scholarly journals Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (20) ◽  
pp. 5211-5216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather M. Kharouba ◽  
Johan Ehrlén ◽  
Andrew Gelman ◽  
Kjell Bolmgren ◽  
Jenica M. Allen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Phenological Shifts

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348–2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator–prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Approaches to Depicting First Nations, Inupiat and Inuvialuit Environmental Information in GIS Format: Options for the Handling of Spatial Information in the Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-Op Database

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jadah Elizabeth Folliott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Nations ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ecological Knowledge ◽  
Sea Levels

As the pace of climate change continues to accelerate in the North, traditional environmental knowledge systems are increasingly recognized by researchers, land use planners, government agencies, policy-makers and indigenous peoples as important contributors to environmental impact and climate change assessment and monitoring. Increasing temperatures, melting glaciers, reductions in the extent and thickness of sea ice, thawing permafrost and rising sea levels all provide strong evidence of increasing temperatures in the Arctic. This warming climate has the potential to change migration patterns, the diversity, range, and distribution of animal and plant species, and increase contaminants in the food chain from atmospheric transport of organic pollutants and mercury, thus raising concerns regarding the safety of traditional foods. Since 1996, the Arctic Borderlands Ecological Knowledge Co-op (ABEKC) has systematically recorded First Nations, Inupiat and Inuvialuit observations of landscape changes in the lower Mackenzie, Northern Yukon and eastern Alaska. Time-series data (regarding berry, caribou, fish, weather, ice and snow, plants, and other animal observations) have been obtained through annual interviews with the most active fishers, harvesters and hunters in the communities of Aklavik, Arctic Village, Fort McPherson, Kaktovik, Old Crow, and more recently, in Inuvik, Tsiigehtchic, and Tuktoyaktuk. An evaluation of the spatial utility of the ABEKC database and the many steps that are involved in the collection, storage, and organization of the Co-op’s data was documented. The ABEKC database provided an excellent opportunity to explore the problem of depicting complex qualitative information on northern landscape change in an intelligible GIS format. Initial attempts to develop the database in spatial format were critically evaluated and recommendations were provided in order to explore whether the data gathering and subsequent mapping process can be improved, whether more useful information can be obtained from the data, and to ensure the proper handling of the data in future years.

Predator–prey interactions and climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Bretagnolle ◽  
Julien Terraube
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Available Information

Climate change is likely to impact all trophic levels, although the response of communities and ecosystems to it has only recently received considerable attention. Further, it is expected to affect the magnitude of species interactions themselves. In this chapter, we summarize why and how climate change could affect predator–prey interactions, then review the literature about its impact on predator–prey relationships in birds, and provide prospects for future studies. Expected effects on prey or predators may include changes in the following: distribution, phenology, population density, behaviour, morphology, or physiology. We review the currently available information concerning particular key topics: top-down versus bottom-up control, specialist versus generalist predators, functional versus numerical responses, trophic cascades and regime shifts, and lastly adaptation and selection. Finally, we focus our review on two well-studied bird examples: seabirds and raptors. Key future topics include long-term studies, modelling and experimental studies, evolutionary questions, and conservation issues.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change in paddy production and adaptation strategies in Tharu communities of Dang district, Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-75
Author(s):  
Pradip Raj Poudel ◽  
Narayan Raj Joshi ◽  
Shanta Pokhrel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rice Varieties ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Maximum Rainfall

A study on effects of climate change on rice (Oryza sativa) production in Tharu communities of Dang district of Nepal was conducted in 2018A.D to investigate the perception and major adaptation strategies followed by Tharu farmers. The study areas were selected purposively. Cross-sectional data was collected using a household survey of 120 households by applying simple random sampling technique with lottery method for sample selection. Primary data were collected using semi-structured and pretested interview schedule, focus group discussion and key informants interview whereas monthly and annual time series data on temperature and precipitation over 21years (1996-2016) were collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Kathmandu as secondary data. Descriptive statistics and trend analysis were used to analyze the data. The ratio of male and female was found to be equal with higher literacy rate at study area than district. Most of the farmers depended on agriculture only for their livelihood where there was large variation in land distribution. Farmers had better access to FM/radio for agricultural extension information sources. The study resulted that Tharu farmers of Dang perceived all parameters of climate. Temperature and rainfall were the most changing component of climate perceived by farmers. The trend analysis of temperature data of Dang over 21 years showed that maximum, minimum and average temperature were increasing at the rate of 0.031°C, 0.021°C and 0.072°C per year respectively which supports the farmers perception whereas trend of rainfall was decreased with 7.56mm per year. The yearly maximum rainfall amount was increased by 1.15mm. The production of local indigenous rice varieties were decreasing while hybrid and improved rice varieties were increasing. The district rice production trend was increasing which support the farmer’s perception. The study revealed that there were climate change effects on paddy production and using various adaptation strategies to cope in Dang district.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of climate change compound indices in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Roshani ◽  
Fatemeh Parak ◽  
Hossein Esmaili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Tourism Climate

