scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohitashw Kumar ◽  
Saika Manzoor ◽  
Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma ◽  
N. L. Kushwaha ◽  
Ahmed Elbeltagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Elevation Data

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Current and Future Distribution of the Endangered Endemic Vascular Plant Primula boveana Decne. ex Duby in Egypt

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 957
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abdelaal ◽  
Mauro Fois ◽  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Gianluigi Bacchetta ◽  
Ghada A. El-Sherbeny
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Vascular Plant ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Environmental Predictors ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Best Fitting

Knowledge about population attributes, current geographic distribution, and changes over predicted climate change for many threatened endemic vascular plants is particularly limited in arid mountain environments. Primula boveana is one of the rarest and threatened plants worldwide, surviving exclusively in Saint Catherine Protectorate in the Sinaic biogeographic subsector of Egypt. This study aimed to define the current state of P. boveana populations, predict its current potential distribution, and use the best-model outputs to guide in field sampling and to forecast its future distribution under two climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt algorithm was used by relating 10 occurrence-points with different environmental predictors (27 bioclimatic, 3 topographic, and 8 edaphic factors). At the current knowledge level, the population size of P. boveana consists of 796 individuals, including 137 matures, distributed in only 250 m2. The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCorA) displayed that population attributes (density, cover, size index, and plant vigor) were positively correlated with elevation, precipitation, and pH. Based on the best-fitting model, most predicted suitable central sites (69 km2) of P. boveana were located in the cool shaded high-elevated middle northern part of St. Catherine. Elevation, precipitation, temperature, and soil pH were the key contributors to P. boveana distribution in Egypt. After field trips in suitable predicted sites, we confirmed five extinct localities where P. boveana has been previously recorded and no new population was found. The projected map showed an upward range shift through the contraction of sites between 1800 and 2000 m and expansion towards high elevation (above 2000 m) at the southern parts of the St. Catherine area. To conserve P. boveana, it is recommended to initiate in situ conservation through reinforcement and reintroduction actions.

scholarly journals Effects of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 4565-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Sanz-Lázaro ◽  
T. Valdemarsen ◽  
M. Holmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Organic Pollution ◽  
Coastal Sediments ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems. In these systems sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient release from coastal sediments to the water column in a mesocosm experiment. PO43− release rates from sediments followed the same trends as organic matter mineralization rates, increased linearly with temperature and were significantly higher under organic pollution than under nonpolluted conditions. NH4+ release only increased significantly when the temperature rise was above 6 °C, and it was significantly higher in organic polluted compared to nonpolluted sediments. Nutrient release to the water column was only a fraction from the mineralized organic matter, suggesting PO43− retention and NH4+ oxidation in the sediment. Bioturbation and bioirrigation appeared to be key processes responsible for this behavior. Considering that the primary production of most marine basins is N-limited, the excess release of NH4+ at a temperature rise > 6 °C could enhance water column primary productivity, which may lead to the deterioration of the environmental quality. Climate change effects are expected to be accelerated in areas affected by organic pollution.

scholarly journals Modelling Snowmelt Runoff from Tropical Andean Glaciers under Climate Change Scenarios in the Santa River Sub-Basin (Peru)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3535
Author(s):  
Elmer Calizaya ◽  
Abel Mejía ◽  
Elgar Barboza ◽  
Fredy Calizaya ◽  
Fernando Corroto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Andean Glaciers ◽  
Elevation Model

Effects of climate change have led to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature across several areas of the world. This has resulted in a sharp decline of glaciers and an increase in surface runoff in watersheds due to snowmelt. This situation requires a better understanding to improve the management of water resources in settled areas downstream of glaciers. In this study, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was applied in combination with snow-covered area information (SCA), precipitation, and temperature climatic data to model snowmelt runoff in the Santa River sub-basin (Peru). The procedure consisted of calibrating and validating the SRM model for 2005–2009 using the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), observed temperature, precipitation and SAC data. Then, the SRM was applied to project future runoff in the sub-basin under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. SRM patterns show consistent results; runoff decreases in the summer months and increases the rest of the year. The runoff projection under climate change scenarios shows a substantial increase from January to May, reporting the highest increases in March and April, and the lowest records from June to August. The SRM demonstrated consistent projections for the simulation of historical flows in tropical Andean glaciers.

scholarly journals Earlier Snowmelt Advances Breeding Phenology of the Common Frog (Rana temporaria) but Increases the Risk of Frost Exposure and Wetland Drying

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjorie Bison ◽  
Nigel G. Yoccoz ◽  
Bradley Z. Carlson ◽  
Geoffrey Klein ◽  
Idaline Laigle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rana Temporaria ◽  
Larval Mortality ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Common Frog ◽  
Breeding Phenology ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
The Future ◽  
Drying Up ◽  
The Common

