Making intelligence more transparent

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-93
Author(s):  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Weichao Di
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Conceptual Blending ◽  
Cognitive Analysis ◽  
Critical Metaphor Analysis ◽  
Rising China ◽  
Language Strategies ◽  
Strategic Policies

This paper attempts to make a critical cognitive analysis of US strategic intelligence reports and aims at investigating language strategies and cognitive biases that occur in the reports and how the reports create the “realities” that may influence policymakers’ decisions. The data for analysis include seven reports released by US Intelligence Community which analyze, more or less, the Sino-US relations currently and in the foreseeable future as well as the implications of a rising China on US policies. The analytic framework is built up by integrating Critical Metaphor Analysis, Conceptual Blending Theory and Discourse Space Theory, each of which deal with different aspects of the discourse and on the whole provide a comprehensive analysis of it. The critical cognitive analysis of intelligence reports could disclose the views that analysts hold on particular issues, providing valuable reference for understanding or evaluating their reports’ contents, and reveal the ideology inherent in US strategic thinking, helping to estimate US strategic policies in the long term.

Strategic Foresight Tools for Planning and Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 775-797
Author(s):  
Barbara Jane Holland
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Good Predictor ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
Strategic Foresight ◽  
Structured Approach ◽  
Blind Spots

Today, companies can no longer assume that the past will be a good predictor of the future; Those that fail to prepare for radically new possibilities may face sudden irrelevance. Strategic Foresight, aka, Futures thinking, provides a structured approach enabling people and organizations to overcome cognitive biases and think more realistically about change. It helps to uncover blind spots, imagine radically different futures, and improve decision-making. Climate disruption, artificial intelligence, and automation are quickly transforming the landscape for business and sustainability. This chapter will review the Strategic Foresight tools used to embed long-term strategic thinking and planning concerning policy and strategy.

scholarly journals Strategic Thinking for Sustainability: A Review of 10 Strategies for Sustainable Mobility by Bus for Cities

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Fernandez-Sanchez ◽  
Alvaro Fernandez-Heredia
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
Compressed Natural Gas ◽  
Collective Transport ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Bus ◽  
Bus Service ◽  
Main Ideas

The sustainable mobility of the future comes about through sustainable ways of transport, such as walking, cycling, or collective transport. This includes the bus, the underground, and trains in big cities. This article reviews bus-related policies and initiatives worldwide. It also analyses ten cities looking at medium and long-term strategies for the urban bus service. The main ideas are: the forecasts for the use of the urban bus system indicate a significant increase in demand, therefore, there is a need for expanding the offered services; efforts to change the fleets towards Compressed Natural Gas and Electric vehicles; support of technological innovation for communication and accessibility; improving commercial speed and frequencies by infrastructure improvements, operation optimisation and technology; and, the link between these strategies and the air quality of cities. The transition towards a sustainable transport will happen based on the belief that the bus service is no longer the transport of the past or the present, but of the future.

The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

2020 ◽  
pp. 107-144
Author(s):  
Martha Whitesmith
Keyword(s):  
Serial Position ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Position Effects ◽  
Serial Position Effects ◽  
The Us

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias using the scoring systems of credibility of information and diagnostic value of information. The study is based on a disguised version of the intelligence case for both the biological and nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein’s regime that was used to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study shows that the version of ACH taught by the PHIA to the UK’s intelligence community between 2016-2017 has no statistically significant mitigating effect on the occurrence of serial position effects or confirmation bias.

The Effect of Transgenerational Control Intention on Family-Firm Performance: It Depends Who Pursues It

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 629-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hoffmann ◽  
Peter Jaskiewicz ◽  
Torsten Wulf ◽  
James G. Combs
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Family Firms ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Family Firm ◽  
Socioemotional Wealth ◽  
German Family

Transgenerational control intention (TCI) is a pivotal characteristic of many family firms. Yet, it remains unclear whether TCI benefits family-firm performance by instilling a long-term view, or hurts performance by fueling harmful socioemotional wealth (SEW) goals. We posit that it depends who pursues it. When faced with TCI, family managers are known to suffer from cognitive biases that, we submit, do not similarly apply to nonfamily managers. Thus, only family managers harm performance when pursuing TCI. An empirical investigation of 107 private German family firms supports our theory; the effect of TCI on firm performance depends on who pursues it.

scholarly journals More allopurinol is needed to get gout patients <0.36 mmol/L: a gout audit in the form of a before–after trial

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce Arroll ◽  
Merran Bennett ◽  
Nicola Dalbeth ◽  
Dilanka Hettiarachchi ◽  
Ben Cribben ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uric Acid ◽  
Clinical Audit ◽  
First Language ◽  
Acute Gout ◽  
Diagnosis And Management ◽  
Preventive Medication ◽  
English Speaking ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Language Strategies

AIM: To establish a benchmark for gout control using the proportion of patients with serum uric acid (SUA)<0.36 mmol/L, assess patients’ understanding of their preventive medication and trial a mail and phone intervention to improve gout control. METHODS: Patients clinically diagnosed with gout and baseline SUAs were identified in two South Auckland practices. A mail and phone intervention was introduced aimed at improving the control of gout. Intervention #1 took place in one practice over three months. Intervention #2 occurred in the other practice four to 16 months following baseline. RESULTS: No significant change in SUA from intervention #1 after three months. The second intervention by mail and phone resulted in improvement in SUA levels with a greater proportion of those with SUA <0.36 mmol/L and the difference in means statistically significant (p=0.039 two-tailed paired t-test). Benchmarking for usual care was established at 38–43% SUA <0.36 level. It was possible to increase from 38% to 50%. Issues relating to gout identified included lack of understanding of the need for long-term allopurinol and diagnosis and management for patients for whom English is not their first language. STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVEMENT: (1) Community workers who speak Pacific languages may assist GPs in communicating to non-English speaking patients. (2) Alternative diagnoses should be considered in symptomatic patients with prolonged normouricaemia. (3) GPs should gradually introduce allopurinol after acute gout attacks, emphasising importance of prophylaxis. (4) A campaign to inform patients about benefits of allopurinol should be considered. (5) A simple one keystroke audit is needed for gout audit and benchmarking. (6) GP guidelines for gout diagnosis and management should be available. KEYWORDS: Gout; uric acid; clinical audit; benchmarking; family practice

scholarly journals Co-designed strategic planning and agile project management in academia: case study of an action research group

