AbstractInherited genetic variation contributes to individual risk for many complex diseases and is increasingly being used for predictive patient stratification. Recent work has shown that genetic factors are not equally relevant to human traits across age and other contexts, though the reasons for such variation are not clear. Here, we introduce methods to infer the form of the relationship between genetic risk for disease and age and to test whether all genetic risk factors behave similarly. We use a proportional hazards model within an interval-based censoring methodology to estimate age-varying individual variant contributions to genetic risk for 24 common diseases within the British ancestry subset of UK Biobank, applying a Bayesian clustering approach to group variants by their risk profile over age and permutation tests for age dependency and multiplicity of profiles. We find evidence for age-varying risk profiles in nine diseases, including hypertension, skin cancer, atherosclerotic heart disease, hypothyroidism and calculus of gallbladder, several of which show evidence, albeit weak, for multiple distinct profiles of genetic risk. The predominant pattern shows genetic risk factors having the greatest impact on risk of early disease, with a monotonic decrease over time, at least for the majority of variants although the magnitude and form of the decrease varies among diseases. We show that these patterns cannot be explained by a simple model involving the presence of unobserved covariates such as environmental factors. We discuss possible models that can explain our observations and the implications for genetic risk prediction.Author summaryThe genes we inherit from our parents influence our risk for almost all diseases, from cancer to severe infections. With the explosion of genomic technologies, we are now able to use an individual’s genome to make useful predictions about future disease risk. However, recent work has shown that the predictive value of genetic information varies by context, including age, sex and ethnicity. In this paper we introduce, validate and apply new statistical methods for investigating the relationship between age and genetic risk. These methods allow us to ask questions such as whether risk is constant over time, precisely how risk changes over time and whether all genetic risk factors have similar age profiles. By applying the methods to data from the UK Biobank, a prospective study of 500,000 people, we show that there is a tendency for genetic risk to decline with increasing age. We consider a series of possible explanations for the observation and conclude that there must be processes acting that we are currently unaware of, such as distinct phases of life in which genetic risk manifests itself, or interactions between genes and the environment.
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