scholarly journals Overstated carbon emission reductions from voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (39) ◽  
pp. 24188-24194
Author(s):  
Thales A. P. West ◽  
Jan Börner ◽  
Erin O. Sills ◽  
Andreas Kontoleon
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Quasi Experimental

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting.

scholarly journals A Quasi-Experimental Study of Medicaid Expansion and Urban Mortality in the American Northeast

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyrus Ayubcha ◽  
Pedram Pouladvand ◽  
Soussan Ayubcha
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Medicaid Expansion ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Urban Settings ◽  
Average Treatment ◽  
Quasi Experimental

Objectives: To investigate the association of state-level Medicaid expansion and non-elderly mortality rates from 1999 to 2018 in Northeastern urban settings.Methods: This quasi-experimental study utilized a synthetic control method to assess the association of Medicaid expansion on non-elderly urban mortality rates [1999–2018]. Counties encompassing the largest cities in the Northeastern Megalopolis (Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston) were selected as treatment units (n = 5 cities, 3,543,302 individuals in 2018). Cities in states without Medicaid expansion were utilized as control units (n = 17 cities, 12,713,768 individuals in 2018).Results: Across all cities, there was a significant reduction in the neoplasm (Population-Adjusted Average Treatment Effect = −1.37 [95% CI −2.73, −0.42]) and all-cause (Population-Adjusted Average Treatment Effect = −2.57 [95%CI −8.46, −0.58]) mortality rate. Washington D.C. encountered the largest reductions in mortality (Average Treatment Effect on All-Cause Medical Mortality = −5.40 monthly deaths per 100,000 individuals [95% CI −12.50, −3.34], −18.84% [95% CI −43.64%, −11.67%] reduction, p = < 0.001; Average Treatment Effect on Neoplasm Mortality = −1.95 monthly deaths per 100,000 individuals [95% CI −3.04, −0.98], −21.88% [95% CI −34.10%, −10.99%] reduction, p = 0.002). Reductions in all-cause medical mortality and neoplasm mortality rates were similarly observed in other cities.Conclusion: Significant reductions in urban mortality rates were associated with Medicaid expansion. Our study suggests that Medicaid expansion saved lives in the observed urban settings.

Were California’s Decarceration Efforts Smart? A Quasi-Experimental Examination of Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-134
Author(s):  
Aaron Gottlieb ◽  
Pajarita Charles ◽  
Branden McLeod ◽  
Jean Kjellstrand ◽  
Janaé Bonsu
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Incarceration Rate ◽  
Criminal Justice Reform ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Demographic Subgroups ◽  
Racial Ethnic

Over the last decade, California has undertaken one of the largest criminal justice reform efforts in recent U.S. history. However, little is known about the causal impact of these reforms on the overall incarceration rate and disparities in incarceration rates across demographic subgroups. Using a quasi-experimental synthetic control method and data from the Vera Institute of Justice and the U.S. Census Bureau, our results provide strong evidence that California’s reforms have substantially reduced the state’s overall incarceration rate, but that they have resulted in an increase in Latinx-White incarceration disparities. We also find suggestive evidence that the reforms have exacerbated Black-White incarceration disparities and disparities between men and women. Our study is especially relevant at a time when the United States is increasingly interested in reducing the population of people incarcerated and suggests that care must be taken to ensure that reform efforts do not increase incarceration disparities among demographic subgroups.

Is Small Beautiful? The Quasi-experimental Analysis of the Impact of Territorial Fragmentation on Costs in Polish Local Governments

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 832-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawel Swianiewicz ◽  
Julita Łukomska
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Administrative Services ◽  
Experimental Scheme ◽  
Economy Of Scale ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Operating Surplus

Debates on the impact of size of subnational jurisdiction on the costs of public-service delivery have a very long tradition, but results are still far from conclusive. This article applies a quasi-experimental scheme of the synthetic control method for Polish municipal fragmentation to analyze the impact of territorial reform on administrative spending as well as on the operating surplus of the budget. Earlier studies using similar methods focused on amalgamation reforms, so the study of territorial fragmentation is an important new contribution to knowledge on scale effects. The analysis clearly confirms the existence of economy of scale in administrative services. The result for the operating surplus is less clear and more ambiguous. Results of the study are to a large extent a mirror of earlier analysis of territorial amalgamation consequences, which confirms the importance of scale for administrative costs, but not necessarily for costs of other local services.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Economic Adjustment Programmes for Greece: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4970
Author(s):  
Julio Revuelta
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

Three Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs) were implemented in Greece, between 2010 and 2015, without achieving the proposed economic objectives. This article analyses the impact of the EAPs in Greece using the synthetic control method (SCM) and has three main contributions. First, it identifies a long-term negative impact worth 35.3 per cent of the Greek GDP per capita caused by the application of the EAPs. Second, it finds that three-quarters of the estimated negative and unsustainable impact accumulated over the 2010–2012 period. Third, it identifies a regressive effect of the EAPs on income distribution, the Greek population with lower incomes experienced a greater negative effect caused by the adjustment programmes. These results underscore the need to review and correct the conditional financial assistance framework currently in force in the European Union.

