Does energy cause ethnic war? East mediterranean and Caspian sea. natural gas and regional conflicts

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 520-521
Author(s):  
Emmanouil M.L. Economou
Author(s):  
S. Habibbayli

After the restoration of the state independence of Azerbaijan, one of the main goals was to use natural resources freely, in the interests of the Azerbaijani people and state. Since the early 1990’s, several western companies have begun to show interest in the energy sources of the Caspian region. In the first years of independence, certain steps were taken to obtain energy resources and bring them to the world market. The “Contract of the Century” concluded on September 20, 1994, with 11 transnational oil companies worldwide, which laid the foundation of the oil strategy proposed by national leader Heydar Aliyev, allowed Azerbaijan to play an important role in the Caucasus and Caspian Sea region, turning it into one of the international centers for the production of energy resources. After the signing of the “Contract of the Century”, the key issue was finding favorable ways for oil and gas transit. The choice of Georgia as a transit country would meet the interests of Azerbaijan. Starting from 1999, the first oil was transported via the Baku-Supsa pipeline, and from 2006 on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export oil pipeline. Transportation of gas, along with oil, is carried out through Georgia. Gas is transported to Georgia by the end of 2006 through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and from June 2007 to Turkey. The Southern Gas Corridor, which is probably the largest gas pipeline project put forward by Azerbaijan, involving Georgia, delivers the Shahdeniz Phase 2 gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe. The South Caucasus Pipeline Project Expansion, part of this project, encompasses the construction of new pipelines and associated facilities in both Azerbaijan and Georgia. The opening ceremony of the first phase of the Southern Gas Corridor project was held at Sangachal Terminal on May 29, 2018. Within the framework of the AGRI (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania Interconnector) project, which is one of the energy projects connecting Azerbaijan and Georgia, it is planned to transport natural gas through the pipeline to the Black Sea shores of Georgia, where it will be liquefied and transported by tankers to the terminal in Romania’s Constanta port and then to the gas infrastructure of Romania and other European countries in the form of natural gas. Georgia is not only a transit country for Azerbaijan, but also one of the largest consumers of hydrocarbon reserves. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has been operating in Georgia since 2006. SOCAR's activities in Georgia are carried out through “SOCAR Georgia Petroleum”, “SOCAR Gas Export-Import”, “SOCAR Georgia Gas”, “SOCAR Georgia Gas Distribution”, “Black Sea Terminal” and others.


Significance The pipeline transit agreement is set to expire at the end of October. It comes as tensions between Morocco and Algeria have escalated, with the latter cutting diplomatic ties with Rabat and closing its airspace to Moroccan airplanes. Impacts Algeria will argue that trans-Morocco gas can be replaced with extra volumes via the Medgaz line and with liquefied natural gas. The supply implications mainly affect Spain and Morocco, and will have little relevance for other European gas projects. In the East Mediterranean, the costs of a pipeline to Europe remain prohibitively high.


2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
S M Rashed Jahangir ◽  
Betul Yuce Dural

Abstract The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth in the Caspian Sea region. Here, the study applies ordinary least square (OLS) method and Granger causality test using time series data from 1997 to 2015 to ascertain the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth. The results, according to the OLS method, evince that crude oil and natural gas have a significant impact on economic growth of the region. Alongside, considering causality test, gross domestic product (GDP) does Granger cause (unidirectional) crude oil price and export which denotes that GDP can help to forecast crude oil price and export; however, crude oil price and export cannot help to forecast GDP. Surprisingly, this direction is unlikely for GDP and natural gas. GDP and natural gas have unidirectional, but opposite causal relationship, i.e., natural gas price and export do Granger cause GDP which signify that natural gas price and export can help to forecast GDP; however, GDP cannot help to forecast crude oil price and export.


2021 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 23-27
Author(s):  
Gulshan Zeynalova Gulshan Zeynalova

The Caspian Sea is the largest body of water in Eurasia: After the collapse of the USSR, the water area of this region is a zone of interest for many states. [1] The Caspian region rightfully serves as one of the most significant regions for most countries interested in the mineral resources that the Caspian is rich in. The Caspian Sea has a significant hydrocarbon reserves. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian basin have the following values: oil - 48 billion barrels of oil, natural gas - 292 trillion. cubic feet (found and probable reserves), of which 75% and 67%, respectively, are produced or may be produced offshore. The northern part of the Caspian Sea contains most of the oil reserves, while the southern sector of the Caspian Sea is rich in natural gas.[2] It should be emphasized that the list of states that have the rights to use the resources of the Caspian Sea is as follows: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. It is impossible to correlate the importance of the oil and gas resources of the Caspian reservoir for each of the above countries, for the following reasons: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are countries for which the hydrocarbon potential of the Caspian is the most important predictor of the formation and development of the economy, while for Kazakhstan, the use of oil and gas resources of the Caspian Sea plays an important , but not the most decisive role, since oil and gas deposits in this country are not limited to the Caspian region, but its economy is developing in other directions. Iran and Russia, however, are interested in influencing the direction of flows of oil and gas raw materials, including their transit through the territory of the countries. [3] The last years for the Caspian region have become the years of a shift in the development of the oil and gas industry of the Caspian "five", which account for 17.6% of oil reserves and 46.4% of gas reserves in terms of global reserves. It is assumed that on the territory of the Caspian shelf, which belongs to Russia, oil reserves amount to 270 million tons, natural gas reserves - 0.5 trillion cubic meters. m of gas. [4] Of course, it is worth noting that the potential of the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea is significantly lower than the oil and gas potential of Yamal or Western Siberia, but the development of this region is important for the strategic development of the oil and gas sector, in particular offshore drilling.


