scholarly journals Climate Change Scenarios and Effects on Snow-Melt Runoff

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 1715-1725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Safieh Javadinejad ◽  
Rebwar Dara ◽  
Forough Jafary
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spring Runoff

Climate change is an important environmental issue, as progression of melting glaciers and snow cover is sensitive to climate alteration. The aim of this research was to model climate alterations forecasts, and to assess potential changes in snow cover and snow-melt runoff under the different climate change scenarios in the case study of the Zayandeh-rud River Basin. Three cluster models for climate change (NorESM1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CSIRO-MK3.6.0) were applied under RCP 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios, to examine climate influences on precipitation and temperature in the basin. Temperature and precipitation were determined for all three scenarios for four periods of 2021-2030, 2031-2040, 2041-2050 and 2051-2060. MODIS (MOD10A1) was also applied to examine snow cover using temperature and precipitation data. The relationship between snow-covered area, temperature and precipitation was used to forecast future snow cover. For modeling future snow melt runoff, a hydrologic model of SRM was used including input data of precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The results indicated that all three RCP scenarios lead to an increase in temperature, and reduction in precipitation and snow cover. Investigation in snowmelt runoff throughout the observation period (November 1970 to May 2006) showed that most of annual runoff is derived from snow melting. Maximum snowmelt runoff is generated in winter. The share of melt water in the autumn and spring runoff is estimated at 35 and 53%, respectively. The results of this study can assist water manager in making better decisions for future water supply.

The Effect of Climate Change on River Flow and Snow Cover in the NOPEX Area Simulated by a Simple Water Balance Model

1997 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 273-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
C-Y Xu ◽  
Sven Halldin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

Within the next few decades, changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns may appear, especially at high latitudes. A simple monthly water-balance model of the NOPEX basins was developed and used for the purposes of investigating the effects on water availability of changes in climate. Eleven case study catchments were used together with a number of climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on average annual runoff depended on the ratio of average annual runoff to average annual precipitation, with the greatest sensitivity in the catchments with lowest runoff coefficients. A 20% increase in annual precipitation resulted in an increase in annual runoff ranging from 31% to 51%. The greatest changes in monthly runoff were in winter (from December to March) whereas the smallest changes were found in summer. The time of the highest spring flow changed from April to March. An increase in temperature by 4°C greatly shortened the time of snow cover and the snow accumulation period. The maximum amount of snow during these short winters diminished by 50% for the NOPEX area even with an assumed increase of total precipitation by 20%.

Spring Snowmelt Flood Estimate in the Upper Heihe River under Climate Change Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangxi Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spring Runoff ◽  
Flood Intensity

<p>With the climate warming, high mountainous areas, including cryosphere, show more frequent and early outbreaks trend in flood hazard, cursing more losses to downstream areas. Based on meteorological, hydrological and MODIS snow cover data, using the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to simulate and verify the spring runoff result during the snowmelt period from 1990 to 2012 in the upper Heihe River. SRM model simulates results shows it has a high accuracy (NSE = 0.7229), which can be used to predict the future flood intensity changes in studying area. In order to predict the trends of Heihe River Basin in flood return periods under the different future climate change scenarios, analyze used the temperature and precipitation forecast data. By the end of this century, the result of flood runoff shows differently according to climate change scenarios compared with the basic period. In RCP 2.6, due to the small changes of the temperature and precipitation, flood intensity will change slightly around 10% in all return periods; in RCP 4.5, it will increase about 20%; in RCP 8.5, return periods may be rise over 30%.</p>

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals IMPACTS OF SNOWMELT AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON HIMALAYAN RIVERS: THE CASE OF DATA-SCARCE DUDHKOSHI RIVER IN EASTERN NEPAL

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeep Pokhrel ◽  
Saraswati Thapa
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Snow Hydrology ◽  
Statistical Downscaling Model ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Runoff Model

Water from snow-melt is crucial to provide ecosystem services in downstream of the Himalayas. To study the fate of snow hydrology, an integrated modeling system has been developed coupling Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in the Dudhkoshi Basin, Nepal. The SRM model is well-calibrated in 2011 and validated in 2012 and 2014 using MODIS satellite data. The annual average observed and simulated discharges for the calibration year are 177.89 m3 /s and 181.47 m3 /s respectively. To assess future climate projections for the periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, the SDSM model is used for downscaling precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature from the Canadian GCM model (CanESM2) under three different scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. All considered scenarios are significant in predicting increasing trends of maximumminimum temperature and precipitation and the storehouse of freshwater in the mountains is expected to deplete rapidly if global warming continues.

scholarly journals Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Moo-Llanes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Complex Disease ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Neotropical Region ◽  
World Health ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

scholarly journals Decreased Snow Cover Stimulates Under-Ice Primary Producers but Impairs Methanotrophic Capacity

mSphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarahi L. Garcia ◽  
Anna J. Szekely ◽  
Christoffer Bergvall ◽  
Martha Schattenhofer ◽  
Sari Peura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Heterotrophic Bacteria ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Boreal Lakes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Primary Producers ◽  
Microbial Composition

ABSTRACT Climate change scenarios anticipate decreased spring snow cover in boreal and subarctic regions. Forest lakes are abundant in these regions and substantial contributors of methane emissions. To investigate the effect of reduced snow cover, we experimentally removed snow from an anoxic frozen lake. We observed that the removal of snow increased light penetration through the ice, increasing water temperature and modifying microbial composition in the different depths. Chlorophyll a and b concentrations increased in the upper water column, suggesting activation of algal primary producers. At the same time, Chlorobiaceae, one of the key photosynthetic bacterial families in anoxic lakes, shifted to lower depths. Moreover, a decrease in the relative abundance of methanotrophs within the bacterial family Methylococcaceae was detected, concurrent with an increase in methane concentration in the water column. These results indicate that decreased snow cover impacts both primary production and methane production and/or consumption, which may ultimately lead to increased methane emissions after spring ice off. IMPORTANCE Small lakes are an important source of greenhouse gases in the boreal zone. These lakes are severely impacted by the winter season, when ice and snow cover obstruct gas exchange between the lake and the atmosphere and diminish light availability in the water column. Currently, climate change is resulting in reduced spring snow cover. A short-term removal of the snow from the ice stimulated algal primary producers and subsequently heterotrophic bacteria. Concurrently, the relative abundance of methanotrophic bacteria decreased and methane concentrations increased. Our results increase the general knowledge of microbial life under ice and, specifically, the understanding of the potential impact of climate change on boreal lakes.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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