Human-related ignitions concurrent with high winds promote large wildfires across the USA

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 377 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Jennifer K. Balch ◽  
Bethany A. Bradley ◽  
Crystal A. Kolden
Keyword(s):  
Vapour Pressure ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
High Winds

Large wildfires (>40 ha) account for the majority of burned area across the contiguous United States (US) and appropriate substantial suppression resources. A variety of environmental and social factors influence wildfire growth and whether a fire overcomes initial attack efforts and becomes a large wildfire. However, little is known about how these factors differ between lightning-caused and human-caused wildfires. This study examines differences in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fuel moisture and wind speed for large and small lightning- and human-caused wildfires during the initial days of fire activity at ecoregion scales across the US. Large fires of both human and lightning origin occurred coincident with above-normal temperature and vapour pressure deficit and below-normal 100-hour dead fuel moisture compared with small fires. Large human-caused wildfires occurred, on average, coincident with higher wind speeds than small human-caused wildfires and large lightning-caused wildfires. These results suggest the importance of winds in driving rapid fire growth that can allow fires to overcome many of the factors that typically inhibit large human-caused fires. Additionally, such findings highlight the interplay between human activity and meteorological conditions and the importance of incorporating winds in modelling large-fire risk in human-dominated landscapes.

Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures

2008 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Liang ◽  
Dave E. Calkin ◽  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
Tyron J. Venn ◽  
Robin P. Silverstein
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Private Land ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Parsimonious Model

There is an urgent and immediate need to address the excessive cost of large fires. Here, we studied large wildland fire suppression expenditures by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Among 16 potential non-managerial factors, which represented fire size and shape, private properties, public land attributes, forest and fuel conditions, and geographic settings, we found only fire size and private land had a strong effect on suppression expenditures. When both were accounted for, all the other variables had no significant effect. A parsimonious model to predict suppression expenditures was suggested, in which fire size and private land explained 58% of variation in expenditures. Other things being equal, suppression expenditures monotonically increased with fire size. For the average fire size, expenditures first increased with the percentage of private land within burned area, but as the percentage exceeded 20%, expenditures slowly declined until they stabilised when private land reached 50% of burned area. The results suggested that efforts to contain federal suppression expenditures need to focus on the highly complex, politically sensitive topic of wildfires on private land.

Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
Isabel González ◽  
Felipe Verdú ◽  
Inmaculada Aguado ◽  
Marta Yebra
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

The present paper presents and discusses the relationships between live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) measurements and fire occurrence (number of fires and burned area) in a Mediterranean area of central Spain. Grasslands and four shrub species (Cistus ladanifer L., Rosmarinus officinalis L., Erica australis L. and Phillyrea angustifolia L.) were sampled in the field from the spring to the summer season over a 9-year period. Higher seasonal FMC variability was found for the herbaceous species than for shrubs, as grasslands have very low values in summertime. Moisture variations of grasslands were found to be good predictors of number of fires and total burned surface, while moisture variation of two shrubs (C. ladanifer L. and R. officinalis L.) was more sensitive to both the total burned area and the occurrence of large fires. All these species showed significant differences between the FMC of high and low occurrence periods. Three different logistic regression models were built for the 202 periods of analysis: one to predict periods with more and less than seven fires, another to predict periods with and without large fires (>500 ha), and the third to predict periods with more and less than 200 ha burned. The results showed accuracy in predicting periods with a high number of fires (94%), and extensive burned area (85%), with less accuracy in estimating periods with large fires (58%). Finally, empirical functions based on logistic regression analysis were successfully related to fire ignition or potential burned area from FMC data. These models should be useful to integrate FMC measurements with other variables of fire danger (ignition causes, for instance), to provide a more comprehensive assessment of fire danger conditions.

