Short-Term Drought Risk Dynamics: The Impact of Multi-Decadal Climate Variability and Water Supply System Properties

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Henley ◽  
Mark A. Thyer ◽  
George Kuczera ◽  
Stewart Franks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Dynamics ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
System Properties ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 232-249
Author(s):  
J. Rolf Olsen ◽  
Vikram M. Mehta ◽  
Harvey Hill
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inland Navigation ◽  
Rotational Crop ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary.

Meeting the challenge of climate variability in a major water supply system

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-207
Author(s):  
G.J. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Implementation Strategies ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
The Public ◽  
South West ◽  
Public Drinking Water ◽  
The Impact

A continuing period of climate variability affecting the south west of Western Australia has seen a 12% decrease in rainfall reduce streamflow to Perth's water supply dams by 50% during the last 27 years. A change in organisational arrangements and an evaluation of risk exposure were key triggers for the implementation of plans to restore the public drinking water supply reliability. The Water Corporation mobilised the support of customers and regulators during the recovery period. Poor and extremely low inflow events during the last five years required additional planning, regulator support and implementation strategies to minimise the impact on the Perth Community.

scholarly journals Looking for the Role of the Ocean in Tropical Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability*

2001 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 638-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Seager ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
Naomi Naik ◽  
Jennifer Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Decadal Climate

scholarly journals Potential Sources of Decadal Climate Variability over Southern Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8695-8709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushi Morioka ◽  
Francois Engelbrecht ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The South ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
Southwestern Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Potential sources of decadal climate variability over southern Africa are examined by conducting in-depth analysis of available datasets and coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiments. The observational data in recent decades show a bidecadal variability noticeable in the southern African rainfall with its positive phase of peak during 1999/2000. It is found that the rainfall variability is related to anomalous moisture advection from the southwestern Indian Ocean, where the anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) develops. The SLP anomaly is accompanied by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST). Both SLP and SST anomalies slowly propagate eastward from the South Atlantic to the southwestern Indian Ocean. The analysis of mixed layer temperature tendency reveals that the SST anomaly in the southwestern Indian Ocean is mainly due to eastward advection of the SST anomaly by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The eastward propagation of SLP and SST anomalies are also confirmed in the 270-yr outputs of the CGCM control experiment. However, in a sensitivity experiment where the SST anomalies in the South Atlantic are suppressed by the model climatology, the eastward propagation of the SLP anomaly from the South Atlantic disappears. These results suggest that the local air–sea coupling in the South Atlantic may be important for the eastward propagation of the SLP anomaly from the South Atlantic to the southwestern Indian Ocean. Although remote influences from the tropical Pacific and Antarctica were widely discussed, this study provides new evidence for the potential role of local air–sea coupling in the South Atlantic for the decadal climate variability over southern Africa.

Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability

2001 ◽  
Vol 18 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 219-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D'Arrigo ◽  
R. Villalba ◽  
G. Wiles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Decadal Climate

scholarly journals The Impact of North Atlantic–Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5668-5677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Semenov ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Noel S. Keenlyside ◽  
Alexander Strehz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Hemisphere Surface ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract The twentieth-century Northern Hemisphere surface climate exhibits a long-term warming trend largely caused by anthropogenic forcing, with natural decadal climate variability superimposed on it. This study addresses the possible origin and strength of internal decadal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the recent decades. The authors present results from a set of climate model simulations that suggest natural internal multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector could have considerably contributed to the Northern Hemisphere surface warming since 1980. Although covering only a few percent of the earth’s surface, the Arctic may have provided the largest share in this. It is hypothesized that a stronger meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic and the associated increase in northward heat transport enhanced the heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic region and especially in the North Atlantic portion of the Arctic because of anomalously strong sea ice melt. The model results stress the potential importance of natural internal multidecadal variability originating in the North Atlantic–Arctic sector in generating interdecadal climate changes, not only on a regional scale, but also possibly on a hemispheric and even a global scale.

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