Immigrant Fertility Trends and Population Growth in Leeds

1974 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 509-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
J R King
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future

A simple population-projection model is presented which is used to predict the future numbers of Commonwealth immigrants in Leeds CB. The assumptions concerning survival and immigration used in the model are stated fully. The rates of fertility of immigrant groups in Leeds are investigated along with the trends in these rates in the historical period. These trends are used to calculate future fertility rates for the immigrant groups in Leeds CB. The results of the projection model are presented for each census date up to 1986 and conclusions are drawn from this information.

Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hongyan Qiu ◽  
Qun Zhang ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Lihong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Income ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dalian City ◽  
Ideal Number

Abstract In October 2015, the Chinese Government announced that the one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. China’s universal two-child policy is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in an urban city is restricted to having just one child. This cross-sectional study was conducted to explore future fertility intentions and factors influencing individual reproductive behaviour (whether to have two children) in Dalian City. A total of 1370 respondents were interviewed. The respondents’ mean ideal number of children was only 1.73, and urban respondents’ sex preference was symmetrical. A total of 19.0% of the respondents were unmarried, 64.5% were married and had childbearing experience and only 6.3% of married respondents had two children. Among the 1370 participants, 30.4% stated that they would have a second child, while 69.6% refused to have a second child in the future. Binary logistic regression analysis (Model 1) showed that the following characteristics were associated with having only one child in the future: being female, being older, having a lower education level, being born in Dalian, having a lower family income and reporting one child as the ideal number of children. Model 2 (comprising only respondents with childbearing experience) showed that respondents who were female, had a lower family income and were unable to obtain additional financial support from parents were more likely to intend to stick at one child. In addition, respondents’ ideal number of children and childbearing experiences had a significant influence on future fertility intentions. These results suggest that fertility intentions and reproductive behaviours are still below those needed for replacement level fertility in Dalian City. China’s policymakers should pay more attention to these factors (socioeconomic characteristics, economic factors, desired number of children and childbearing experiences) and try to increase individual reproductive behaviour.

Impact of aerosols on the future Euro-Mediterranean climate: results from the CORDEX FPS-Aerosol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Shuping Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future

<p>The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to numerous and various aerosol loads, which interact with radiation, clouds and atmospheric dynamics, with ensuing impact on regional climate. However up to now, aerosol variations are hardly taken into account in most regional climate simulations, although anthropogenic emissions have been dramatically reduced in Europe since the 1980s. Moreover, inconsistencies between regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving global model (GCM) have recently been identified in terms of future radiation and temperature evolution, which could be related to the differences in aerosol forcing. <br>The present study aims at assessing the role of aerosols in the future evolution of the Euro-Mediterranean climate, using a specific multi-model protocol carried out in the Flagship Pilot Study "Aerosol" of the CORDEX program. This protocol relies on three simulations for each RCM: a historical run (1971-2000) and two future RCP8.5 simulations (2021-2050), a first one with evolving aerosols, and a second one with the same aerosols as in the historical period. Six modeling groups have taken part in this protocol, providing nine triplets of simulations. The analysis of these simulations will be presented here. First results show that the future evolution of aerosols has a significant impact on the evolution of surface radiation and surface temperature. In addition RCM runs taking into account the evolution of aerosols are simulating climate change signal closer to the one of their driving GCM than those with constant aerosols.</p>

Recapitulation and a Look Ahead

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garrett Hardin
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Laws Of Nature ◽  
The United States ◽  
Francis Bacon ◽  
The Public ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Growth Limits

