A System Dynamics Model for Subsistence Farmers' Food Security Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 17-30 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Benedict Oyo ◽

Billy Mathias Kalema

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Resource Scarcity ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Market Failures ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

Subsistence Farmers ◽

Donor Support ◽

Sub Saharan

Food security at subsistence farmers' level in sub-Saharan Africa has become an issue of concern due to increasing vulnerability caused by a number of factors such as: changing climate, resource scarcity (e.g. land and inputs), environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil fertility, deforestation, and surface water eutrophication), market failures and weak public/donor support initiatives. In light of these challenges, farmers must be prepared to survive by self-provisioning. To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved food security, focus should be on resilience based initiatives at household and community levels. In this paper, the authors investigate the factors that have enabled subsistence farmers to succeed despite the previous shocks and stresses, and develop a system dynamics model for sustainable food security based on initiatives exclusive to the farmers. The model is used to examine the question: how can innovative subsistence farmers engage in better livelihood and market orientated production irrespective of external public or donor support?

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Re-Conceptualizing Smallholders' Food Security Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

Advances in System Dynamics and Control - Advances in Systems Analysis, Software Engineering, and High Performance Computing ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-4077-9.ch018 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 568-586

Author(s):

Benedict Oyo ◽

Billy Mathias Kalema ◽

Isdore Paterson Guma

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Resource Scarcity ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Future Research ◽

External Shocks ◽

Market Failures ◽

Donor Support ◽

Dynamics Modelling ◽

Sub Saharan

Smallholder African systems operate in harsh environments of climate changes, resource scarcity, environmental degradation, market failures, and weak public and/or donor support. The smallholders must therefore be prepared to survive by self-provisioning. This chapter examines the nature of vulnerability of smallholders' food security caused by above conditions in the context of system dynamics modelling. The results show that smallholders co-exist whereby the non-resilient households offer labor to the resilient households for survival during turbulent seasons irrespective of the magnitude of external shocks and stressors. In addition, non-resilient households cannot be liberated by external handouts but rather through building their capacity for self-reliance. Using simulation evidence, this chapter supports the claim that in the next decade only resilient households will endure the extreme situations highlighted above. Future research that employs similar systems-based methods are encouraged to explore how long-term food security among smallholders can be sustained.

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An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11143995 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (14) ◽

pp. 3995 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Roberto Pasqualino ◽

Irene Monasterolo ◽

Aled Jones

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Population Growth ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Systemic Risk ◽

Land Development ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

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Early warning of food security in East Java Indonesia using a system dynamics model

10.1063/5.0000860 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Vina Vahlevi Al Juned ◽

Iwan Vanany ◽

Diesta Iva Maftuhah ◽

Granita Hajar

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Early Warning ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model

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Food Security: Sustainable Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

Outlook on Agriculture ◽

10.5367/000000002101294029 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 177-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Uche C. Amalu

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Structural Adjustment ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Mineral Resources ◽

Well Being ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Sustainable Food ◽

Virgin Land ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

Food Imports

Falling world grain stocks, rising grain prices and the poor economic situation of Africa have, since 1995, made food security a major issue. Structural adjustment programmes, the crushing burden of debt, the collapse of commodity prices and mismanagement of national economies have rendered African people even poorer in terms of per capita income and quality of life than they were in the first decade after the attainment of independence. Yet Africa is rich in many ways — for example, in virgin land for agriculture and in mineral resources, including energy. It is rich above all in its people and their determined spirit to face all disasters, natural and man-made. In line with this spirit, Africa is moving ahead on a new consensus that food security through enhanced agricultural production is the continent's most fundamental development issue. Although the economic plans of successive African governments have stressed the goal of food self-sufficiency, the food sector has received little investment or political priority. Africa continues to rely on food aid and food imports, which consume a large part of its meagre export earnings. The increasingly limited capacity to purchase food abroad and the bitter experience of depending on emergency aid are honing a clear determination that Africa must marshal the resources to grow its own food and so release the creative energies of its people to contribute fully to their own development and well-being. Top priority should be given to food security during this process, as no country can consider itself free until it has the wherewithal to provide for the basic needs of its people.

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Orange-fleshed sweetpotato: Strategies and lessons learned for achieving food security and health at scale in Sub-Saharan Africa

Open Agriculture ◽

10.1515/opag-2021-0034 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 511-536

Author(s):

Amy Webb Girard ◽

Anthony Brouwer ◽

Emily Faerber ◽

Frederick K. Grant ◽

Jan W. Low

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Beta Carotene ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Health Concern ◽

Or Education ◽

Sustainable Food ◽

Implementation Challenges ◽

Significant Public Health ◽

Sub Saharan

Abstract Against a worsening backdrop of climate stress and population growth, drought-resistant, highly adaptable, nutritious orange-fleshed sweetpotato (OFSP) stands out as a sustainable food crop that supports household resiliency, food security, and health. Recognized as one of the cheapest sources of vitamin A (VA), OFSP holds promise as a food-based approach to combat VA deficiency, a significant public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Because the dominant white-fleshed varieties have no beta-carotene, research initiated in the mid-1990s set out to adapt, develop, and promote VA-rich OFSP as a more nutritious alternative to non-OFSP types. Multisectorial strategies that integrate agriculture with health or education sectors hold promise as effective strategies to ensure OFSP reaches and meets the needs of those populations at greatest risk of VA deficiency – pregnant and lactating women, infants, and children. In this article, we share experiences, findings, implementation challenges, and lessons learned from four integrated programs in Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Ethiopia that aimed to improve the nutrition and health of women and children with production and promotion of OFSP. Across these projects, households significantly increased OFSP production. In all but one, changes in OFSP production were accompanied by improved food security and maternal and child diets.

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Research on Early Warning of Food Security Using a System Dynamics Model: Evidence from Jiangsu Province in China

Journal of Food Science ◽

10.1111/1750-3841.12649 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 80 (1) ◽

pp. R1-R9 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jianling Xu ◽

Yi Ding

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Early Warning ◽

Jiangsu Province ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

Model Evidence

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System Dynamics Model to Support Rice Production and Distribution for Food Security

Jurnal Teknologi ◽

10.11113/jt.v68.2928 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 68 (3) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Erma Suryani ◽

Rully Agus Hendrawan ◽

Totok Mulyono ◽

Lily Puspa Dewi

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Pilot Study ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Expert Knowledge ◽

Large Population ◽

Strategic Decision ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

The Impact ◽

Improve Food Security

Food security is a national issue as the impact of food insecurity in several regions in Indonesia. The number of Indonesia's large population requires a full attention by the government to meet people's welfare, especially relating to food. A comprehensive study is therefore required to solve this problem. In this research, we utilized System Dynamics based on consideration that this framework offers the ability to incorporate expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model highly non-linear behavior. This pilot study seek developed a System Dynamics model to improve food security by considering regional condition changes to evaluate several policies for strategic decision making; and help government in improving food security through several policy scenarios development such as land intensification, land expansion, and distribution from other region (subdivre) which has surplus stock and import. This study could be considered as a pilot study to improve food security through some scenarios such as land intensification, land expansion, distribution from other regional district, and import.

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Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management ◽

10.3926/jiem.2147 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 687 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Javier Arturo Orjuela Castro ◽

Wilson Adarme Jaimes

Keyword(s):

Supply Chain ◽

Food Security ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Supply Chains ◽

Third Party ◽

Third Party Logistics ◽

System Dynamics Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

Deterioration Rate ◽

Overall Performance

Purpose: Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC.Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon.Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs.Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods.Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security.Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security.Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

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