some point in the future. An investment project entails making an investment at time A and receiving a present good at time B. All else equal, present goods are more valuable than future goods.1 Any good at time A is more valuable than the same good at time B. This is called time preference. Money is the present good par excellence. Therefore, future goods can be called future cash flows. All else equal, present money is more valuable than future money. This is called the time value of money. The interest rate is the price of present goods in terms of future goods. The interest rate is the price which equates the amount of present goods provided by savers with the amount of present goods demanded by investors. Like all prices, the interest rate is determined by supply and demand. Savers are suppliers of present goods. The supply curve (S) is the quantity of present goods supplied at each interest rate. Factor owners (investors) are the demanders, or buyers, of present goods. The demand curve (D) is the quantity of present goods demanded at each interest rate. The intersection of the supply and demand curve determines the interest rate. The interest rate is determined by the supply and demand for present goods:2

US Financial Debt Crisis: A Stochastic Optimal Control Approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerome L. Stein
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Stochastic Optimal Control ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Capital Gain ◽  
Empirical Measure ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Control Approach

SummaryThe financial crisis was precipitated by the mortgage crisis. A whole structure of financial derivatives was based upon the ultimate debtors, the mortgagors. Insofar as the mortgagors were unable to service their debts, the values of the derivatives fell. The financial intermediaries whose assets and liabilities were based upon the value of derivatives were very highly leveraged. Changes in the values of their net worth were large multiples of changes in asset values. A cascade was precipitated by the mortgage defaults. In this manner, the mortgage debt crisis turned into a financial crisis. The crucial variable is the optimal debt of the real estate sector, which depends upon the capital gain and the interest rate. I apply the Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) analysis to derive the optimal debt. Two models of the stochastic process on the capital gain and interest rate are presented. Each implies a different value of the optimal debt/net worth. I derive an upper bound of the optimal debt ratio, based upon the alternative models. An empirical measure of the excess debt: actual less the upper bound of the optimal ratio, is shown to be an early warning signal (EWS) of the debt crisis.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Approach of the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank to the Effects of the Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-46
Author(s):  
Andrea Cecrdlova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
European Central ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The latest global crisis, which fully erupted in 2008, can have a significant impact on central banks credibility in the long run. During the last crisis, monetary authorities encountered zero interest rate levels and, as a result, started to use non-standard monetary policy instruments. The Czech National Bank decided to use a less standard instrument in November 2013, when it started to intervene on the foreign exchange market in order to keep the Czech currency at level 27 CZK / EUR. However, the European Central Bank also adopted a non-standard instrument, when chose a path of quantitative easing in 2015 in order to support the euro area economy by purchasing financial assets. The question remains whether the approach of Czech National Bank or the approach of European Central Bank in the crisis and post-crisis period was a more appropriate alternative. With the passage of time from the global financial crisis, it is already possible to compare the approaches of these two central banks and at least partially assess what approach was more appropriate under the given conditions. When comparing the central banks approaches to the crisis, the Czech National Bank was better, both in terms of the rate of interest rate cuts and the resulting inflation with regard to the choice of a non-standard monetary policy instrument. The recent financial crisis has revealed the application of moral hazard in practice, both on behalf of the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank, which may have a significant impact on their credibility and independence in the coming years.

Measuring the Impact of Financial Crisis

2016 ◽  
pp. 274-283
Author(s):  
İsmail Yıldırım
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Destructive Effect ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Financial Stress Index ◽  
The Impact

Crisis in 2001 and global financial crisis in 2008 effect Turk economy in a lot of ways. Financial crisis creates destructive effect especially on increasing market economies. It is not so easy to watch occurring of this financial crisis and determining of its expanding. First of all determining of crisis terms are needed to predict of financial crisis. In this part, a financial stress index is composed by using TL interest rate and monthly data of global gross reserves belongs to $/TL exchange rate between 1997:01-2014:12 terms for Turkey. Months when financial stress index raised to top level for Turkey and financial crisis are observed on, are found as February(2001) and November (2008).

Do farm service agency borrowers' double minority labels lead to more unfavorable loan packaging terms?

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (5) ◽  
pp. 633-646
Author(s):  
Jyotsna Ghimire ◽  
Cesar L. Escalante ◽  
Ramesh Ghimire ◽  
Charles B. Dodson
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Simulation Optimization ◽  
Service Agency ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Farm Service Agency ◽  
Double Minority

PurposeThis study adds a new dimension in the study of racial and gender bias in farm lending. Most previous studies analyzed the separate effects of race and gender attributes on loan approval decisions. The analysis focuses on the stipulation of loan terms (loan amount, interest rate and maturity) among approved farm loan applications. The time period analyzed spans from 2004 until 2014 during which the government has undertaken reforms to improve delivery of loan services to its clientele of minority farmers. Thus, this study's findings could help validate the effectivity of such institutional reforms affecting Farm Service Agency (FSA) lending operations.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes a national direct loan origination data from the FSA of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) collected from 2004 to 2014. The analysis begins by identifying significant differences in cross-tabulations of loan terms among different racial and gender classes. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) regression techniques are then applied for a system of equations involving the three loan packaging components. The combined effects of the prescribed loan packaging terms are subsequently analyzed under a simulation-optimization framework.FindingsRegression results validate that indeed, relative to White American borrowers, certain minority borrowers are accommodated with lower loan amounts at higher interest rates and with shorter maturities. However, these decisions seem to be prompted by credit risk management considerations. The most compelling findings include the insignificance of all double minority labeling variables, except for the interest rate equation that even produced favorable results for Hispanic American females. Simulation-optimization results further reinforce that even when one or two unfavorable loan terms are included in the packaging, double minority borrowers end up with better profitability and liquidity positions.Practical implicationsThis study provides a different perspective in dealing with the controversial minority bias in lending by presenting evidence gathered from a government farm lending institution. The USDA-FSA has been sued in numerous occasions by minority borrowers. Since then, however, it has deliberately implemented institutional reforms to rectify previous errors. This study provides empirical evidence strengthening FSA's claim of its intention to improve its delivery of loan services, especially for its socially disadvantaged borrowers with double minority classification.Originality/valueThis study pioneers the analysis of the double minority labeling effect on farm lending decisions. Its contributions to literature are further enhanced by its goal to validate the effectiveness of FSA institutional reforms undertaken since the early 2000s in order to improve credit access of and delivery of credit services to minority farm borrowers, especially those that belong to more than one minority classification.

scholarly journals Use of Deviations of Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity to Clarify the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

2002 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 195-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mao-Wei Hung ◽  
Yin-Ching Jan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Asian Financial Crisis ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Interest Rate Parity ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Rate Parity

This study is an attempt to examine whether the deviations of purchasing power parity and uncover interest rate parity Granger-cause the 1997 Asian financial crisis by using vector autoregression and Granger causality tests. The results show that the purchasing power parity and uncover interest rate parity do not hold for most Asian markets. We find weak evidence to support that the deviations of purchasing power parity and uncover interest rate parity have the power to explicate the origin of the financial crisis.

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