scholarly journals Short-term forecasts of expected deaths

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (15) ◽  
pp. e2025324118
Author(s):  
Silvia Rizzi ◽  
James W. Vaupel
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Behavioral Healthcare ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Mortality Forecasts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Count

We introduce a method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic; associated policy interventions; and behavioral, healthcare, social, and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to COVID-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if COVID-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last 5 y, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically.

scholarly journals Forecasting Imminent Deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Rizzi ◽  
James W Vaupel
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Behavioral Healthcare ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Mortality Forecasts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Count

We introduce a new method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, associated policy interventions and behavioral, healthcare, social and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to covid-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if covid-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last five years, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically.

THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ON THE REGIONS’ ECONOMIC SECURITY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Tymchyshyn ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Deep Penetration ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Space ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The article highlights the impact of information technology on the economic security of regions and threats to economic security of the region that arise from the use of information technology. The system of economic security of the region in the context of development and application of information technologies is considered, which should include the following elements: diagnostics and identification of the existing state of economic security of the region; identification of threats to the economic security of the region from the use of information technology by business entities and from trends and problems in the development of the IT sector in the region; assessment of identified threats; development of effective mechanisms for their prevention; ensuring the increase of the level of economic security of the region with observance of the balance of national, regional and local interests; monitoring the level of economic security of the region. The main tasks of monitoring the economic security of the region in the context of development for the use of information technology are analyzed: monitoring the state of development of the IT sphere of the region and the level of ICT use in the activities of enterprises; timely detection of changes occurring in the IT sphere of the region and in the activities of economic entities of the region in the process of using information technology, and the reasons that caused them; prevention of negative trends leading to the formation and development of tensions in the IT sphere and socio-economic space of the region to prevent threats to its economic security; implementation of short-term forecasting of trends in the most important processes in the IT sphere of the region and in the functioning of economic entities from other sectors of the economy, due to the widespread use of IT in commercial, management and production activities; assessment of the effectiveness of methods, organizational structures and processes of managing the economic security of the region in terms of information development of society and the deep penetration of IT in various areas of management and economic activity at the regional level. The principles of monitoring the economic security of the region in the context of development and application of information technologies are revealed. The requirements to be met by the mechanism of economic security of the region, related to the intensification of informatization processes and the development of the IT sphere, are described. The functions that should be performed by the mechanism of economic security of the region (MESR) related to the intensification of informatization processes and the development of the IT sphere are substantiated. The main groups of computer crimes with the use of information computer technologies are identified, which have an extremely sharp impact on the economic condition of both a particular enterprise and the region as a whole.

scholarly journals Using record linkage to assess the impact of late presentation for care and treatment on short-term mortality among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa.

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chodziwadziwa Whiteson Kabudula ◽  
Georges Reniers ◽  
Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé ◽  
Kathleen Kahn ◽  
Stephen Tollman
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Cell Count ◽  
Late Presentation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cd4 Cell Count ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Care And Treatment ◽  
Cd4 Cell ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rural South Africa

ABSTRACT ObjectivesTo assess the impact of late presentation (CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl at presentation) for care and treatment on short-term mortality (death within a year of presentation) among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa. ApproachWe applied deterministic and probabilistic record linkage approaches to link adult patients seeking care and treatment for HIV from a health facility between 2007 and 2013 to population under continuous surveillance by the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa. The resulting record-linked dataset was thereafter analysed to estimate short-term mortality (death within a year of presentation) differences in late presenters (initial presentation at health facility with CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl) and early presenters (presentation with CD4 cell count of 200 or more cells/μl). In the linked dataset, CD4 cell count was extracted from the health facility database where as date of death came from the HDSS database. ResultsA total of 3,553 patients who sought care and treatment for HIV at Bhubhezi clinic between 2007 and 2013 were linked to the Agincourt HDSS surveillance population. Proportion of patients classified as late presenters was 60.9%. Short-term mortality was 8.9% (317/3,553): 11.1% among those who presented late and 5.5 % among those who presented early (P<0.001). ConclusionRecord linkage facilitated the assessment of the impact of late presentation for care and treatment on short-term mortality among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa. In the population studied, late presentation is high and is contributing to high mortality among people living with HIV. Strategies that would facilitate early presentation are needed in order to reduce mortality among people living with HIV.

