scholarly journals Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic with nationwide telecommunication data

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (26) ◽  
pp. e2100664118
Author(s):  
Joel Persson ◽  
Jurriaan F. Parie ◽  
Stefan Feuerriegel
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic. We derive human mobility from anonymized, aggregated telecommunication data in a nationwide setting (Switzerland; 10 February to 26 April 2020), consisting of ∼1.5 billion trips. In comparison to the same time period from 2019, human movement in Switzerland dropped by 49.1%. The strongest reduction is linked to bans on gatherings of more than five people, which are estimated to have decreased mobility by 24.9%, followed by venue closures (stores, restaurants, and bars) and school closures. As such, human mobility at a given day predicts reported cases 7 to 13 d ahead. A 1% reduction in human mobility predicts a 0.88 to 1.11% reduction in daily reported COVID-19 cases. When managing epidemics, monitoring human mobility via telecommunication data can support public decision makers in two ways. First, it helps in assessing policy impact; second, it provides a scalable tool for near real-time epidemic surveillance, thereby enabling evidence-based policies.

scholarly journals Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhidong Cao ◽  
Qingpeng Zhang ◽  
Xin Lu ◽  
Dirk Pfeiffer ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Infection ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reporting Data

AbstractEstimating the key epidemiological features of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic proves to be challenging, given incompleteness and delays in early data reporting, in particular, the severe under-reporting bias in the epicenter, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. As a result, the current literature reports widely varying estimates. We developed an alternative geo-stratified debiasing estimation framework by incorporating human mobility with case reporting data in three stratified zones, i.e., Wuhan, Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and mainland China excluding Hubei. We estimated the latent infection ratio to be around 0.12% (18,556 people) and the basic reproduction number to be 3.24 in Wuhan before the city’s lockdown on January 23, 2020. The findings based on this debiasing framework have important implications to prioritization of control and prevention efforts.One Sentence SummaryA geo-stratified debiasing approach incorporating human movement data was developed to improve modeling of the 2019-nCoV epidemic.

Key supply chain strategies for the post-COVID-19 era: implications for resilience and sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjoy Kumar Paul ◽  
Md. Abdul Moktadir ◽  
Kamrul Ahsan
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Supply Chain Resilience ◽  
Sustainability Practices ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

PurposeThe impacts of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak continue to devastate supply chain operations. To attain a competitive advantage in the post-COVID-19 era, decision-makers should explore key supply chain strategies to move forward and ready their policies to be implemented when the crisis sufficiently subsides. This is a significant and practical decision-making issue for any supply chain; hence, the purpose of this study is to explore and analyse key supply chain strategies to ensure robustness and resilience in the post-COVID-19 era.Design/methodology/approachThis study conducted an expert survey targeting practitioners and academics to explore key supply chain strategies as means of moving forward in the post-COVID-19 era. Further, the key strategies were quantitatively analysed by applying the best-worst method (BWM) to determine their priority importance in the context of the manufacturing sector.FindingsThe results revealed that supply chain resilience and sustainability practices could play a dominant role in this period. The findings of the study can assist supply chain decision-makers in their formulations of key strategies.Originality/valueThis is the first study to investigate key supply chain strategies for the post-COVID-19 era. This study will help practitioners paying attention to resilience and sustainability practices for managing the impacts of future large-scale disruptions.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimization of Integrated Civilian-Military Scheduling of Medical Supplies for Epidemic Prevention and Control

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Ling ◽  
Zheng-Lian Su ◽  
Xun-Lin Jiang ◽  
Yu-Jun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Minimum Ratio

In a large-scale epidemic, such as the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), there is huge demand for a variety of medical supplies, such as medical masks, ventilators, and sickbeds. Resources from civilian medical services are often not sufficient for fully satisfying all of these demands. Resources from military medical services, which are normally reserved for military use, can be an effective supplement to these demands. In this paper, we formulate a problem of integrated civilian-military scheduling of medical supplies for epidemic prevention and control, the aim of which is to simultaneously maximize the overall satisfaction rate of the medical supplies and minimize the total scheduling cost, while keeping a minimum ratio of medical supplies reservation for military use. We propose a multi-objective water wave optimization (WWO) algorithm in order to efficiently solve this problem. Computational results on a set of problem instances constructed based on real COVID-19 data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Sick on the Frontlines:A Cross Sectional Study on COVID-19 Infection, Symptom Severity Amongst Emergency Medicine Residents and Fellows in Urban Academic Hospital Settings (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacey Frisch ◽  
Sarah Jones ◽  
James Willis ◽  
Richard Sinert
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Emergency Medicine ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Academic Hospital ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Time Period ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Specific Symptoms

