The Risk of Deep Venous Thrombosis in Surgical Patients Using Multivariate Analysis
The purpose of the present study was to develop a method of determining the patients who are at risk and require prophylaxis.In a prospective study of 535 patients various clinical factors believed to predispose to deep venous thrombosis have been studied using a linear logistic analysis. The patients had been screened with the 125I-fibrinogen test. A standard computer program was used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the coefficients for the various factors studied. The most important factor was age; premedication with omnopon, presence of varicose veins, infection, history of previous DVT, severity and type of operation were also significant.For any patient the logit y can be estimated and expressed as a percentage risk of thrombosis using the equation y = −6.00 + (Age × 0.0617) + (History of previous DVT × 1.38) + (V. veins × 1.26) + (Premedication with omnopon × 0.97) + (Infection × 0.84) -(Urological operation × 1.94) - (Thoracic operation × 1.15) derived from the significant factors and their coefficients. (The values of factors other than age are either 0 = absent, or 1 = present.)