Corrigendum to: Factors influencing large wildland fire suppression expenditures

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Liang ◽  
Dave E. Calkin ◽  
Krista M. Gebert ◽  
Tyron J. Venn ◽  
Robin P. Silverstein
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Private Land ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Parsimonious Model

There is an urgent and immediate need to address the excessive cost of large fires. Here, we studied large wildland fire suppression expenditures by the US Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Among 16 potential non-managerial factors, which represented fire size and shape, private properties, public land attributes, forest and fuel conditions, and geographic settings, we found only fire size and private land had a strong effect on suppression expenditures. When both were accounted for, all the other variables had no significant effect. A parsimonious model to predict suppression expenditures was suggested, in which fire size and private land explained 58% of variation in expenditures. Other things being equal, suppression expenditures monotonically increased with fire size. For the average fire size, expenditures first increased with the percentage of private land within burned area, but as the percentage exceeded 20%, expenditures slowly declined until they stabilised when private land reached 50% of burned area. The results suggested that efforts to contain federal suppression expenditures need to focus on the highly complex, politically sensitive topic of wildfires on private land.

scholarly journals Machine learning to predict final fire size at the time of ignition

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane R. Coffield ◽  
Casey A. Graff ◽  
Yang Chen ◽  
Padhraic Smyth ◽  
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Ignition Point ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Insight Into

Fires in boreal forests of Alaska are changing, threatening human health and ecosystems. Given expected increases in fire activity with climate warming, insight into the controls on fire size from the time of ignition is necessary. Such insight may be increasingly useful for fire management, especially in cases where many ignitions occur in a short time period. Here we investigated the controls and predictability of final fire size at the time of ignition. Using decision trees, we show that ignitions can be classified as leading to small, medium or large fires with 50.4±5.2% accuracy. This was accomplished using two variables: vapour pressure deficit and the fraction of spruce cover near the ignition point. The model predicted that 40% of ignitions would lead to large fires, and those ultimately accounted for 75% of the total burned area. Other machine learning classification algorithms, including random forests and multi-layer perceptrons, were tested but did not outperform the simpler decision tree model. Applying the model to areas with intensive human management resulted in overprediction of large fires, as expected. This type of simple classification system could offer insight into optimal resource allocation, helping to maintain a historical fire regime and protect Alaskan ecosystems.

scholarly journals Predicting dead fine fuel moisture at regional scales using vapour pressure deficit from MODIS and gridded weather data

2016 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 100-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael H. Nolan ◽  
Víctor Resco de Dios ◽  
Matthias M. Boer ◽  
Gabriele Caccamo ◽  
Michael L. Goulden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vapour Pressure ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Fuel Moisture

Measurement Invariance of a Universal Behavioral Screener Across Samples From the USA and Germany

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gino Casale ◽  
Robert J. Volpe ◽  
Brian Daniels ◽  
Thomas Hennemann ◽  
Amy M. Briesch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Invariance ◽  
Student Behavior ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Cross Cultural Comparison ◽  
School Based ◽  
Cultural Research ◽  
Universal Screener ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa

Abstract. The current study examines the item and scalar equivalence of an abbreviated school-based universal screener that was cross-culturally translated and adapted from English into German. The instrument was designed to assess student behavior problems that impact classroom learning. Participants were 1,346 K-6 grade students from the US (n = 390, Mage = 9.23, 38.5% female) and Germany (n = 956, Mage = 8.04, 40.1% female). Measurement invariance was tested by multigroup confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) across students from the US and Germany. Results support full scalar invariance between students from the US and Germany (df = 266, χ2 = 790.141, Δχ2 = 6.9, p < .001, CFI = 0.976, ΔCFI = 0.000, RMSEA = 0.052, ΔRMSEA = −0.003) indicating that the factor structure, the factor loadings, and the item thresholds are comparable across samples. This finding implies that a full cross-cultural comparison including latent factor means and structural coefficients between the US and the German version of the abbreviated screener is possible. Therefore, the tool can be used in German schools as well as for cross-cultural research purposes between the US and Germany.

Sanctions of the USA and the Policy of Bank of Russia:double Blow to the National Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 13-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Glazyev
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Practical Advice ◽  
The Us ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Simultaneous Adoption ◽  
The Eu

This article examines fundamental questions of monetary policy in the context of challenges to the national security of Russia in connection with the imposition of economic sanctions by the US and the EU. It is proved that the policy of the Russian monetary authorities, particularly the Central Bank, artificially limiting the money supply in the domestic market and pandering to the export of capital, compounds the effects of economic sanctions and plunges the economy into depression. The article presents practical advice on the transition from external to domestic sources of long-term credit with the simultaneous adoption of measures to prevent capital flight.

