Factors influencing detection probabilities of frogs in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia: implications for the design of monitoring studies

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 393 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. L. Dostine ◽  
S. J. Reynolds ◽  
A. D. Griffiths ◽  
G. R. Gillespie
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
High Detection ◽  
Frog Species ◽  
A Site

Context Failure to acknowledge potential bias from imperfect detection of cryptic organisms such as frogs may compromise survey and monitoring programmes targeting these species. Aims The aims of the present study were to identify proximate factors influencing detection probabilities of a range of frog species in monsoonal northern Australia, and to estimate the number of repeat censuses required at a site to have confidence that non-detected species are absent. Methods Data on detection or non-detection of frog species based on calling individuals were recorded during 10 wet-season censuses of 29 survey sites in the Darwin region. Factors influencing detection probabilities were identified using occupancy models; model selection was based on the Akaike information criterion. Sampling effort for individual species was calculated using model predictions at different stages of the wet season. Key results The covariate water temperature featured in the best-supported models for 7 of the 14 frog species. Six of these species were more likely to be detected when water temperatures were below 30°C. Detection probabilities were also correlated with the number of days since the commencement of the wet season, time since last significant rainfall, air temperature and time after sunset. Required sampling effort for individual species varied throughout the wet season. For example, a minimum of two repeat censuses was required for detection of Litoria caerulea in the early wet season, but this number increased to 13 in the middle stage of the wet season. Conclusions Variability in environmental conditions throughout the wet season leads to variability in detection probabilities of frog species in northern Australia. Lower water temperatures, mediated by rainfall immediately before or during surveys, enhances detectability of a range of species. For most species, three repeat surveys under conditions resulting in a high detection probability are sufficient to determine presence at a site. Implications Survey and monitoring programmes for frogs in tropical northern Australia will benefit from the results of the present study by allowing targeting of conditions of high detection probability for individual species, and by incorporating sufficient repeat censuses to provide accurate assessment of the status of individual species at a site.

The effect of survey method on the detection probabilities of frogs and tadpoles in large wetland complexes

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Skye Wassens ◽  
Andrew Hall ◽  
Jennifer Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Survey Methods ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Poor Indicator ◽  
Frog Species ◽  
Species Combination ◽  
Bait Traps ◽  
Fyke Nets

Knowledge of the probability of detecting a species with a given survey effort is important when planning monitoring programs. The present paper compares detection probabilities for six survey methods: audio-visual transect surveys targeting adult frogs, and sweep netting, bait traps, small fyke nets, large fyke nets and seine netting targeting tadpoles. Data were drawn from repeat surveys of 16 wetlands over a 3-year period (2008–2011). Detection probabilities of each method and species combination were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. Audio-visual surveys targeting adults had a higher probability of detecting individual species than did methods targeting their tadpoles. However, the presence of adults was a reasonably poor indicator of the presence of their tadpoles on any given survey occasion. Of the methods employed to target tadpoles, large and small fyke nets had a significantly higher probability of detecting tadpoles of all species than did bait traps, seining or sweep nets. Differences in the detection probability of different methods demonstrated that the choice of survey method can bias towards particular groups of species and, in some cases, underestimate breeding activity by frog species in large waterbodies.

Simultaneous estimation of occupancy and detection probabilities: an illustration using Cincinnatian brachiopods

Paleobiology ◽  
10.1666/12009 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Hsiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Population Ecology ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Occupancy Modeling ◽  
Simultaneous Estimation ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Future Data ◽  
Habitat Variables

Preservation in the fossil record is never perfect in the sense that we cannot sample all individuals of a given population in time and space. Incomplete detection (i.e., preservation and modern-day sampling of fossils) often affects estimates of other paleobiological parameters of interest, such as occupancy and turnover. Here, I simultaneously model the occupancy and detection probability of taxa, teasing apart the zeros in data that reflect true absences and those that imply non-detection of taxa that were actually present in the space and time of interest. Occupancy modeling, an approach first developed in population ecology, can easily incorporate covariates of interest, such as sampling effort and habitat variables. I use a data set of brachiopod taxa from the Paleozoic to illustrate the utility of this approach for paleontological questions. I demonstrate a range of models, including those that allow colonization between time intervals and those that incorporate facies as site covariates. I also suggest how future data collection can be improved so that process- and sampling-oriented approaches such as occupancy modeling can be applied with ease to paleobiological settings to answer important paleoecological and evolutionary questions.

scholarly journals Measurement-Driven Multi-Target Multi-Bernoulli Filter

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Shijie Li ◽  
Humin Lei
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Target Distribution ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
High Detection ◽  
Bernoulli Filter ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Stability And Accuracy

