System Dynamics Model to Support Rice Production and Distribution for Food Security

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erma Suryani ◽  
Rully Agus Hendrawan ◽  
Totok Mulyono ◽  
Lily Puspa Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Pilot Study ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improve Food Security

Food security is a national issue as the impact of food insecurity in several regions in Indonesia. The number of Indonesia's large population requires a full attention by the government to meet people's welfare, especially relating to food. A comprehensive study is therefore required to solve this problem. In this research, we utilized System Dynamics based on consideration that this framework offers the ability to incorporate expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model highly non-linear behavior. This pilot study seek developed a System Dynamics model to improve food security by considering regional condition changes to evaluate several policies for strategic decision making; and help government in improving food security through several policy scenarios development such as land intensification, land expansion, and distribution from other region (subdivre) which has surplus stock and import. This study could be considered as a pilot study to improve food security through some scenarios such as land intensification, land expansion, distribution from other regional district, and import. 

scholarly journals An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Pasqualino ◽  
Irene Monasterolo ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Online Stores’ Sales: Positive and Negative E-WOM and Promotion Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 6045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Yan ◽  
Simin Zhou ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Ye Li
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Data ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Interaction Diagram ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we build a causal interaction diagram between the factors that may influence the sales and profits of online stores. An online store’s real operation data were used to help determine the causal relationship between variables. Finally, we proposed a system dynamics model and conducted a simulation of the operation of an online store. In this model, we focused on the impact of promotion and positive/negative electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) on the sales and profits of the online stores. The simulation results showed a similar trend to the real data and the main research finding showed that promotion is not a long-term measure for the sustainable development of online stores. Excessive promotion effort may lead to consumers’ dissatisfaction leading the increase of negative e-WOM. The systematic simulation can help us understand better the long-term effect of promotion and e-WOM on the operation of online stores. Finally, we gave some management suggestions for online stores’ sustainable operations.

Early warning of food security in East Java Indonesia using a system dynamics model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vina Vahlevi Al Juned ◽  
Iwan Vanany ◽  
Diesta Iva Maftuhah ◽  
Granita Hajar
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Port Production and Operation Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Shanghai Port in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zili Tai ◽  
Ji Guo ◽  
Yeli Guan ◽  
Qingquan Shi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Logistics Network ◽  
Cargo Transport ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Production And Operation

Since the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected port production and operation. There is little research on the systematic impact assessment. This study took Shanghai Port as an example and evaluated the impact under different scenarios through establishing a System Dynamics model. It is found that the epidemic mainly has a greater impact on passenger transport, but less on cargo transport. The ports with the function of transportation in highway, railway, and waterway were the key nodes in the international logistics network. More attention should be paid to the impact assessment of COVID-19 on ports’ production and operation. It is necessary to strengthen the port’s collection and distribution capabilities, improve port production efficiency, and further strengthen port modernization. This research method proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the impact assessment of similar events, and the empirical results can provide a reference for handling the epidemic shock for the port and shipping departments.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model of Employees’ Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6511
Author(s):  
Mudhafar Alefari ◽  
Mohammed Almanei ◽  
Konstantinos Salonitis
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Flow Diagrams ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

Employee performance is dynamic and can have great impact on the overall performance of any company and its sustainability. A number of factors that can be controlled by the company can affect the employees’ performance. The present paper starts with a thorough literature review for identifying these key driving in order to develop a system dynamics models that will be able to assess different improvement scenarios and initiatives. Based on causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams are developed and solved using system dynamics theory. The model developed can be used for organizations to assess the impact of different improvement initiatives.

Study on Urban Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 587-589 ◽  
pp. 171-175
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Li ◽  
Han Ming Duan ◽  
Min Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Urban Sustainable Development ◽  
The Status ◽  
City System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

A system dynamics model of urban sustainable development is provided, and the impact of different development modes on the city system is explored. Statistical data of Yinchuan, a city in northwest China, is utilized to build the model which shows the population-economy- environment relationship. Four development modes are proposed, and they are maintaining the status quo, developing secondary industry, developing tertiary industry, developing economy and society together. The system dynamics model is employed to analyze the interaction between population, economy and environment. According to simulation of the system dynamics model, impact of development modes on the city system is predicted. Furthermore, suggestions on improving the sustainability of urban development are put forward. In a word, the paper presents a new idea for the study on urban sustainable development in northwest China.

scholarly journals The Impact of Price Subsidy on Rice Self-Sufficiency Level in Malaysia: A System Dynamics Approach

2018 ◽  
pp. 801-806
Author(s):  
Farah Hanim Abdul Rahim ◽  
Nurul Nazihahhawari ◽  
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Local Production ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Price Subsidy ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia’s rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia to meet the growing demand of rice. This paper focus on analyzing the impact of price subsidy on the rice production system in Malaysia using a system dynamics modelling approach. Scenario analysis was conducted using the developed system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy and observe the impact of the changes on the rice production and rice SSL. The developed system dynamics model offers better understanding of the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. Based on the scenario analysis, the result shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand as the rice price drops. Accordingly, the local production increases by 15%. However, the SSL slightly decreases as the local production is insufficient to meet the large demand.

scholarly journals Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in Japan: Preliminary Results from a System Dynamics Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuro Uehara
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
The Government

This study developed a system dynamics model to understand the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan. The model is built on the generic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) framework adopted by Ghaffarzadegan and Rahmandad (2020) to build a system dynamics model for the spread of COVID-19 in Iran. Japan seems to be successful in containing the spread compared with other countries, and its first peak has passed. However, because this also leaves a large population still susceptible to the virus, it could cause a second and potentially higher peak of infection after the state of emergency aimed at reducing contact rate is lifted. As the government has proposed the “New Lifestyle,” it is critical to behave cautiously so as not to be infected. While the model focuses on the SEIR structure, the reflection of other sub-structures such as economy and hospital capacity that have tradeoffs with reducing contact rate should be beneficial. However, before extending the model, it is also critical to conduct estimates using confidence intervals rather than point estimates to better reflect uncertainties.

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