Possibility of Using in Russia the Experience of LED Lighting Application at the USA Airfields

2019 ◽  
pp. 71-77
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Vorozhikhin ◽  
Eugenia L. Moreva ◽  
Vladimir G. Starovoytov ◽  
Igor G. Tyutyunnik
Keyword(s):  
Air Transportation ◽  
Improve Quality ◽  
Led Lighting ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Quality And Reliability ◽  
Lighting Application

The purpose of this paper is an investigation of LEDs illumination experience at US-based aerodromes with an assessment of its feasibility and its necessity in Russia. The following methods were used: the analysis of aerodrome lighting requirements; the review and the analysis of development features in aerodrome LEDs illumination; the experience analysis of LEDs illumination of US-based aerodromes; the deductive analysis and the assessment synthesis of feasibility and necessity of US experience in LEDs illumination at Russian-based aerodromes. The following results were achieved: – The analysis of issues and opportunities was conducted for development of LEDs illumination at US-based aerodromes and of American experts’ recommendations for its use; – The cases were taken for use and assessment of development in LEDs illumination at US-based aerodromes; – The review and the analysis were conducted in relation to a developing market of LEDs illumination at Russian-based aerodromes. The main conclusion is that the US experience will improve quality and reliability of service provided in air transportation, comfort, and safety of Russian flights, as well as competitiveness of Russian- based airports and airlines (indirectly).

Interaction of Ukrainian Diaspora and the USA Government Regarding Celebration of Ukrainian Independence Day on January 22

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (47) ◽  
pp. 136-145
Author(s):  
Halyna Shchyhelska
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
The United States ◽  
100Th Anniversary ◽  
Totalitarian Regime ◽  
The Public ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Public Consciousness ◽  
The Usa

2018 marks the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of Ukrainian independence. OnJanuary 22, 1918, the Ukrainian People’s Republic proclaimed its independence by adopting the IV Universal of the Ukrainian Central Rada, although this significant event was «wiped out» from the public consciousness on the territory of Ukraine during the years of the Soviet totalitarian regime. At the same time, January 22 was a crucial event for the Ukrainian diaspora in the USA. This article examines how American Ukrainians interacted with the USA Government institutions regarding the celebration and recognition of the Ukrainian Independence day on January 22. The attention is focused on the activities of ethnic Ukrainians in the United States, directed at the organization of the special celebration of the Ukrainian Independence anniversaries in the US Congress and cities. Drawing from the diaspora press and Congressional Records, this article argues that many members of Congress participated in the observed celebration and expressed kind feelings to the Ukrainian people, recognised their fight for freedom, during the House of Representatives and Senate sessions. Several Congressmen submitted the resolutions in the US Congress urging the President of United States to designate January 22 as «Ukrainian lndependence Day». January 22 was proclaimed Ukrainian Day by the governors of fifteen States and mayors of many cities. Keywords: January 22, Ukrainian independence day, Ukrainian diaspora, USA, interaction, Congress

scholarly journals Trends in educational mobility: How does China compare to Europe and the United States?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-240
Author(s):  
Rob J Gruijters ◽  
Tak Wing Chan ◽  
John Ermisch
Keyword(s):  
Educational Opportunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Educational Mobility ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Large Decline ◽  
Inequality Of Educational Opportunity

Despite an impressive rise in school enrolment rates over the past few decades, there are concerns about growing inequality of educational opportunity in China. In this article, we examine the level and trend of educational mobility in China, and compare them to the situation in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and the USA. Educational mobility is defined as the association between parents’ and children’s educational attainment. We show that China’s economic boom has been accompanied by a large decline in relative educational mobility chances, as measured by odds ratios. To elaborate, relative rates of educational mobility in China were, by international standards, quite high for those who grew up under state socialism. For the most recent cohorts, however, educational mobility rates have dropped to levels that are comparable to those of European countries, although they are still higher than the US level.

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