BACKGROUND COVID-19, an illness caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, affected many aspects of healthcare worldwide in 2020. From March to May of 2020, New York City (NYC) experienced a large surge of cases. OBJECTIVE The authors aimed to characterize the amount of illness experienced by residents and fellows in 2 NYC hospitals during this time period. METHODS This was a cross-sectional observational study. An IRB-exempt survey was distributed to emergency medicine housestaff in May 2020 and submissions were accepted through August 2020. RESULTS 64 residents and fellows responded to our survey (a 62% response rate). 42% of responders tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Most residents experienced symptoms that could be consistent with COVID-19 however few received PCR testing. Fevers and/or chills along with loss of smell and/or taste were the most specific symptoms for COVID-19, with p-values <0.05. All 13 housestaff who reported no symptoms during the study period tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that the rate of COVID-19 illness among emergency department housestaff is much higher than previously reported. Further studies are needed to characterize illness among medical staff in emergency departments across the nation. The high infection rate among emergency medicine trainees stresses the importance of supplying adequate PPE for healthcare professionals.

scholarly journals The Spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria: The Influence of Transportation and Economic Zones

2021 ◽  
pp. 27-35
Author(s):  
Nathaniel O. Ajayi ◽  
Richard O. Awonusika ◽  
Adeniyi S. Ale ◽  
Ayooluwade Ebiwonjumi
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Economic Zones

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) now known as Covid-19 was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease rapidly spread to other cities in China and to other parts of the world. The aim of this study is to investigate the contribution which the economic zones and movement of people into the country and from city to city and State to State within the country have on the spread of the disease in Nigeria. Data of the daily update of Covid-19 occurrence in Nigeria as given by the NCDC Covid-19 Situation report were assembled. The data of the first index in each State between February 27 and March 28, 2020 with the status of whether they were from foreign travel or from within the community was compiled. The results show that economic zones and human movement contribute to the early spread of the disease. The initial spatial spread in Nigeria was observed to follow closely behind the test laboratory distribution pattern. This may suggest that samples from the locations far from the laboratories were not obtained, hence the suggestion for early aggressive country-wide-large scale testing to cover almost everyone should be started very early before the spread is everywhere. The test labs should cover the whole country with the tests made free and mandatory to encourage and force people to come out for it and the restriction protocols should strictly be adhered to. The boarders of the country should be closed early to stop further import of the disease from the high risk countries. When the airports are later re-opened, they should not be to the high-risk countries of the disease. There is also a need for a national policy on responding to and managing any future public health crisis such as Covid-19 pandemic before its occurrence. This policy will help the government to know what to start doing quickly when there is any occurrence. Government should also look inward to mobilize the scientists inside the country by providing research grants purposely to combat the pandemic. Such grants will enable our scientists to make their contribution in addition to the ones made by the scientists outside the country.

scholarly journals The Upsurge and Impact of COVID 19 in India: Health Issues and Remedial Measures

2021 ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
Kanchi Isswani
Keyword(s):  
Sudden Increase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Frontline Workers ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Major Decision ◽  
Better Than

The novel Coronavirus was something that nobody was prepared for. It was that part of the syllabus which was always neglected. The contagious disease which started in the Wuhan region of China had started to settle in various parts of the World. The outbreak of this disease has reached such a huge number that all the countries witnessed lockdown in some form or the other. Some people have witnessed destruction of mankind while some have even leisured this time to their fullest but as it has been always said “Prevention is better than cure”. Prevention of covid 19 in all the nations was one of the major steps which was taken in the year 2020. In India it all started in the year of 2019 December when the first ever case of covid 19 was reported in the state of Kerala followed by Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Delhi. Following such a situation and then sudden increase in the no of cases all over the country a major decision was taken that was of Complete lockdown excluding the emergency and essential services. Before taking the step of lockdown, as a gesture of respect to the frontline workers, government of India announced Tali Bajao movement. In the period of lockdown Certain norms were even made mandatory that were wearing a mask, maintenance of hand sanitation and following social distancing of 1.5 meters in public places. All the educational institutes and teachings were even suspended during the time period of lockdown as it could have become a hub for the virus to spread. With time, the restrictions which were laid down in lockdown were started to be reduced in the phase wise manner and finally India noticed its very first Unlock period. In all this scenario mankind has dealt with various situations and have emerged to be a better person. All these steps were crucial to control the spread of Novel Coronavirus and prevention from the already spread cases.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a new challenge in untreated wastewater

