scholarly journals Model of socio-economic factors in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across Russian regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 01021
Author(s):  
E.V. Sinitsyn ◽  
A.V. Tolmachev ◽  
V.M. Laptev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Model Equations ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Epidemiological Situation ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

The worldwide spread of a new infection SARS-CoV-2 makes relevant the analysis of the different factors that lead to the vulnerability of modern civilization to previously unknown diseases. In this regard, the development of mathematical models describing the evolution of epidemics like COVID-19 and the identification of socio-economic factors affecting the epidemiological situation in regions is an important research task. The paper proposes a probabilistic mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, which allows to analyze the evolution of the main characteristics of the disease and to assess main factors influencing them. The study is based on the official statistical data on the spread of the COVID 19 presented on coronavirus sites in the Russian Federation and other countries, the Yandex Data Lens dataset service, as well as the data from the Federal State Statistics Service. In the research some data mining methods were used for evaluation the model’s parameters. The model equations allow to predict the evolution of the disease and estimate the confidence interval of such prognosis. We estimated the ratio of detected and hidden cases of the disease, the distribution of the disease’s duration probability and its average value for different regions. It has been mathematically proven that the vaccination is the necessary and sufficient condition of achievement a stationary stable state - the cessation of a pandemic. The regions of Russian Federation were clustered by the course of the disease COVID-19 on the base of k-means method. The analysis of the most important socio-economic factors affecting the epidemiological situation was provided separately for each cluster.

scholarly journals Socio-economic factors in the spread of SARS-COV-2 across Russian regions

R-Economy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 129-145
Author(s):  
Evgeny V. Sinitsyn ◽  
◽  
Alexander V. Tolmachev ◽  
Alexander S. Ovchinnikov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Frequency Probability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemiological Situation ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Relevance. The worldwide spread of a new infection SARS-CoV-2 makes relevant the analysis of the socio-economic factors that make modern civilization vulnerable to previously unknown diseases. In this regard, the development of mathematical models describing the spread of pandemics like COVID-19 and the identification of socio-economic factors affecting the epidemiological situation in regions is an important research task. Research objective. This study seeks to develop a mathematical model describing the spread of COVID-19, thus enabling the analysis of the main characteristics of the spread of the disease and assessment of the impact of various socio-economic factors. Data and methods. The study relies on the official statistical data on the pandemic presented on coronavirus sites in Russia and other countries, Yandex DataLens dataset service, as well as data from the Federal State Statistics Service. The data were analyzed by using a correlation analysis of COVID-19 incidence parameters and socio-economic characteristics of regions; multivariate regression – to determine the parameters of the probabilistic mathematical model of the spread of the pandemic proposed by the authors; clustering – to group the regions with similar incidence characteristics and exclude the regions with abnormal parameters from the analysis. Results. A mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed. The parameters of this model are determined on the basis of official statistics on morbidity, in particular the frequency (probability) of infections, the reliability of the disease detection, the probability density of the disease duration, and its average value. Based on the specificity of COVID-19, Russia regions are clustered according to disease-related characteristics. For clusters that include regions with typical disease-related characteristics, a correlation analysis of the relationship between the number of cases and the rate of infection ( with the socio-economic characteristics of the region is carried out. The most significant factors associated with the parameters of the pandemic are identified. Conclusions. The proposed mathematical model of the pandemic and the established correlations between the parameters of the epidemiological situation and the socio-economic characteristics of the regions can be used to make informed decisions regarding the key risk factors and their impact on the course of the pandemic.

scholarly journals THE MAJOR CHALLENGES OF FINANCING EDUCATIONAL SERVICE FOR PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-109
Author(s):  
Vadim Shiryayev ◽  
Marga Zivitere
Keyword(s):  
Educational Policy ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Children With Disabilities ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Educational Services ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