scholarly journals 1325. Inpatient Initiation of ART Improves Short-Term Mortality in People Living with HIV

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S479-S479
Author(s):  
Jamie Campbell ◽  
Christopher Polk ◽  
Danya Roshdy ◽  
Michael Leonard
Keyword(s):  
Hospice Care ◽  
Intervention Group ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Virologic Suppression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Patient Admissions ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Treatment of HIV is recommended as soon as possible and early initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with improved engagement in care; however, treatment with cART is often deferred in hospitalized patients despite being correlated with improved outcomes. We implemented an institutional intervention to ensure all people living with HIV (PLwH) were on cART during hospitalization to improve patient outcomes. Methods We prospectively identified all PLwH hospitalized at our institution and had ID physicians and pharmacists ensure they were on appropriate cART and linked to outpatient care. We retrospectively collected clinical and lab data to assess the impact of our intervention on inpatient mortality, 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission rate, and frequency of outpatient follow-up. Patients were excluded from analysis if they were admitted for hospice care. Results We identified 389 patient admissions in 275 unique patients, of which 304 admissions were already on cART at admission. After ID physician assessment, 37 of the 85 not on cART at admission were initiated on therapy. We assessed the impact of this intervention on short-term outcomes as listed in Table 1. Despite the intervention group having similar immunologic and virologic baseline characteristics to those not initiated on cART, their inpatient and 30-day mortality was similar to those already on cART. Readmission rates also decreased in the intervention group. Thirteen of 24 patients in the intervention group who could be tracked for long-term follow-up within our system achieved virologic suppression by 90 days after hospital discharge. Conclusion Inpatient treatment with cART during hospitalization improves short-term mortality outcomes. This study also demonstrates the value of inpatient cART treatment as most patients achieved virologic suppression at subsequent outpatient follow-up. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Short-Term Forecasting Model of Passenger Flow on High-Speed Rail considering the Impact of Train Service Frequency

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingying Lai ◽  
Jun Liu ◽  
Yongji Luo ◽  
Minshu Ma
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Traffic Management ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Speed Rail ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Service Frequency ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

Short-term forecasting of OD (origin to destination) passenger flow on high-speed rail (HSR) is one of the critical tasks in rail traffic management. This paper proposes a hybrid model to explore the impact of the train service frequency (TSF) of the HSR on the passenger flow. The model is composed of two parts. One is the Holt-Winters model, which takes advantage of time series characteristics of passenger flow. The other part considers the changes of TSF for the OD in different time during a day. The two models are integrated by the minimum absolute value method to generate the final hybrid model. The operational data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway from 2012 to 2016 are used to verify the effectiveness of the model. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of the TSF.

Effect of Premorbid Beta-Blockers on Mortality in Patients With Sepsis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 088506662110529
Author(s):  
Daisuke Hasegawa ◽  
Ryota Sato ◽  
Narut Prasitlumkum ◽  
Kazuki Nishida
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Beta Blockers ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Controlled Trials ◽  
Cochrane Central Register ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Objective The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the impact of premorbid beta-blockers on mortality in patients with sepsis. Data Sources We searched EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and MEDLINE for eligible studies. The protocol was registered at the PROSPERO (CRD42021256813). Study Selection Two authors independently evaluated the following inclusion criteria: (1) randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, cross-sectional studies; (2) patients with sepsis aged ≥18 years, and (3) premorbid beta-blocker use. Data Extraction Two authors extracted the patients’ characteristics and outcomes independently. All analyses were performed using the random-effects models. The primary outcome was short-term mortality, defined as mortality within 30 days, in-hospital or intensive care unit mortality. Data Synthesis Ten studies (n = 24 748 patients) were included. The pooled odds ratio (OR) of short-term mortality associated with the premorbid use of beta-blockers was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-1.04; P = .12; I2 = 50%). Five studies reported an adjusted OR of short-term mortality. The pooled adjusted OR of short-term mortality associated with the premorbid use of beta-blockers was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.83; P < .001; I2 = 0%). Conclusion Premorbid beta-blockers were associated with a lower short-term mortality in patients with sepsis.

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