Simulation of snowmelt-runoff under climate change scenarios in a data-scarce mountain environment

Effects of climate change have led to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature across several areas of the world. This has resulted in a sharp decline of glaciers and an increase in surface runoff in watersheds due to snowmelt. This situation requires a better understanding to improve the management of water resources in settled areas downstream of glaciers. In this study, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was applied in combination with snow-covered area information (SCA), precipitation, and temperature climatic data to model snowmelt runoff in the Santa River sub-basin (Peru). The procedure consisted of calibrating and validating the SRM model for 2005–2009 using the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), observed temperature, precipitation and SAC data. Then, the SRM was applied to project future runoff in the sub-basin under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. SRM patterns show consistent results; runoff decreases in the summer months and increases the rest of the year. The runoff projection under climate change scenarios shows a substantial increase from January to May, reporting the highest increases in March and April, and the lowest records from June to August. The SRM demonstrated consistent projections for the simulation of historical flows in tropical Andean glaciers.

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Distributions of Alien Invasive Weeds under Climate Change Scenarios in Mountainous Bhutan

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy9080442 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 442 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ugyen Thiney ◽

Poramate Banterng ◽

Santimaitree Gonkhamdee ◽

Roengsak Katawatin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Alien Species ◽

Ecological Niche Modeling ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Environmental Parameters ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Parthenium Hysterophorus ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ageratum Conyzoides ◽

Mountain Environment

Climate change is viewed as a cause in accelerating the rate of invasion by alien species in addition to the globalization of anthropogenic activities. Ecological niche modeling has become an instrument in predicting invasion from natural or invaded ranges to uninvaded ranges based on the presence records of organisms and environmental parameters. This study explored the changes in the distributions of globally noxious alien species (Aegratina adenophora, Ageratum conyzoides, Chromolaena odorata, Lantana camara, Mikania micrantha, and Parthenium hysterophorus) in Bhutan, to provide evidence that even a mountain environment is under the threat of invasion given the change in climatic conditions. With fairly high accuracy, the model results suggest that there will be a potential increase in the areas of invasion among most of the species, except Parthenium hysterophorus, which will experience a northerly shift and decline in distribution. The results also indicate changes in patterns of invasion, some becoming more concentrated toward a given direction, while others become more dispersed over time. This study provides a framework that can be used in the strategic control of the species, future detection surveys, and further research.

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Climate Change Scenarios and Effects on Snow-Melt Runoff

Civil Engineering Journal ◽

10.28991/cej-2020-03091577 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (9) ◽

pp. 1715-1725 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Safieh Javadinejad ◽

Rebwar Dara ◽

Forough Jafary

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Snow Melt ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Spring Runoff

Climate change is an important environmental issue, as progression of melting glaciers and snow cover is sensitive to climate alteration. The aim of this research was to model climate alterations forecasts, and to assess potential changes in snow cover and snow-melt runoff under the different climate change scenarios in the case study of the Zayandeh-rud River Basin. Three cluster models for climate change (NorESM1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CSIRO-MK3.6.0) were applied under RCP 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios, to examine climate influences on precipitation and temperature in the basin. Temperature and precipitation were determined for all three scenarios for four periods of 2021-2030, 2031-2040, 2041-2050 and 2051-2060. MODIS (MOD10A1) was also applied to examine snow cover using temperature and precipitation data. The relationship between snow-covered area, temperature and precipitation was used to forecast future snow cover. For modeling future snow melt runoff, a hydrologic model of SRM was used including input data of precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The results indicated that all three RCP scenarios lead to an increase in temperature, and reduction in precipitation and snow cover. Investigation in snowmelt runoff throughout the observation period (November 1970 to May 2006) showed that most of annual runoff is derived from snow melting. Maximum snowmelt runoff is generated in winter. The share of melt water in the autumn and spring runoff is estimated at 35 and 53%, respectively. The results of this study can assist water manager in making better decisions for future water supply.

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Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2013/808565 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-9 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Yonggang Ma ◽

Yue Huang ◽

Xi Chen ◽

Yongping Li ◽

Anming Bao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Northwest China ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Watershed Hydrology ◽

Climate Data ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

The Impact

An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM). The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF) and water balance coefficient (RE). The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region

10.20944/preprints202112.0213.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rohitashw Kumar ◽

Saika Manzoor ◽

Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma ◽

N. L. Kushwaha ◽

Ahmed Elbeltagi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Model Performance ◽

High Elevation ◽

Himalayan Region ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Mountain Environments ◽

Elevation Data

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

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