Early warning of food security in East Java Indonesia using a system dynamics model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vina Vahlevi Al Juned ◽  
Iwan Vanany ◽  
Diesta Iva Maftuhah ◽  
Granita Hajar
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

A System Dynamics Model for Subsistence Farmers' Food Security Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedict Oyo ◽  
Billy Mathias Kalema
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Subsistence Farmers ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Sub Saharan

Food security at subsistence farmers' level in sub-Saharan Africa has become an issue of concern due to increasing vulnerability caused by a number of factors such as: changing climate, resource scarcity (e.g. land and inputs), environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil fertility, deforestation, and surface water eutrophication), market failures and weak public/donor support initiatives. In light of these challenges, farmers must be prepared to survive by self-provisioning. To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved food security, focus should be on resilience based initiatives at household and community levels. In this paper, the authors investigate the factors that have enabled subsistence farmers to succeed despite the previous shocks and stresses, and develop a system dynamics model for sustainable food security based on initiatives exclusive to the farmers. The model is used to examine the question: how can innovative subsistence farmers engage in better livelihood and market orientated production irrespective of external public or donor support?

System Dynamics Model to Support Rice Production and Distribution for Food Security

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erma Suryani ◽  
Rully Agus Hendrawan ◽  
Totok Mulyono ◽  
Lily Puspa Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Pilot Study ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improve Food Security

Food security is a national issue as the impact of food insecurity in several regions in Indonesia. The number of Indonesia's large population requires a full attention by the government to meet people's welfare, especially relating to food. A comprehensive study is therefore required to solve this problem. In this research, we utilized System Dynamics based on consideration that this framework offers the ability to incorporate expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model highly non-linear behavior. This pilot study seek developed a System Dynamics model to improve food security by considering regional condition changes to evaluate several policies for strategic decision making; and help government in improving food security through several policy scenarios development such as land intensification, land expansion, and distribution from other region (subdivre) which has surplus stock and import. This study could be considered as a pilot study to improve food security through some scenarios such as land intensification, land expansion, distribution from other regional district, and import. 

A System Dynamics Model for Subsistence Farmers' Food Security Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
pp. 293-308
Author(s):  
Benedict Oyo ◽  
Billy Mathias Kalema
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Subsistence Farmers ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Sub Saharan

Food security at subsistence farmers' level in sub-Saharan Africa has become an issue of concern due to increasing vulnerability caused by a number of factors such as: changing climate, resource scarcity (e.g. land and inputs), environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil fertility, deforestation, and surface water eutrophication), market failures and weak public/donor support initiatives. In light of these challenges, farmers must be prepared to survive by self-provisioning. To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved food security, focus should be on resilience based initiatives at household and community levels. In this paper, the authors investigate the factors that have enabled subsistence farmers to succeed despite the previous shocks and stresses, and develop a system dynamics model for sustainable food security based on initiatives exclusive to the farmers. The model is used to examine the question: how can innovative subsistence farmers engage in better livelihood and market orientated production irrespective of external public or donor support?

scholarly journals Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Arturo Orjuela Castro ◽  
Wilson Adarme Jaimes
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Third Party Logistics ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Deterioration Rate ◽  
Overall Performance

Purpose: Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC.Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon.Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs.Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods.Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security.Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security.Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

scholarly journals Development of Spatial-System Dynamics Model for Food Security Policy in Indonesia: A Generic Sub-Model Simulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-169
Author(s):  
Teten W Avianto ◽  
◽  
Utomo Sarjono Putro ◽  
Pri Hermawan ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Spatial System

scholarly journals A system dynamics approach to examining household food insecurity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Kyle Metta ◽  
Laura Olabisi ◽  
Renee Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Household Food Security ◽  
Structural Interventions ◽  
Healthy Foods ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Modeling Process ◽  
Household Food

Household food security is influenced by the socio-political environment, resource access, and experiential factors, but the systemic interactions of these drivers are rarely considered in the same study. In collaboration with stakeholders, we built a system dynamics model to examine the drivers of food insecurity in Detroit and how community-led interventions could promote food security. We found that single interventions were not as effective as multiple interventions in combination, due to the complex limits on a households’ ability to purchase healthy foods. The iterative modeling process allowed stakeholders to jointly understand and generate insights into the cross-scale limits that households must navigate in order to achieve food security. Furthermore, our modeling effort demonstrates how time is a fundamental resource stock that limits the efficacy of behavioral and structural interventions.

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