The alarming decline of amphibians around the world calls for complementary studies to better understand their responses to climate change. In mountain environments, water resources linked to snowmelt play a major role in allowing amphibians to complete tadpole metamorphosis. As snow cover duration has significantly decreased since the 1970s, amphibian populations could be strongly impacted by climate warming, and even more in high elevation sites where air temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than at low elevation. In this context, we investigated common frog (Rana temporaria) breeding phenology at two different elevations and explored the threats that this species faces in a climate change context. Our objectives were to understand how environmental variables influence the timing of breeding phenology of the common frog, and explore the threats that amphibians face in the context of climate change in mountain areas. To address these questions, we collected 11 years (2009–2019) of data on egg-spawning date, tadpole development stages, snowmelt date, air temperature, rainfall and drying up of wetland pools at ∼1,300 and ∼1,900 m a.s.l. in the French Alps. We found an advancement of the egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at low elevation but a delay at high elevations for both variables. Our results demonstrated a strong positive relationship between egg-spawning date and snowmelt date at both elevations. We also observed that the risk of frost exposure increased faster at high elevation as egg-spawning date advanced than at low elevation, and that drying up of wetland pools led to tadpole mortality at the high elevation site. Within the context of climate change, egg-spawning date is expected to happen earlier in the future and eggs and tadpoles of common frogs may face higher risk of frost exposure, while wetland drying may lead to higher larval mortality. However, population dynamics studies are needed to test these hypotheses and to assess impacts at the population level. Our results highlight climate-related threats to common frog populations in mountain environments, but additional research should be conducted to forecast how climate change may benefit or harm amphibian populations, and inform conservation and land management plans in the future.

scholarly journals Effects of global climate change and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-49
Author(s):  
C. Sanz-Lázaro ◽  
T. Valdemarsen ◽  
M. Holmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Organic Pollution ◽  
Coastal Sediments ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems, where sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios especially when the interactions among drivers may not be just additive. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient release from coastal sediments to the water column in a mesocosm experiment. PO43− release rates from sediments followed the same trends as organic matter mineralization rates, and increased linearly with temperature and were significantly higher under organic pollution than under non-polluted conditions. NH4+ release only increased significantly when the temperature rise was above 6 °C, and was significantly higher in organic polluted compared to non-polluted sediments. Nutrient release to the water column was only a fraction from the mineralized organic matter, suggesting PO43− retention and NH4+ oxidation in the sediment. Bioturbation and bioirrigation appeared to be key processes responsible of this behaviour. Considering that the primary production of most marine basins is N-limited, the excess release of NH4+ at temperature rise >6 ° could enhance water column primary productivity, which may lead to the deterioration of the environmental quality. Climate change effects are expected to be accelerated in areas affected by organic pollution.

scholarly journals Coupling Remote Sensing and Hydrological Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in Data-Scarce Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 14025
Author(s):  
Fazlullah Akhtar ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Christian Borgemeister ◽  
Bernhard Tischbein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

Seasonal and Long-Term Changes to Pavement Life Caused by Rising Temperatures from Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 267-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayne F. Knott ◽  
Jo E. Sias ◽  
Eshan V. Dave ◽  
Jennifer M. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Pavement Damage ◽  
The Impact

Pavements are vulnerable to reduced life with climate-change-induced temperature rise. Greenhouse gas emissions have caused an increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century and the warming is projected to accelerate. Many studies have characterized this risk with a top-down approach in which climate-change scenarios are chosen and applied to predict pavement-life reduction. This approach is useful in identifying possible pavement futures but may miss short-term or seasonal pavement-response trends that are essential for adaptation planning. A bottom-up approach focuses on a pavement’s response to incremental temperature change resulting in a more complete understanding of temperature-induced pavement damage. In this study, a hybrid bottom-up/top-down approach was used to quantify the impact of changing pavement seasons and temperatures on pavement life with incremental temperature rise from 0 to 5°C at a site in coastal New Hampshire. Changes in season length, seasonal average temperatures, and temperature-dependent resilient modulus were used in layered-elastic analysis to simulate the pavement’s response to temperature rise. Projected temperature rise from downscaled global climate models was then superimposed on the results to determine the timing of the effects. The winter pavement season is projected to end by mid-century, replaced by a lengthening fall season. Seasonal pavement damage, currently dominated by the late spring and summer seasons, is projected to be distributed more evenly throughout the year as temperatures rise. A 7% to 32% increase in the asphalt-layer thickness is recommended to protect the base and subgrade with rising temperatures from early century to late-mid-century.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Til Prasad Pangali Sharma ◽  
Jiahua Zhang ◽  
Narendra Raj Khanal ◽  
Foyez Ahmed Prodhan ◽  
Basanta Paudel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Satellite Remote Sensing ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Sensing Data ◽  
Runoff Model

The Himalayan region, a major source of fresh water, is recognized as a water tower of the world. Many perennial rivers originate from Nepal Himalaya, located in the central part of the Himalayan region. Snowmelt water is essential freshwater for living, whereas it poses flood disaster potential, which is a major challenge for sustainable development. Climate change also largely affects snowmelt hydrology. Therefore, river discharge measurement requires crucial attention in the face of climate change, particularly in the Himalayan region. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) is a frequently used method to measure river discharge in snow-fed mountain river basins. This study attempts to investigate snowmelt contribution in the overall discharge of the Budhi Gandaki River Basin (BGRB) using satellite remote sensing data products through the application of the SRM model. The model outputs were validated based on station measured river discharge data. The results show that SRM performed well in the study basin with a coefficient of determination (R2) >0.880. Moreover, this study found that the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological datasets are highly applicable to the SRM in the Himalayan region. The study also shows that snow days have slightly decreased in the last three years, hence snowmelt contribution in overall discharge has decreased slightly in the study area. Finally, this study concludes that MOD10A2 and ECMWF precipitation and two-meter temperature products are highly applicable to measure snowmelt and associated discharge through SRM in the BGRB. Moreover, it also helps with proper freshwater planning, efficient use of winter water flow, and mitigating and preventive measures for the flood disaster.

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