scholarly journals Host–pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (39) ◽  
pp. 10926-10931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel G. Streicker ◽  
Jamie C. Winternitz ◽  
Dara A. Satterfield ◽  
Rene Edgar Condori-Condori ◽  
Alice Broos ◽  
...  

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Becker ◽  
Alice Broos ◽  
Laura M. Bergner ◽  
Diana K. Meza ◽  
Nancy B. Simmons ◽  
...  

AbstractIn the Neotropics, vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) are the main reservoir host for rabies, a highly fatal encephalitis caused by viruses in the genus Lyssavirus. Although patterns of rabies virus exposure and infection have been well-studied for vampire bats in South America and Mexico, exploring the ecology of vampire bat rabies in other regions is crucial for predicting risks to livestock and humans. In Belize, rabies outbreaks in livestock have increased in recent years, underscoring the need for systematic data on viral dynamics in vampire bats. In this study, we examine the first three years of a longitudinal study on the ecology of vampire bat rabies in northern Belize. Rabies seroprevalence in bats was high across years (29–80%), suggesting active and endemic virus circulation. Across two locations, the seroprevalence time series per site were inversely related and out of phase by at least a year. Microsatellite data demonstrated historic panmixia of vampire bats, and mark–recapture detected rare but contemporary inter-site dispersal. This degree of movement could facilitate spatial spread of rabies virus but is likely insufficient to synchronize infection dynamics, which offers one explanation for the observed phase lag in seroprevalence. More broadly, our analyses suggest frequent transmission of rabies virus within and among vampire bat roosts in northern Belize and highlight the need for future spatiotemporal, phylogenetic, and ecological studies of vampire bat rabies in Central America.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Lavergne ◽  
Edith Darcissac ◽  
Hervé Bourhy ◽  
Sourakhata Tirera ◽  
Benoît de Thoisy ◽  
...  

A rabies virus was detected in a common vampire bat ( Desmodus rotundus ) in French Guiana. Its genomic sequence was obtained and found to be closely related to other hematophagous bat-related viruses that widely circulate in the northern Amazon region. This virus is named AT6.


2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (9) ◽  
pp. 5067-5073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Corey M. Peak ◽  
Juan Fernández-Gracia ◽  
Alexandra Hill ◽  
Amara Jambai ◽  
...  

Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen’s underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen’s incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. e0004920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Medeiros ◽  
Viviane Jusot ◽  
Guy Houillon ◽  
Anvar Rasuli ◽  
Luzia Martorelli ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 20160235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah A. Jenkins ◽  
Nicolas Lecomte ◽  
James A. Schaefer ◽  
Steffen M. Olsen ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
...  

Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20–77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. e0006105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio A. Benavides ◽  
Elizabeth Rojas Paniagua ◽  
Katie Hampson ◽  
William Valderrama ◽  
Daniel G. Streicker
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amaia Calderón-Larrañaga ◽  
Davide L Vetrano ◽  
Debora Rizzuto ◽  
Tom Bellander ◽  
Laura Fratiglioni ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundWe aimed to describe the distribution of excess mortality (EM) during the first weeks of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Stockholm Region, Sweden, according to individual age and sex, and the sociodemographic contextMethodsWeekly all-cause mortality data were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the period 01/01/2015 to 17/05/2020. EM during the first 20 weeks of 2020 was estimated by comparing observed mortality rates with expected mortality rates during the five previous years (N=2,379,792). EM variation by socioeconomic status (tertiles of income, education, Swedish-born, gainful employment) and age distribution (share of 70+ year-old persons) was explored based on Demographic Statistics Area (DeSO) data.FindingsAn EM was first detected during the week of March 23-29 2020. During the peaking week of the epidemic (6-12 April 2020), an EM of 160% was observed: 211% in 80+ year-old women; 179% in 80+ year-old men. During the same week, the highest EM was observed for DeSOs with lowest income (171%), lowest education (162%), lowest share of Swedish-born (178%), and lowest share of gainfully employed (174%). There was a 1.2 to 1.7-fold increase in EM between those areas with a higher vs. lower proportion of young people.InterpretationLiving in areas with lower socioeconomic status and younger populations is linked to COVID-19 EM. These conditions might have facilitated the viral spread. Our findings add to the well-known biological vulnerability linked to increasing age, the relevance of the sociodemographic context when estimating the individual risk to COVID-19.FundingNone.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Megid ◽  
Julio Andre Benavides Tala ◽  
Laís Dário Belaz Silva ◽  
Fernando Favian Castro Castro ◽  
Bruna Letícia Devidé Ribeiro ◽  
...  

The control of vampire bat rabies (VBR) in Brazil is based on the culling of Desmodus rotundus and the surveillance of outbreaks caused by D. rotundus in cattle and humans in addition to vaccination of susceptible livestock. The detection of anti-rabies antibodies in vampire bats indicates exposure to the rabies virus, and several studies have reported an increase of these antibodies following experimental infection. However, the dynamics of anti-rabies antibodies in natural populations of D. rotundus remains poorly understood. In this study, we took advantage of recent outbreaks of VBR among livestock in the Sao Paulo region of Brazil to test whether seroprevalence in D. rotundus reflects the incidence of rabies in nearby livestock populations. Sixty-four D. rotundus were captured during and after outbreaks from roost located in municipalities belonging to three regions with different incidences of rabies in herbivores. Sixteen seropositive bats were then kept in captivity for up to 120 days, and their antibodies and virus levels were quantified at different time points using the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT). Antibody titers were associated with the occurrence of ongoing outbreak, with a higher proportion of bats showing titer >0.5 IU/ml in the region with a recent outbreak. However, low titers were still detected in bats from regions reporting the last outbreak of rabies at least 3 years prior to sampling. This study suggests that serological surveillance of rabies in vampire bats can be used as a tool to evaluate risk of outbreaks in at risk populations of cattle and human.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Corey M. Peak ◽  
Juan Fernández-Gracia ◽  
Alexandra Hill ◽  
Amara Jambai ◽  
...  

AbstractForecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen’s underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen’s incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel further before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera.Significance statementUnderstanding how infectious diseases spread is critical for preventing and containing outbreaks. While advances have been made in forecasting epidemics, much is still unknown. Here we show that the incubation period – the time between exposure to a pathogen and onset of symptoms – is an important factor in predicting spatiotemporal spread of disease and provides one explanation for the different trajectories of the recent Ebola and cholera outbreaks in Sierra Leone. We find that outbreaks of pathogens with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, tend to have less predictable spread, whereas pathogens with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera, spread in a more predictable, wavelike pattern. These findings have implications for the scale and timing of reactive interventions, such as vaccination campaigns.


Author(s):  
Daniel J. Becker ◽  
Alice Broos ◽  
Laura M. Bergner ◽  
Diana K. Meza ◽  
Nancy B. Simmons ◽  
...  

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