The cosmopolitan approach is required for some worldwide problems, such as ozone depletion, acid rain, and the exhaustion of oceanic fisheries. By contrast, potholes and population call for a parochial orientation. But if local "laissez-faire" in population matters is interpreted to mean no borders, a suicidal commons results. To survive, rich nations must refuse immigration to people who are poor because their governments are unable or unwilling to stop population growth. With its borders secured, how is a nation to control its own population growth? In one sense population control is inevitable; in another problematical. If the citizens of a nation pay absolutely no attention to their numbers, population will eventually be controlled by "nature"—by disease, starvation, and the social disorders that follow from too many people fighting for limited resources. But when wellwishers call for "population control" they mean something gentler than nature's ultimate response. Can we now predict what form successful human measures will take? I don't think we can, because the question demands that we successfully predict human history. Who, in the year 1700, could have predicted the Constitution of the United States? Who, in 1900, could have predicted Chernobyl? What happens in history is the result of the interaction of (first) the dependable "Laws of Nature" with (second) the apparent capriciousness of human nature. As concerns the first component, Francis Bacon should be our guide: "Nature to be commanded must be obeyed." Coming to the second factor we turn to the inventor of the holograph, the Nobelist Dennis Gabor: "The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented." Ignorance of this insight leads the public to take too seriously the projections of demographers (who rightly insist that they cannot predict the future). Demographers merely project curves—present trends—into the unknown future, all the while knowing—as Rene Dubos said-—that trend is not destiny. This book has been one long dissertation on the laws of nature that must be obeyed, namely: the properties of exponential growth; limits generally; the properties of usury; the significance of human unreliability; and the consequences of reproductive competition (including natural selection). But within these limitations lie many possibilities of population control. Some controls are kinder than others.

Population, Environment, and Women’s Issues

2002 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
World Population ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
The World

Ultimately, the necessity to supply food, energy, habitat, infrastructure, and consumer goods for the ever-growing population is responsible for the demise of the environment. Remedial actions for pollution abatement, and further technological progress toward energy efficiency, development of new crops, and improvements in manufacturing processes may help to mitigate the severity of environmental deterioration. However, we can hardly hope for restoration of a clean environment, improvement in human health, and an end to poverty without arresting the continuous growth of the world population. According to the United Nations count, world population reached 6 billion in mid October 1999 (1). The rate of population growth and the fertility rates by continent, as well as in the United States and Canada, are presented in Table 14.1. It can be seen that the fastest population growth occurs in the poorest countries of the world. Despite the worldwide decrease in fertility rates between 1975–80 period and that of 1995–2000, the rate of population growth in most developing countries changed only slightly due to the demographic momentum, which means that because of the high fertility rates in the previous decades, the number of women of childbearing age had increased. Historically, the preference for large families in the developing nations was in part a result of either cultural or religious traditions. In some cases there were practical motivations, as children provided helping hands with farm chores and a security in old age. At present the situation is changing. A great majority of governments of the developing countries have recognized that no improvement of the living standard of their citizens will ever be possible without slowing the explosive population growth. By 1985, a total of 70 developing nations had either established national family planning programs, or provided support for such programs conducted by nongovernmental agencies; now only four of the world’s 170 countries limit access to family planning services. As result, 95% of the developing world population lives in countries supporting family planning. Consequently, the percentage of married couples using contraceptives increased from less than 10% in 1960 to 57% in 1997.

Decomposition of Future Moisture Flux Changes over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Global and Regional Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 7037-7053
Author(s):  
Hongwen Zhang ◽  
Yanhong Gao ◽  
Jianwei Xu ◽  
Yu Xu ◽  
Yingsha Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Future

Abstract To meet the requirement of high-resolution datasets for many applications, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (the WRF Model) driven by a global climate model (CCSM4) has been adopted. This study focuses on projections of future moisture flux changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). First, the downscaling results for the historical period (1980–2005) are evaluated for precipitation P, evaporation E, and precipitation minus evaporation P − E against Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The mechanism of P − E changes is analyzed by decomposition into dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components. Whether the historical period changes and mechanisms continue into the future (2010–2100) is investigated using the WRF and CCSM model projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared with coarse-resolution forcing, downscaling was found to better reproduce the historical spatial patterns and seasonal mean of annual average P, E, and P − E over the TP. WRF projects a diverse spatial variation of P − E changes, with an increase in the northern TP and a decrease in the southern TP, compared with the uniform increase in CCSM. The dynamic component dominates P − E changes for the historical period in both the CCSM and WRF projections. In the future, however, the thermodynamic component in CCSM dominates P − E changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the near-term (2010–39) to the long-term (2070–99) future. Unlike the CCSM projections, the WRF projections reproduce the mechanism seen in the historical period—that is, the dynamic component dominates P − E changes. Furthermore, future P − E changes in the dynamical downscaling are less sensitive to warming than its coarse-resolution forcing.

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