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Enric Senabre Hidalgo ◽  
Mayo Fuster Morell
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Action Research ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Research Group ◽  
Participatory Design ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Agile Project Management ◽  
Strategy As Practice

AbstractStrategic planning, a standard activity for project management in different areas and types of organisations, can contribute to improving the dynamics of collaboration in academia, and specifically in research processes. This paper joins the still scarce studies on strategic planning within research groups, contributing to the field of both team science and organisational management from a social sciences perspective and “strategy-as-practice” paradigm. Through the case study of an action research group, after the experimental co-creation of its long-term strategy involving different participatory design methodologies, we quantitatively analyze how this process influenced communication and group relations, both internally and in relation to its participation in the ecosystem with other stakeholders. Thus, as a result of a detailed content analysis in the different communication channels and tools of the group, we address its impact on the team’s agile project management (APM), adopted in a novel way by its members. Data compared between periods, once the strategic plan was co-created, suggest that this type of approach to co-created strategic thinking can improve coordination, cohesion and joint vision among participants. In agreement with emerging academic literature in this field, pertaining to the need to understand strategic planning as a process of socialization and dialogue, other relevant results of the study point to the particular suitability of this type of planning in research environments interested not only in its academic, but also social and ecosystemic impact. The results obtained and discussed also provide elements of assessment when considering the applicability of this type of strategic co-creation process in other areas of knowledge and disciplines.

Strategic Thinking and Strategic Planning: Not Yet Habitual in Albania

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-77
Author(s):  
Ilda Jeha ◽  
Ylli Çabiri
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Actual Cost ◽  
Hypothetical Situation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Strategic Studies

Abstract Overall, short-term and medium-term thinking prevails in Albania, while long-term strategic thinking is inexistent. This is reflected in the planning of each sector, where strategic planning is completely missing. The actual cost of addressing problems is much higher and almost unaffordable compared to a hypothetical situation where there would have been strategic studies in place to anticipate them. After analyzing the constitutional functions of the President of the Republic, we conclude that strategic planning functions should be vested on the President’s Office. Being that these functions are not carried out by any other institution the President is impartial according to the Constitution, therefore more reliable; this creates better chances of a solid communication between the President and the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Assembly. This can be achieved by amending the Constitution, by a popular referendum, or simply by incorporating the solutions in the President’s Organic Law.

Das Potenzial der Strategischen Vorausschau zur Reduktion kognitiver Verzerrungen

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-22
Author(s):  
Marion A. Weissenberger-Eibl ◽  
Tamara Huber
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Group Composition ◽  
Human Information Processing ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Strategic Foresight ◽  
Human Thinking ◽  
World Information ◽  
The One

In order to secure a long-term competitive advantage in an increasingly complex world, information gathering, evaluation and exploitation is vital for uncovering future developments and dynamics in the corporate environment. The Strategic Foresight methods systematize the process of information processing, allowing a targeted look into the future. The benefits of such methods depend largely on the individuals who perform them. They may be subject to dysfunctional ways of thinking and behaving that evolves from mental models and the restricted ability of human information processing for coping with complexity and reflecting reality. On the one hand, the methods of Strategic Foresight contribute to the reduction of human dysfunctions, so called cognitive biases, by the approach design. On the other hand, the group composition of the employees involved and their degree of heterogeneity also have the potential to minimize biases. Applying approaches from cognitive science for human thinking in the field of Strategic Foresight outlines the contribution of foresight methods for reducing individual dysfunctions.

Deliberation and Long-Term Decisions

2018 ◽  
pp. 250-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael K. MacKenzie
Keyword(s):  
Public Reason ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Effective Representation

This chapter argues that deliberation can help support the effective representation of future generations in several ways. First, deliberation can help motivate long-term thinking. If our preferences are shaped by cognitive biases against the future, the demands of deliberation can encourage us to think more carefully about the future. Deliberation also creates pragmatic incentives for political actors to invoke the potential interests of future generations. Second, deliberative democracy (on the large scale) makes it possible for societies to talk to themselves about what they are doing and where they want to go. Third, practices of public reason-giving can help coordinate the actions of non-overlapping generations by providing long-term initiatives with a discursive basis of justification. This can help protect against the time-inconsistency problem and thereby provide incentives for contemporary actors to invest in long-term projects.

scholarly journals Human Resources Strategies in Romanian Tourism Companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Tătăruşanu ◽  
Angelica Onea ◽  
Dumitru Zaiţ
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Online Environment ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Strategic Approach ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
Human Resources Strategies

In the context of political, social and economic global worries, tourism remains an underexploited option as its ability to be a consistent revenues source in Romania. Some companies have understood this and thus they have successfully developed their activities by building their business in a strategic way. In the same way, others failed due to lack of vision and coherence. The strategic thinking capacity, that has led them to success, has been reflected specially in their human resources strategies - positive effects generator on long term. What do they mean and what do these strategies consist of? The main purpose of this article consists in the analysis of information both from the online environment and literature reviews referring to this subject. It also aims to provide best practices and recommendations for a strategic approach of human resources in tourism companies, having in mind an area whose future must to be considered.

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