Indicator assessment of the reliability of mine ventilation and degassing systems functioning

The gas emission control in the mines is operated by ventilation and degassing systems that ensure the aerological safety of the mines or minimize the aerological risks. The ventilation system of the mine and its individual sites includes a significant number of technical devices and equipment, and the air tubes are mainly mining workings, the condition of which determines the quality of the ventilation network (its capacity) and depends on a number of mining factors. Similarly, one of the most important elements of the degassing system, which includes its own chain of technological equipment, are wells, and in some cases, mining workings. Thus, mine ventilation and degassing systems cannot be attributed to purely technical systems, since they include mining elements characterized by high variability of the determining parameters. To assess their reliability, it is necessary to use various combined methods that include additional characteristics in relation to the mining component. At the same time, the reliability of technical devices that ensure the functioning of mine ventilation and degassing systems largely determines the efficiency (stability and reliability) of these systems and, consequently, affects the level of aerological risks. The described approach to assessing the reliability of ventilation and degassing systems of coal mines when analyzing aerological risks is based on the developed system of risk indicators for the methane factor and will allow determining the risk dynamics in automatic mode based on monitoring the parameters of the ventilation and degassing system state.

A database of pediatric drug effects to evaluate ontogenic mechanisms from child growth and development

Adverse drugs effects (ADEs) in children are common and may result in disability and death. However, current pediatric drug safety methods have not gone beyond event surveillance to identify and evaluate potential biological mechanisms. Children undergo an evolutionarily conserved and physiologically dynamic process of growth and maturation that can alter pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Our hypothesis is that temporal patterns of drug event reporting are reflective of dynamic mechanisms from child growth and development. We generated a database of 460,837 pediatric ADEs using generalized additive models (GAMs) that we have previously shown identify dynamic risk estimates of adverse drug events. We identified 19,438 significant drug-event risks where drug risks corresponded with physiological development throughout childhood. Our results identified known pediatric drug effects and risk dynamics across child development that were not known previously. For example, we identified significant risk dynamics of montelukast-induced psychiatric disorders, including enriched risk (Odds Ratio 8.77 [2.51, 46.94]) within the second year of life. We developed a data-driven time-series clustering approach resulting in up to 95.2% precision and 97.8% sensitivity for categorizing risk dynamics across development stages for all ADEs including known but previously development-agnostic pediatric drug effects. We found that our real-world evidence may contain biologically-relevant underpinnings as well, where risk dynamics of CYP enzyme substrates were dependent on the enzyme's expression across childhood. We curated this database for the research community to enable, for the first time, evaluation of real-world hypotheses of adverse drug effects across child growth and development.

Systemic risk in ASEAN-6: a new empirical investigation

PurposeThe authors provide a comprehensive study on systemic risk of the banking sectors in the ASEAN-6 countries. In particular, they investigate the systemic risk dynamics and determinants of 49 listed banks in the region over the 2000–2018 period.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the market-based SRISK measure of Brownlees and Engle (2017) to investigate the systemic risk of the ASEAN-6's banking sectors.FindingsThe authors find that the regional systemic risk fluctuates significantly and currently at par or higher level than that of the recent global financial crisis. Systemic risk is generally associated with banks that have bigger size, more traditional business models, lower quality in their loan portfolios, less profitable and with lower market-to-book values. However, these relationships vary significantly between ASEAN countries.Research limitations/implicationsThe research focuses on the systemic risk of ASEAN-6 countries. Therefore, the research results may lack generalizability to other countries.Practical implicationsThe authors’ empirical evidence advocates the use of capital surcharges on the systemically important financial institutions. Although the region has been pushing to higher financial integration in recent years, the authors encourage the regional regulators to account for the idiosyncratic characteristics of their banking sectors in designing effective macroprudential policy to contain systemic risk.Originality/valueThis paper provides the first study on the systemic risk of the ASEAN-6 region. The empirical evidence on the drivers of systemic risk would be of interest to the regional regulators.

Risk dynamics modelling of reservoir dam break for safety control in the emergency response process

Dam break is an accident that may heavily threat downstream residents' life and property safety, especially in China. As revealed by accident investigation statistics, both flawed organizational behavior and inadequate downstream resident risk awareness affected the safety risk of reservoir dam. The multiple information transferring mode and dynamic processes perform with the characteristics of social-technical system. Based on the system dynamics approach, this study proposed a risk causation model aiming for factor interactions involving organizational, human, and technical system levels. The derived simulation model represented the historical risk evolution process of Gouhou reservoir in China and the rationality of the proposed model was verified. To further improve the efficiency of the organizational response and monitor real-time dam safety, a software tool called Dam Emergency Response Aids (DERA) was constructed to evaluate the potential safety benefits of risk control measures, and to overcome the defects of static emergency plans. By integrating relevant professional modules and data, the mobile application (APP) has been applied on the Jinniu Mountain reservoir dam in Nanjing of China and helped to maintain its excellent safety operation until now. It shows the risk dynamics model proposed can improve the abilities of dam operating management organization for more effective responses under emergency circumstances.