Assessing the impact of climate change scenarios on water resources in southern Brazil

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

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Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology ◽

10.3126/jhm.v8i1.15568 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 10-21

Author(s):

Narayan P Gautam ◽

Manohar Arora ◽

N.K. Goel ◽

A.R.S. Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

General Circulation ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Future ◽

Future Climatic Condition ◽

The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

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The Impact of Climate Change on American and Canadian Indigenous Peoples and Their Water Resources: A Climate Justice Perspective

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2832879 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Itzchak E. Kornfeld

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Indigenous Peoples ◽

Climate Justice ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

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Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

Hydrological Processes ◽

10.1002/hyp.9747 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 2018-2032 ◽

Cited By ~ 89

Author(s):

S. Ashraf Vaghefi ◽

S. J. Mousavi ◽

K. C. Abbaspour ◽

R. Srinivasan ◽

H. Yang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Semiarid Regions ◽

The Impact ◽

Karkheh River Basin

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Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

La Houille Blanche ◽

10.1051/lhb/2018010 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 70-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Le Viet Thang ◽

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Ho Long Phi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

Sediment Load ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

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Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.001658 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 594-606 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Catchment Area ◽

River Basins ◽

Weather Data ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Eastern India ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems. </p> </div> <p> </p>

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Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11082450 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 2450 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Noora Veijalainen ◽

Lauri Ahopelto ◽

Mika Marttunen ◽

Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽

Ritva Britschgi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Supply ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Water Levels ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Economic Sectors ◽

The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11247083 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 7083 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kristian Näschen ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Mariele Evers ◽

Britta Höllermann ◽

Stefanie Steinbach ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

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Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff Generation in an Andean Glacier Watershed

Water ◽

10.3390/w12123547 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 3547

Author(s):

Rossana Escanilla-Minchel ◽

Hernán Alcayaga ◽

Marco Soto-Alvarez ◽

Christophe Kinnard ◽

Roberto Urrutia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Trend ◽

Snow Storage ◽

South Central ◽

Recent Climate ◽

The Impact

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, 3.8% of the world’s glacier area is concentrated in Chile. The country has been strongly affected by the mega drought, which affects the south-central area and has produced an increase in dependence on water resources from snow and glacier melting in dry periods. Recent climate change has led to an elevation of the zero-degree isotherm, a decrease in solid-state precipitation amounts and an accelerated loss of glacier and snow storage in the Chilean Andes. This situation calls for a better understanding of future water discharge in Andean headwater catchments in order to improve water resources management in glacier-fed populated areas. The present study uses hydrological modeling to characterize the hydrological processes occurring in a glacio-nival watershed of the central Andes and to examine the impact of different climate change scenarios on discharge. The study site is the upper sub-watershed of the Tinguiririca River (area: 141 km2), of which nearly 20% is covered by Universidad Glacier. The semi-distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model + Glacier (SRM+G) was forced with local meteorological data to simulate catchment runoff. The model was calibrated on even years and validated on odd years during the 2008–2014 period and found to correctly reproduce daily runoff. The model was then forced with downscaled ensemble projected precipitation and temperature series under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and the glacier adjusted using a volume-area scaling relationship. The results obtained for 2050 indicate a decrease in mean annual discharge (MAD) of 18.1% for the lowest emission scenario and 43.3% for the most pessimistic emission scenario, while for 2100 the MAD decreases by 31.4 and 54.2%, respectively, for each emission scenario. Results show that decreasing precipitation lead to reduced rainfall and snowmelt contributions to discharge. Glacier melt thus partly buffers the drying climate trend, but our results show that the peak water occurs near 2040, after which glacier depletion leads to reducing discharge, threatening the long-term water resource availability in this region.

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Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061762 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1762 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nathan Rickards ◽

Thomas Thomas ◽

Alexandra Kaelin ◽

Helen Houghton-Carr ◽

Sharad K. Jain ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Large Scale ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact ◽

Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

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