A measurement-driven multi-target multi-Bernoulli (MeMBer) filter which modifies the MeMBer filter by the measurements information is proposed in this paper. The proposed filter refines both the legacy estimates and the data-induced estimates of the MeMBer filter. For the targets under the legacy track set, the detection probabilities derived from the measurements are employed to refine the multi-target distribution. And for the targets under the data-induced track set, the multi-target distribution is further improved by the modified existence probabilities of the legacy tracks. Unlike the cardinality balanced MeMBer (CBMeMBer) filter, the proposed filter removes the cardinality bias in the MeMBer filter by utilizing the measurements information. Simulation results show that, compared with the traditional methods, the proposed filter can improve the stability and accuracy of the estimates and does not need the high detection probability hypothesis.

scholarly journals Between-year variation in the effects of phosphorus deficiency in breeder cows grazing tropical pastures in northern Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Coates ◽  
Rob M. Dixon ◽  
Robert J. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Phosphorus Deficiency ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Tropical Pastures ◽  
P Deficiency ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Seasonally Dry ◽  
Dietary Phosphorus ◽  
One Year ◽  
A Site

Breeder herd productivity can be severely reduced by dietary phosphorus (P) deficiency. The performance of small groups of P-deficient (Pdefic) or P-supplemented (Psupp) breeder cows was studied over 5 annual cycles while grazing C4 grass-Stylosanthes pastures at a site in the seasonally dry tropics of northern Australia. Soils contained c. 4 ppm of bicarbonate extractable P. Plasma inorganic P concentrations (PIP) during the wet season indicated that the Pdefic cows were deficient in P in 4 years and marginal in one year. Annual liveweight (LW) changes ranged widely between annual cycles from −71 to +13 kg in Pdefic cows and from +4 to +44 kg/head in Psupp cows. The LW responses to increased dietary P ranged from −9 to +115 kg, were greatest in years when LW losses by the Pdefic cows were greatest, and were associated with low-rainfall years. LW gains of calves suckling Psupp cows (mean 0.86 kg/d) tended to be higher (range 0.01–0.17 kg/d; mean 0.09 kg/d) than those of calves suckling Pdefic cows, but were significantly (P = 0.03) higher in only one year. Reconception appeared to be higher in Psupp than Pdefic cows during the 2 years of lower rainfall. Overall, the results indicated that responses to P supplementation by breeders grazing P-deficient pastures can vary widely between years. Therefore, the response in any one year may not reliably indicate responses in the longer term.

scholarly journals Analysis of Low Probability of Detection Capability for Chaotic Standard Map-Based FH-OFDMA System

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2198
Author(s):  
Junwoo Jung ◽  
Jaesung Lim ◽  
Sungyeol Park ◽  
Haengik Kang ◽  
Seungbok Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Symbol Sequence ◽  
Ofdma System ◽  
Standard Map ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Transmitted Symbol ◽  
Basic Symbol

A frequency hopping orthogonal frequency division multiple access (FH-OFDMA) can provide low probability of detection (LPD) and anti-jamming capabilities to users against adversary detectors. To obtain an extreme LPD capability that cannot be provided by the basic symbol-by-symbol (SBS)-based FH pattern, we proposed two FH patterns, namely chaotic standard map (CSM) and cat map for FH-OFDMA systems. In our previous work, through analysis of complexity to regenerate the transmitted symbol sequence, at the point of adversary detectors, we found that the CSM had a lower probability of intercept than the cat map and SBS. It is possible when a detector already knows symbol and frame structures, and the detector has been synchronized to the FH-OFDMA system. Unlike the previous work, here, we analyze whether the CSM provides greater LPD capability than the cat map and SBS by detection probability using spectrum sensing technique. We analyze the detection probability of the CSM and provide detection probabilities of the cat map and SBS compared to the CSM. Based on our analysis of the detection probability and numerical results, it is evident that the CSM provides greater LPD capability than both the cat map and SBS-based FH-OFDMA systems.

Fire regimes and vegetation sensitivity analysis: an example from Bradshaw Station, monsoonal northern Australia

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Yates ◽  
Jeremy Russell-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Landscape Scale ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Sensitive Species ◽  
Obligate Seeder ◽  
Return Interval ◽  
Noaa Avhrr

