Long-run, Medium-term, and Short-run Social Conditions for Coming out of the Crisis

1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veljko Rus
Keyword(s):  
Coming Out ◽  
Social Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Derek Zweig
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Short Run

We explore the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the United States (1949-2019) through both Bayesian and spectral lenses. We employ Bayesian vector autoregression (“BVAR”) to expose empirical interrelationships between unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Generally, we do find short-run behavior consistent with the Phillips curve, though it tends to break down over the longer term. Emphasis is also placed on Phelps’ and Friedman’s NAIRU theory using both a simplistic functional form and BVAR. We find weak evidence supporting the NAIRU theory from the simplistic model, but stronger evidence using BVAR. A wavelet analysis reveals that the short-run NAIRU theory and Phillips curve relationships may be time-dependent, while the long-run relationships are essentially vertical, suggesting instead that each relationship is primarily observed over the medium-term (2-10 years), though the economically significant medium-term region has narrowed in recent decades to roughly 4-7 years. We pay homage to Phillips’ original work, using his functional form to compare potential differences in labor bargaining power attributable to labor scarcity, partitioned by skill level (as defined by educational attainment). We find evidence that the wage Phillips curve is more stable for individuals with higher skill and that higher skilled labor may enjoy a lower natural rate of unemployment.

Sind betriebliche Bündnisse für Arbeit erfolgreich? / Are ln-plant Alliances for Job Security Successful?

2005 ◽  
Vol 225 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olaf Hübler
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Job Security ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pay Cuts ◽  
Works Council ◽  
The Impact

SummaryThis paper uses data from the WSI works council survey in 2003 where detailed information on agreements between employers and employees to secure jobs are available. Firm size and profit effects of company-level agreements are investigated. A major result is that the development of firm size is less favourable in companies with in-plant alliances than in other firms. Interestingly, this result is stronger within the group of successful firms. If we distinguish between several measures our estimation shows that training on-the-job and prolongation of working hours are positively correlated with the objective of job security while pay cuts, reduction of working hours and reorganisation of firms lead to further lay-offs. More ambiguous is the impact of working hours accounts. Our investigations demonstrate that the agreements are more successful if employers or the management suggest an in-plant alliance than works councils or unions. Usually, we observe only short run positive employment effects but in the medium term the effects are negative. Only in the long run the development turns around and in-plant alliances are really successful. Sometimes, renegotiations can help to improve the situation.

scholarly journals Liquidity connectedness in cryptocurrency market

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mudassar Hasan ◽  
Muhammad Abubakr Naeem ◽  
Muhammad Arif ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Frequency Domain Analysis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Liquidity Shocks ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Run Time

AbstractWe examine the dynamics of liquidity connectedness in the cryptocurrency market. We use the connectedness models of Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Econom 16(2):271–296, 2018) on a sample of six major cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Monero (XMR), and Dash. Our static analysis reveals a moderate liquidity connectedness among our sample cryptocurrencies, whereas BTC and LTC play a significant role in connectedness magnitude. A distinct liquidity cluster is observed for BTC, LTC, and XRP, and ETH, XMR, and Dash also form another distinct liquidity cluster. The frequency domain analysis reveals that liquidity connectedness is more pronounced in the short-run time horizon than the medium- and long-run time horizons. In the short run, BTC, LTC, and XRP are the leading contributor to liquidity shocks, whereas, in the long run, ETH assumes this role. Compared with the medium term, a tight liquidity clustering is found in the short and long terms. The time-varying analysis indicates that liquidity connectedness in the cryptocurrency market increases over time, pointing to the possible effect of rising demand and higher acceptability for this unique asset. Furthermore, more pronounced liquidity connectedness patterns are observed over the short and long run, reinforcing that liquidity connectedness in the cryptocurrency market is a phenomenon dependent on the time–frequency connectedness.

scholarly journals Effect of FDI on Pollution in China: New Insights Based on Wavelet Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Jun ◽  
Muhammad Zakaria ◽  
Syed Shahzad ◽  
Hamid Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Run