2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1041-1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tolga GENÇ ◽  
Mehmet KABAK ◽  
Eren ÖZCEYLAN ◽  
Cihan ÇETINKAYA

Demand for natural gas has severely challenged the world supply among other types of energy sources such as coal, geothermal, nuclear and etc. Natural gas is the most important form of energy because it is clean, abundant, reliable and versatile. Due to the limited and transportable characterizes of natural gas, sharing pipelines for natural gas with other nations can either bring peace and stability or create chaos. To avoid insoluble strategies, it is very explicit to decide scientifically for these kinds of global issues. To do so, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) – ANP (Analytic Network Process) integrated approach is presented to evaluate natural gas policies for Turkey in terms of East Mediterranean Region. In the first step, the appropriate strategies, SO (strengths-opportunities), ST (strengths-threats), WO (weaknesses-opportunities) and WT (weaknesses-threats) are determined via SWOT analysis including four criteria, 20 sub-criteria and seven strategies. Due to inability of SWOT analysis to prioritize the criteria and rank the strategies, ANP approach which also considers the dependency between criteria is applied in the second step. Finally, the proposed SWOT-ANP approach is compared with other multi criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques to represent the effectiveness and applicability of the model.


Subject Israel's East Mediterranean gas. Significance Israel's natural gas sector had been at a standstill since December 2014 when the anti-trust commissioner (ATC) ordered the dismantling of the natural gas monopoly over concerns that the framework was anti-competitive. When fully developed, the fields will make Israel self-sufficient in gas for decades, and enable gas exports to neighbouring countries and perhaps Europe. Impacts Resolving the impasse is a major political achievement for Netanyahu and his government. Egypt's recent offshore gas discovery will dent potential for Israeli gas exports to Egypt. Egypt will not import Israeli gas for its own domestic market, yet the option of liquefying Israeli gas at Egyptian plants is still alive. Israel's long-term fiscal position will improve dramatically.


Significance Since the sudden end of the three-and-a-half-year ‘Quartet’ boycott in January, Doha has stepped up efforts to normalise relations with formerly hostile Arab countries. It is also pushing ahead with plans for a massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion. Impacts The loss of solidarity in opposing Qatar could expose other regional rifts, notably between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The end of Qatar-Quartet competition should lower tensions in a host of regional conflicts, from Somalia to Libya. Turkey and other recent trade partners could see economic losses as Qatar partially reverts to pre-blockade sourcing.


2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gawdat Bahgat

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, the Caspian Sea region has been seen as a potential major oil and natural gas reservoir. For more than a decade, the five nations that share the Caspian—Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan—have sought to develop the basin’s hydrocarbon resources. This paper provides an assessment of these resources and examines two major hurdles: lack of consensus on the legal status of the Caspian and disagreement of the most cost effective pipeline routes. It argues that oil and natural gas from the Caspian is certain to contribute to global energy security. However, the Caspian Sea should not be seen as a replacement to the Persian Gulf.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elai Rettig

Abstract Does energy securitization promote or hinder regional cooperation over energy resources? This paper argues that policymakers frame energy issues as existential threats to facilitate both outcomes, depending on how they perceive the reliability of their country's energy supply. When countries are confident in their supply, they begin to seek regional cooperation opportunities that they had previously rejected. Rather than abandon existential rhetoric that served to prevent cooperation when supply was vulnerable, policymakers adopt opposing constructs of security and direct them toward different audiences to gain their support. When addressing the international community, policymakers employ neoliberal concepts of security as a mutually beneficial result of trade and cooperation. When addressing domestic audiences, policymakers employ realist paradigms of security as competition toward self-preservation and dominance. Israel serves as a case study to test this argument. This paper examines how major natural gas discoveries in 2009 shifted longstanding Israeli isolationism and encouraged it to seek deeper economic ties with its neighbors. To promote its new policy, the Israeli government argued before its domestic audience that gas exports are essential for creating leverage against the EU and preventing terrorism on its borders, while simultaneously arguing toward foreign audiences that the exports serve to promote regional unity.


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