The article examines the socio-economic factors that reveal the specifics of educational policy in relation to handicapped children and children with disabilities in the Russian Federation. The focus is on ensuring access to education for such children, insistently voiced their right to receive education in regular schools through inclusion. The problem of a sharp decline in the level of state guarantees for the population, the experience of social protection of people with disabilities, including in the field of education, changing the principles of teaching children with disabilities are brought up as an issue. The legal framework and analysis of the main aspects of financing educational services for children with disabilities in recent years are presented. The research is based on the analysis of program documents implemented in the Russian Federation in favor of disabled persons, data of statistical observation in the field of education and the situation of disabled children. The main objective of the study: to assess the situation in the field of accessibility of educational services for specified class. The research used data from official statistical reporting, as well as representative studies conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service. The new route of educational policy determines the relevance of the study of problems arising in the course of teaching children with disabilities, and leads to the need to take into account the socio-economic factors affecting the educational and adaptive trajectories of this category. This presupposes the consideration of scientific, methodological and applied issues, the development of criteria that will allow assessing the effectiveness of the measures, introduced and determined the directions for the development of the policy pursued. Also measures to provide financial guarantees for the implementation of inclusive education are proposed. Used a general scientific and statistical method, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, mental modeling.

scholarly journals Suicide trends and characteristics in Brazil

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-7
Author(s):  
Carolina de Mello-Santos ◽  
José Manoel Bertolote ◽  
Yuan-Pang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
World Health ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Populous Country ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Brazil is the largest and most populous country in South America (in 2002 the population was approximately 175 million). Although life expectancy in Brazil has increased, suicide and other forms of injury-related mortality, such as homicide and accident, have increased as a proportion of overall mortality (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, 1984; Brazil Ministry of Health, 2001). The suicide rate in Brazil (3.0–4.0 per 100 000 inhabitants) is not considered high in global terms (World Health Organization, 1999). Nevertheless, it has followed the world tendency towards growth: during 1980–2000, the suicide rate in Brazil increased by 21%. Elderly people present the highest suicide rates in absolute numbers, but the alarming finding in the Brazilian data is that the youth population is increasingly dying by suicide (Mello-Santos et al, 2005). This statistic partially confirms a forecast by Diekstra & Guilbinat (1993) that the number of deaths by suicide would dramatically increase over the next decades, mainly in developing countries, including Latin America. In these regions, socio-economic factors (such as an increase in divorce and unemployment and a decrease in religiosity) increase the risk of self-harm. We discuss the reasons for the low suicide rate in Brazil and highlight the socio-economic factors affecting its increase among the youth population in particular.

scholarly journals Demographic and socio-economic factors affecting birth preparation and complication readiness (BPCR) practices in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Sunil Kumar Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Status ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Complication Readiness ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistics Regression ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Government ◽  
Status Of Women ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

BPCR practices by women in Nepal are still low. Still a relatively high percentage of women do not make BPCR to its fullest extent. Researches in developing countries show that various demographic, social and economic factors influence the BPCR practices by pregnant women. This paper examines the likelihood of BPCR practices based on women’s demographic, social and economic status in Nepal. NDHS 2011 data set has been utilized by applying bivariate logistics regression analysis technique to examine the effects of these variables on BPCR practices in Nepal. The analysis result shows high variations and gaps in BPCR practice based on demographic, social and economic status of women. Against this finding the study recommends implementation of appropriate policy and program measures by the government and other agencies to address the existing variations and gaps in BPCR practices among subgroups of women in Nepal. Further research studies focusing on the existing barriers on BPCR practice need to be conducted in Nepal especially among the women who are disadvantaged and marginalized.

scholarly journals SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN PURCHASING A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF FOOD. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF POLISH MICRODATA

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Dudek
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Subjective Assessment ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Binary Choice ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Binary Choice Models ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

The paper analyses subjective aspects of food poverty in Poland. It deals with households’ assessment of financial difficulties in purchasing a sufficient amount of food in the period 2009–2015. The study is based on Social Diagnosis data. Its purpose is to identify the socio-economic factors affecting financial distress among Polish households. The study also aims to test whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. In econometric analysis binary choice models for panel data are applied. The findings state that apart from equivalent incomes and owned savings, loans or debts, factors having a significant impact on the final results are places of residence and biological types of households.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document