By applying the wavelet tool, this study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on pollution in China, for the period 1982 to 2016. Carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions are used as pollution variables. The results reveal that FDI positively affected pollution at high frequency (short term) during the 1980s and after 2000, and at low frequency (long term) but not at medium frequency (medium term) for the entire time period. It demonstrates that FDI increases pollution both in the short and long term, but not in the medium term. It indicates that FDI has created pollution havens in China. For robustness analysis, spectral causality test was applied. The results of this causality test indicate that FDI causes CO2 emissions both in the short-run and long-run. This suggests that in China FDI predicts CO2 emissions. Thus, stringent environmental rules are required to restrict the inflows of foreign dirty industries in China.

scholarly journals The governance of federal debt in the United States of America

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Gisele Mah
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Interest Payment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Federal Debt

The United State of America has been experiencing high debt to GDP ratio of more than 100% and these Public debts are detrimental. The main purpose of this study was to examine the shocks of the variables on others in the USA economy by using quarterly data. The variance decomposition and the Generalised Impulse Response Function techniques were employed to analyse the data. The result revealed that high variation of shocks in real federal debt is explained by their own innovations in the short run, by CPI followed by real federal debt its self. In the long run, this leads to CPI and real government spending. The GIRF reveals that in the short run, real federal debt responds negatively to shocks from CPI, real federal interest payment and real federal government tax receipts and positively to real federal debt and real government spending. In medium term, only real federal government tax receipts are negative while the others are positive. In the long run, the response are all positive to shock from the independent variables. The results lead to the recommendation that the US government should focus on real federal debt in the short run. In the medium term, US government should focus on increasing real government spending and reducing only real federal government tax receipts. In the long run the target should real be federal debt, CPI, real federal interest payment, real government spending and real federal government tax receipts.

scholarly journals Finance Leasing and ARMA Forecasting: Evidence from Albania

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alban Korbi ◽  
Llesh Lleshaj
Keyword(s):  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Optimal Forecasting ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
Medium Enterprises

Ten financial institutions are offering finance leasing-loans in Albania. Even though finance leasing is a potential financing resource for small and medium enterprises in Albania (which are on average 95% of national enterprises), the value of finance leasing is one thousand times smaller than other forms of medium and long-term loans or real estate loans. Developing of finance leasing is a challenge for the progress of the financial sector, and untapped potential as well. Currently, the finance leasing portfolio is dominated by financing for personal vehicles and work-vehicles, therefore diversification of leasing products is an immediate need of consumers. This study analyzes the value of finance leasing in Albania with time series from 2008 to 2020 (with quarterly frequency). The methodology applied for data processing is the co-integration method of finance leasing and other forms of medium-term and long-term financing. Also, the ARMA method is used to forecast the value of finance leasing. We found out that there is no long-run relationship between finance leasing with medium and long-term loans. Therefore, econometric tests suggest optimal forecasting ARMA (1,1) modeling. The parameters of ARMA model are positive statistically significant with autocorrelation AR (1) and negative statistically significant with the moving average MA (1), and forecasting values have a short-run equilibrium with a wide interval.

Overall Coordination of Megacity Governance from a Regional Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1550020
Author(s):  
Yong LIU
Keyword(s):  
Urban Population ◽  
Urban Economics ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Urban Infrastructure ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Global Problem ◽  
Regional Background ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Public Products ◽  
Short Run

The governance of megacities is a global problem, but not without way out [O’Sullivan. 2000. Urban Economics. 4th edn. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill Company]. Overall speaking, in the short run, it mainly depends on strengthening the daily management of the city’s operation and digging out the potentials of the current infrastructure. And in the medium term, the city’s governance should rely on the further construction and improvement of the infrastructure, and greatly enhance the city’s capability of providing public products and services. And in the long run, the adjustment and dispersal of the city’s functions would be vital to finally realize a dynamic equilibrium between urban population and the capacity of urban infrastructure. In fact, all of these are related to the regional background of megacity governance, and should be taken into consideration together with the development of the megacity’s hinterland area, and then the problem can be properly solved.

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document