The fire-prone savannas of northern Australia comprise a matrix of mostly fire-resilient vegetation types, with embedded fire-sensitive species and communities particularly in rugged sandstone habitats. This paper addresses the assessment of fire-sensitivity at the landscape scale, drawing on detailed fire history and vegetation data assembled for one large property of 9100�km2, Bradshaw Station in the Top End of the Northern Territory, Australia. We describe (1) the contemporary fire regime for Bradshaw Station for a 10 year period; (2) the distribution and status of 'fire sensitive' vegetation; and (3) an assessment of fire-sensitivity at the landscape scale. Fire-sensitive species (FSS) were defined as obligate seeder species with minimum maturation periods of at least 3 years. The recent fire history for Bradshaw Station was derived from the interpretation of fine resolution Landsat MSS and Landsat TM imagery, supplemented with mapping from coarse resolution NOAA-AVHRR imagery where cloud had obstructed the use of Landsat images late in the fire season (typically October–November). Validation assessments of fire mapping accuracy were conducted in 1998 and 1999. On average 40% of Bradshaw burnt annually with about half of this, 22%, occurring after August (Late Dry Season LDS), and 65% of the property burnt 4 or more times, over the 10 year period; 89% of Bradshaw Station had a minimum fire return interval of less than 3 years in the study period. The derived fire seasonality, frequency and return interval data were assessed with respect to landscape units (landsystems). The largest landsystem, Pinkerton (51%, mostly sandstone) was burnt 41% on average, with about 70% burnt four times or more, over the 10 year period. Assessment of the fire-sensitivity of individual species was undertaken with reference to data assembled for 345 vegetation plots, herbarium records, and an aerial survey of the distribution of the long-lived obligate-seeder tree species Callitris intratropica. A unique list of 1310 plant species was attributed with regenerative characteristics (i.e. habit, perenniality, resprouting capability, time to seed maturation). The great majority of FSS species were restricted to rugged sandstone landforms. The approach has wider application for assessing landscape fire-sensitivity and associated landscape health in savanna landscapes in northern Australia, and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Detection of contaminant plumes released from landfills

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-857
Author(s):  
N. B. Yenigül ◽  
A.T. Hendsbergen ◽  
A. M. M. Elfeki ◽  
F. M. Dekking
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Contaminant Transport ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Average Concentration ◽  
Contaminant Plume ◽  
Contaminant Plumes ◽  
Heterogeneous Aquifer ◽  
Monitoring Well ◽  
Detection Probabilities

Abstract. Contaminant leaks released from landfills are a significant threat to groundwater quality. The groundwater detection monitoring systems installed in the vicinity of such facilities are vital. In this study the detection probability of a contaminant plume released from a landfill has been investigated by means of both a simulation and an analytical model for both homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifer conditions. The results of the two models are compared for homogeneous aquifer conditions to illustrate the errors that might be encountered with the simulation model. For heterogeneous aquifer conditions contaminant transport is modelled by an analytical model using effective (macro) dispersivities. The results of the analysis show that the simulation model gives the concentration values correctly over most of the plume length for homogeneous aquifer conditions, and that the detection probability of a contaminant plume at given monitoring well locations match quite well. For heterogeneous aquifer conditions the approximating analytical model based on effective (macro) dispersivities yields the average concentration distribution satisfactorily. However, it is insufficient in monitoring system design since the discrepancy between the detection probabilities of contaminant plumes at given monitoring well locations computed by the two models is significant, particularly with high dispersivity and heterogeneity.

scholarly journals The economics of phosphorus supplementation of beef cattle grazing northern Australian rangelands

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 683
Author(s):  
M. K. Bowen ◽  
F. Chudleigh ◽  
R. M. Dixon ◽  
M. T. Sullivan ◽  
T. Schatz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Cattle Herd ◽  
Annual Business ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
P Deficiency ◽  
Business Profit ◽  
Dry Seasons ◽  
Land Types

