Towards an Operational Flow Forecasting System for the Upper Niagara River

Abstract. This paper describes the design and use of a recursive ensemble Kalman filter (REnKF) to assimilate streamflow data in an operational flow forecasting system of seven catchments in New Zealand. The REnKF iteratively updates past and present model states (soil water, aquifer and surface storages), with lags up to the concentration time of the catchment, to improve model initial conditions and hence flow forecasts. We found the REnKF overcame instabilities in the standard EnKF, which were associated with the natural lag time between upstream catchment wetness and flow at the gauging locations. The forecast system performance was correspondingly improved in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe score, persistence index and bounding of the measured flow by the model ensemble. We present descriptions of filter design parameters and explanations and examples of filter behaviour, as an information source for other groups wishing to assimilate discharge observations for operational forecasting.

Download Full-text

Development and Operational Status of Wind Power Forecasting System

IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy ◽

10.1541/ieejpes.133.366 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 133 (4) ◽

pp. 366-372 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Isao Aoki ◽

Ryoichi Tanikawa ◽

Nobuyuki Hayasaki ◽

Mitsuhiro Matsumoto ◽

Shigero Enomoto

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Wind Power Forecasting ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Power Forecasting

Download Full-text

Implementasi Metode Winter untuk Forecasting Pertumbuhan Jumlah Penduduk: Studi Kasus Wilayah Provinsi NTB

Jurnal Pemikiran dan Penelitian Pendidikan Matematika (JP3M) ◽

10.36765/jp3m.v3i1.243 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 51-61

Author(s):

Syaharuddin ◽

Abdul Adhiim Rizky ◽

Lutfi Jauhari ◽

Siti Fatimah ◽

Wahyu Ningsih ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Optimal Parameter ◽

Series Data ◽

Percentage Error ◽

Average Error ◽

Ratio Data ◽

Female Data ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Conducting Research ◽

And Gender

This research aims to analyse the acceleration of population growth based on gender in West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB) using the Forecasting system by constructing the winter's method in the shape of the Multiple Forecasting System (G-MFS) based on Matlab by calculating the period indicator for accuracy to find time series data in the year 2020-2029. At the simulation stage, researchers used the population and gender ratio data in NTB Province in 2009-2019. The method used in conducting research is to use the winter's method. The evaluation of Forecasting results is done by calculating the average error value using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. From this study obtained the most optimal parameter value on male data namely ʌ, β and γ sequential values of 0.9, 0.5 and 0.9 while in female data, the value of ʌ, β and γ respectively, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.5. Then with the value of the parameter obtained MAPE value in male data of 1.7785% and in female data of 0.89034%.

Download Full-text

Air quality forecasting system based on chemical transport models

Hydrometeorological research and forecasting ◽

10.37162/2618-9631-2019-4-203-218 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. 203-218

Author(s):

I.N. Kusnetsova ◽

◽

I.U. Shalygina ◽

M.I. Nahaev ◽

U.V. Tkacheva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Chemical Transport ◽

Transport Models ◽

Chemical Transport Models ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Air Quality Forecasting

Download Full-text

Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

10.21236/ada491421 ◽

2003 ◽

Author(s):

Hans C. Graber ◽

Mark A. Donelan ◽

Michael G. Brown ◽

Donald N. Slinn ◽

Scott C. Hagen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Forecasting System

Download Full-text

Catastrophic Effects of Floods on Environment and Health: Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan Journal of Engineering Technology & Science ◽

10.22555/pjets.v5i2.903 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Falak Shad Memon ◽

M. Yousuf Sharjeel

Keyword(s):

Paradigm Shift ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Human Life ◽

National Level ◽

Operational Cost ◽

Site Assessment ◽

Environment And Health ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Frame Work ◽

Multiple Levels

Torrential rains and floods have been causing irreplaceable losses to both human lives and environment in Pakistan. This loss has reached to an extent of assively aggrieved situation to reinstate life at operationally viable position. This paper unfolds the notion that only constructive paradigm shift to overcome this phenomenon is vital as a strategy. Multiple levels of observations and on-site assessment of various calamity-prone venues were considered to probe into this scenario. Some of the grave site in Sindh and Punjab were observed and necessarily practicable measures were recommended to avoid loss to human health and environment. The paper finds that a consistent drastic management authority on national level with appropriate caliber and forecasting expertise can reduce the damage to human life and environment to great extent. Weather forecasting system need to be installed at many appropriately observed cities and towns in the country with adequate man power, funds and technical recourses. By implementing the proper frame work of prevention and mitigation of floods country can save the major costs cleanup and recovery. These measures are expected to reduce operational cost of state in terms of GDP and GNP to restore life and environment.

Download Full-text