scholarly journals Joint culpability: The effects of medical marijuana laws on crime

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Wei Chu ◽  
W Townsend
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Medical Marijuana ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Medical Marijuana Laws

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Most U.S. states have passed medical marijuana laws. In this paper, we study the effects of these laws on violent and property crime. We first estimate models that control for city fixed effects and flexible city-specific time trends. To supplement this regression analysis, we use the synthetic control method which can relax the parallel trend assumption and better account for heterogeneous policy effects. Both the regression analysis and the synthetic control method suggest no causal effects of medical marijuana laws on violent or property crime at the national level. We also find no strong effects within individual states, except for in California where the medical marijuana law reduced both violent and property crime by 20%.

scholarly journals Joint culpability: The effects of medical marijuana laws on crime

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Wei Chu ◽  
W Townsend
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Medical Marijuana ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Medical Marijuana Laws

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Most U.S. states have passed medical marijuana laws. In this paper, we study the effects of these laws on violent and property crime. We first estimate models that control for city fixed effects and flexible city-specific time trends. To supplement this regression analysis, we use the synthetic control method which can relax the parallel trend assumption and better account for heterogeneous policy effects. Both the regression analysis and the synthetic control method suggest no causal effects of medical marijuana laws on violent or property crime at the national level. We also find no strong effects within individual states, except for in California where the medical marijuana law reduced both violent and property crime by 20%.

Democratization and Economic Output in Sub-Saharan Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel de Kadt ◽  
Stephen B. Wittels
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Positive Effect

Does democratization increase economic output? Answers to this question are inconsistent partly due to the challenges of examining the causal forces behind political and economic phenomena that occur at the national level. We employ a new empirical approach, the synthetic control method, to study the economic effects of democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1975–2008. This method yields case-specific causal estimates, which show that political reform associated with the “third wave” of democracy had highly heterogeneous, yet often substantively important effects in Africa. In some countries democratization adversely affected economic output while in others it exerted an analogous positive effect.

scholarly journals Did carbon emission trading system reduce emissions in China? An integrated approach to support policy modeling and implementation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Aihua ◽  
Pier Paolo Miglietta ◽  
Pierluigi Toma
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Emission Trading ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Carbon Emission Trading ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAs the highest carbon emission country in the world, it is particularly important to investigate the implementation effect of China’s carbon emission trading (CET) system. Because of the complexity to figure out the counterfactual effect when a single unit is treated, the counterfactual and causal effects of the CET system on the carbon emissions are seldom identified. In order to overcome the weakness that counterfactual effect is difficult to be verified and policy persistence is difficult to be estimated, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Regression Discontinuity (RD) are combined to better understand and evaluate the impact of CET system in China. Through the analysis, it is found that CET system is effective in China, but the effect is driven by economic development, energy consumption, FDI and other variables. Because of the differences in economic, geographical, technological and environmental conditions in various areas, each Chinese provincial government should formulate a targeted policy according to local conditions, ensuring an economic and environmentally sustainable growth in the future.

scholarly journals Decoupling synthetic control methods to ensure stability, accuracy and meaningfulness

SERIEs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Albalate ◽  
Germà Bel ◽  
Ferran A. Mazaira-Font
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

AbstractThe synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used to evaluate causal effects under quasi-experimental designs. However, SCM suffers from weaknesses that compromise its accuracy, stability and meaningfulness, due to the nested optimization problem of covariate relevance and counterfactual weights. We propose a decoupling of both problems. We evaluate the economic effect of government formation deadlock in Spain-2016 and find that SCM method overestimates the effect by 0.23 pp. Furthermore, we replicate two studies and compare results from standard and decoupled SCM. Decoupled SCM offers higher accuracy and stability, while ensuring the economic meaningfulness of covariates used in building the counterfactual.

scholarly journals Does the Kyoto Protocol as an International Environmental Policy Promote Forest Carbon Sinks?

2022 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Control Method ◽  
National Level ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Carbon Sinks ◽  
Policy Effect ◽  
Commitment Period

Under the background of carbon neutrality, the carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems is an important way to mitigate climate change. Forest could not only protect the environment but also an important industry for economic development. As an international climate policy that first recognized the role of forest carbon sinks on climate change, the question becomes, has the Kyoto Protocol promoted the development of forest carbon sinks in contracting parties? To explore this, data of forest can be obtained at the national level. Hence, data of economic, social, polity and climate in 147 countries is also collected. The generalized synthetic control method is adopted. The results show that the policy effect of the Kyoto Protocol was obvious and significant. Moreover, the effect was more significant after the enforcement in 2005. Especially after the first commitment period, the policy effect of the second period is more obvious. Some policy implications are drawn.

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