Context Phosphorus (P) deficiency occurs in beef cattle grazing many rangeland regions with low-P soils, including in northern Australia, and may severely reduce cattle productivity in terms of growth, reproductive efficiency and mortality. However, adoption of effective P supplementation by cattle producers in northern Australia is low. This is likely to be due to lack of information and understanding of the profitability of P supplementation where cattle are P-deficient. Aims The profitability of P supplementation was evaluated for two dissimilar regions of northern Australia, namely (1) the Katherine region of the Northern Territory, and (2) the Fitzroy Natural Resource Management (NRM) region of central Queensland. Methods Property-level, regionally relevant herd models were used to determine whole-of-business productivity and profitability over 30 years. The estimated costs and benefits of P supplementation were obtained from collation of experimental data and expert opinion of persons with extensive experience of the industry. The economic consequences of P supplementation at the property level were assessed by comparison of base production without P supplementation with the expected production of P-supplemented herds, and included the implementation phase and changes over time in herd structure. In the Katherine region, it was assumed that the entire cattle herd (breeders and growing cattle) grazed acutely P-deficient land types and the consequences of (1) no P supplementation, or P supplementation during (2) the dry season, or (3) both the wet and dry seasons (i.e. 3 scenarios) were evaluated. In the Fitzroy NRM region, it was assumed that only the breeders grazed P-deficient land types with three categories of P deficiency (marginal, deficient and acutely deficient), each with either (1) no P supplementation, or P supplementation during (2) the wet season, (3) the dry season, or (4) both the wet and dry seasons (i.e. 12 scenarios). Key results In the Katherine region, year-round P supplementation of the entire cattle herd (7400 adult equivalents) grazing acutely P-deficient pasture resulted in a large increase in annual business profit (+AU$500000). Supplementing with P (and N) only in the dry season increased annual business profit by +AU$200000. In the Fitzroy NRM region, P supplementation during any season of the breeder herd grazing deficient or acutely P-deficient pastures increased profit by +AU$2400–AU$45000/annum (total cattle herd 1500 adult equivalents). Importantly, P supplementation during the wet season-only resulted in the greatest increases in profit within each category of P deficiency, comprising +AU$5600, AU$6300 and AU$45000 additional profit per annum for marginal, deficient and acutely P-deficient herds respectively. Conclusions The large economic benefits of P supplementation for northern beef enterprises estimated in the present study substantiate the current industry recommendation that effective P supplementation is highly profitable when cattle are grazing P-deficient land types. Implications The contradiction of large economic benefits of P supplementation and the generally low adoption rates by the cattle industry in northern Australia suggests a need for targeted research and extension to identify the specific constraints to adoption, including potential high initial capital costs.

limited data for the greater Townsville area (Kay et al.1996). Based on the prevalence of key vector species and their abundance and that of the viruses recovered, it was concluded that Big Bay, originally recommended as a prime site for recreational development by the Department of Local Government in 1985, actually presented lower risk than any other locality. Antill Creek also proved relatively safe in terms of mosquito-borne infections, whereas Toonpan during the wet season was a place to be avoided. Both Ross River and the environs of Townsville offered intermediate risk, the latter due to large numbers of saltmarsh mosquitoes breeding in intertidal wetlands. 9.5 Snails and swimmer’s itch Schistosome dermatitis, known as swimmer’s itch, is a common global problem for users of recreational swimming areas in water resource developments. The rash is caused by free living larvae called cercariae (Figure 9.4) of parasitic flukes which burrow into exposed parts of the body. Normally the life-cycle involves water birds such as ducks and pulmonate snails, so infection of humans is accidental. A large number of cercariae may penetrate the skin where they die but cause a localized allergic reaction in sensitized persons. In northern Australia, swimmer’s itch (Trichobilharzia) has been traditionally associated with Austropeplea (= Lymnaea) lessoni (= vinosa) although two planorbid snails, Amerianna carinata and Gyraulus stabilis, have also been identified as intermediate hosts in Lake Moondarra near Mt Isa, Queensland. Our recent data implicates Gyraulus gilberti at the Ross River dam. Snails are also commonly infected with other trematode cercariae, mainly echinostomes, strigeids/diplostomids and clinostomids.

1998 ◽  
pp. 148-148
Keyword(s):  
Lower Risk ◽  
The Body ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Intermediate Hosts ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Swimmer’S Itch ◽  
Intertidal Wetlands ◽  
Water Birds ◽  
Swimmer's Itch

scholarly journals A Novel Structure for a Multi-Bernoulli Filter without a Cardinality Bias

Electronics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1484
Author(s):  
Weijian Si ◽  
Hongfan Zhu ◽  
Zhiyu Qu
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Density Approximation ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Generating Functional ◽  
Significant Bias ◽  
Novel Structure ◽  
High Detection ◽  
Multi Target Tracking ◽  
Bernoulli Filter

The original multi-target multi-Bernoulli (MeMBer) filter for multi-target tracking (MTT) is shown analytically to have a significant bias in its cardinality estimation. A novel cardinality balance multi-Bernoulli (CBMeMBer) filter reduces the cardinality bias by calculating the exact cardinality of the posterior probability generating functional (PGFl) without the second assumption of the original MeMBer filter. However, the CBMeMBer filter can only have a good performance under a high detection probability, and retains the first assumption of the MeMBer filter, which requires measurements that are well separated in the surveillance region. An improved MeMBer filter proposed by Baser et al. alleviates the cardinality bias by modifying the legacy tracks. Although the cardinality is balanced, the improved algorithm employs a low clutter density approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel structure for a multi-Bernoulli filter without a cardinality bias, termed as a novel multi-Bernoulli (N-MB) filter. We remove the approximations employed in the original MeMBer filter, and consequently, the N-MB filter performs well in a high clutter intensity and low signal-to-noise environment. Numerical simulations highlight the improved tracking performance of the proposed filter.

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