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 1005-1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Kumar Chaudhry ◽  
Payal Sachdeva
Keyword(s):  
Human Health ◽  
Human Exposure ◽  
Etiologic Agent ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Successful Management ◽  
Virus Shedding ◽  
Untreated Wastewater ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 12 March 2020. As of 27 May 2020, WHO statistics exhibited that more than five million confirmed cases have been reported globally. Much remains unclear about the fate and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus 2019, in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 infection, the etiologic agent of the current COVID-19 pandemic, is followed by virus shedding in the stool. The quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, therefore, enables monitoring of the prevalence of infections among the population through wastewater-based epidemiology. This review discusses the possible spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater and its impact on human health, if any. The information and resources outlined in this paper are based on recently published studies and provide information to decision-makers on the successful management of COVID-19 and reduce the risk of human exposure to COVID-19. Additionally, systems-based approaches to curtail COVID-19 spread are also discussed.

scholarly journals Extensive Host Sharing of Central European Tula Virus

2009 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 459-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit ◽  
Sandra Essbauer ◽  
Rasa Petraityte ◽  
Kumiko Yoshimatsu ◽  
Kirsten Tackmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Sequence Evolution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Microtus Arvalis ◽  
Transmission Cycle ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Tula Virus ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Large Panel ◽  
Vole Species

ABSTRACT To examine the host association of Tula virus (TULV), a hantavirus present in large parts of Europe, we investigated a total of 791 rodents representing 469 Microtus arvalis and 322 Microtus agrestis animals from northeast, northwest, and southeast Germany, including geographical regions with sympatric occurrence of both vole species, for the presence of TULV infections. Based on serological investigation, reverse transcriptase PCR, and subsequent sequence analysis of partial small (S) and medium (M) segments, we herein show that TULV is carried not only by its commonly known host M. arvalis but also frequently by M. agrestis in different regions of Germany for a prolonged time period. At one trapping site, TULV was exclusively detected in M. agrestis, suggesting an isolated transmission cycle in this rodent reservoir separate from spillover infections of TULV-carrying M. arvalis. Phylogenetic analysis of the S and M segment sequences demonstrated geographical clustering of the TULV sequences irrespective of the host, M. arvalis or M. agrestis. The novel TULV lineages from northeast, northwest, and southeast Germany described here are clearly separated from each other and from other German, European, or Asian lineages, suggesting their stable geographical localization and fast sequence evolution. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that TULV represents a promiscuous hantavirus with a large panel of susceptible hosts. In addition, this may suggest an alternative evolution mode, other than a strict coevolution, for this virus in its Microtus hosts, which should be proven in further large-scale investigations on sympatric Microtus hosts.

scholarly journals Pooling of samples to optimize SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis by RT-qPCR: comparative analysis of two protocols.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Volpato ◽  
Daiana Lima-Morales ◽  
Priscila Lamb Wink ◽  
Julia Willig ◽  
Fernanda de-Paris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Diagnostic Yield ◽  
Rna Extraction ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Positive Individual ◽  
Sample Pooling ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Pooled Samples

RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 is the main diagnostic test used to identify the novel coronavirus. Several countries have used large scale SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR testing as one of the important strategies for combating the pandemic. In order to process the massive needs for coronavirus testing, the usual throughput of routine clinical laboratories has reached and often surpassed its limits and new approaches to cope with this challenge must be developed. This study has aimed to evaluate the use pool of samples as a strategy to optimize the diagnostic of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR in a general population. A total of 220 naso/orofaryngeal swab samples were collected and tested using two different protocols of sample pooling. In the first protocol (Protocol A); 10 clinical samples were pooled before RNA extraction. The second protocol (Protocol B) consisted of pooling the already extracted RNAs from 10 individual samples. Results from Protocol A were identical (100% agreement) with the individual results. However, for results from Protocol B, reduced agreement (91%) was observed in relation to results obtained by individual testing. Inconsistencies observed were related to RT-qPCR results with higher Cycle Thresholds (Ct > 32.73). Furthermore, in pools containing more than one positive individual, the Ct of the pool was equivalent to the lowest Ct among the individual results. These results provide additional evidence in favor of the clinical use of pooled samples for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis by RT-qPCR and suggest that pooling of samples before RNA extraction is preferrable in terms of diagnostic yield.

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