Abstract The time-placement scheme of climate extreme changes is important. In this regard, a set of a compound indices derived using daily resolution climatic time series data is examined to assess climate change in Iran. The compound indices were examined for 47 synoptic meteorological stations during 1981–2015. The results show that most stations experienced a negative trend for the cool/dry (CD) and cool/wet (CW) index and a positive trend in CW was observed in some dispersed small areas. Both warm/dry (WD) and warm/wet (WW) indices have similar behavior, but the magnitude and spatial consistency of WW days were much less than WD days. The results show that more than 80% of stations experienced a decrease in the annual occurrence of the cold modes and an increase in the annual occurrence of the warm modes. On the other hand, universal thermal climate index (UTCI) change demonstrated a significant increase in the annual occurrence of strong heat stress (32–38 °C) and significant decrease in the annual occurrence of no thermal stress class (9–26 °C). Moreover, trends in tourism climate index (TCI), including TCI≥ 60 and TCI≥ 80, showed similar changes but with weak spatial coherence.

scholarly journals Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Pramod K. Jha ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Madan Lall Shrestha ◽  
Rangaswamy Munniappan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.

scholarly journals Climate Change Made Major Contributions to Soil Water Storage Decline in the Southwestern US during 2003–2014

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1947
Author(s):  
Jianzhao Liu ◽  
Liping Gao ◽  
Fenghui Yuan ◽  
Yuedong Guo ◽  
Xiaofeng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Atmospheric Water

Soil water shortage is a critical issue for the Southwest US (SWUS), the typical arid region that has experienced severe droughts over the past decades, primarily caused by climate change. However, it is still not quantitatively understood how soil water storage in the SWUS is affected by climate change. We integrated the time-series data of water storage and evapotranspiration derived from satellite data, societal water consumption, and meteorological data to quantify soil water storage changes and their climate change impacts across the SWUS from 2003 to 2014. The water storage decline was found across the entire SWUS, with a significant reduction in 98.5% of the study area during the study period. The largest water storage decline occurred in the southeastern portion, while only a slight decline occurred in the western and southwestern portions of the SWUS. Net atmospheric water input could explain 38% of the interannual variation of water storage variation. The climate-change-induced decreases in net atmospheric water input predominately controlled the water storage decline in 60% of the SWUS (primarily in Texas, Eastern New Mexico, Eastern Arizona, and Oklahoma) and made a partial contribution in approximately 17% of the region (Central and Western SWUS). Climate change, primarily as precipitation reduction, made major contributions to the soil water storage decline in the SWUS. This study infers that water resource management must consider the climate change impacts over time and across space in the SWUS.

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AMAN AND BORO RICE YIELDS IN BANGLADESH

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650008 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. MEHEDI HASAN ◽  
Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER ◽  
JEFF GOW
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rice Varieties ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
Boro Rice

Despite substantial volumes of research on the impacts of climate change on rice productivity little attention has been paid in evaluating how these impacts differ between traditional varieties (TVs) and high yielding varieties (HYVs). In this study, Aman and Boro rice yields are examined, as respective examples. Cross-sectional time series data over 41 years for four climatic regions of Bangladesh has been used to explore this issue. Each region was examined individually and then across region comparisons were made to try to understand the impacts of major climate variables: average temperature, temperature range, and seasonal rainfall. Using both linear regression and panel data regression models, the major findings are that HYVs for both Aman and Boro rice varieties have less capacity to cope with changing climate conditions in contrast to TVs. Therefore, government should help to promote research and development aimed at developing more climate tolerant varieties, particularly temperature tolerant HYVs which have the potential to solidify the country’s food security situation at least in terms of food availability.

scholarly journals Splendide Mendax: False Label Claims About High and Rising Alcohol Content of Wine

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian M. Alston ◽  
Kate B. Fuller ◽  
James T. Lapsley ◽  
George Soleas ◽  
Kabir P. Tumber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Alcohol Content ◽  
Demand Shifts ◽  
Expert Ratings ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractAre wine alcohol labels accurate? If not, why? We explore the high and rising alcohol content of wine and examine incentives for false labeling, including the roles of climate, evolving consumer preferences, and expert ratings. We draw on international time-series data from a large number of countries that experienced different patterns of climate change and influences of policy and demand shifts. We find systematic patterns that suggest that rising wine alcohol content may be a nuisance by-product of producer responses to perceived market preferences for wines having more-intense flavours, possibly in conjunction with evolving climate. (JEL Classifications: D22, L15, L66, Q18, Q54).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document