A constrained distributed time-series neural network MPC approach for HVAC system energy saving in a medium-large building

It is important to predict a time series because many problems that are related to prediction such as health prediction problem, climate change prediction problem and weather prediction problem include a time component. To solve the time series prediction problem various techniques have been developed over many years to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. This paper presents a review of the prediction of physical time series applications using the neural network models. Neural Networks (NN) have appeared as an effective tool for forecasting of time series. Moreover, to resolve the problems related to time series data, there is a need of network with single layer trainable weights that is Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) which can perform nonlinearity mapping of input-output. So, the developers are focusing on HONN that has been recently considered to develop the input representation spaces broadly. The HONN model has the ability of functional mapping which determined through some time series problems and it shows the more benefits as compared to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The goal of this research is to present the reader awareness about HONN for physical time series prediction, to highlight some benefits and challenges using HONN.

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Detecting Predictable Segments of Chaotic Financial Time Series via Neural Network

Electronics ◽

10.3390/electronics9050823 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 823

Author(s):

Tianle Zhou ◽

Chaoyi Chu ◽

Chaobin Xu ◽

Weihao Liu ◽

Hao Yu

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Phase Space ◽

Financial Market ◽

Financial Time Series ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Series Data ◽

Phase Point ◽

Price Fluctuations ◽

Financial Time

In this study, a new idea is proposed to analyze the financial market and detect price fluctuations, by integrating the technology of PSR (phase space reconstruction) and SOM (self organizing maps) neural network algorithms. The prediction of price and index in the financial market has always been a challenging and significant subject in time-series studies, and the prediction accuracy or the sensitivity of timely warning price fluctuations plays an important role in improving returns and avoiding risks for investors. However, it is the high volatility and chaotic dynamics of financial time series that constitute the most significantly influential factors affecting the prediction effect. As a solution, the time series is first projected into a phase space by PSR, and the phase tracks are then sliced into several parts. SOM neural network is used to cluster the phase track parts and extract the linear components in each embedded dimension. After that, LSTM (long short-term memory) is used to test the results of clustering. When there are multiple linear components in the m-dimension phase point, the superposition of these linear components still remains the linear property, and they exhibit order and periodicity in phase space, thereby providing a possibility for time series prediction. In this study, the Dow Jones index, Nikkei index, China growth enterprise market index and Chinese gold price are tested to determine the validity of the model. To summarize, the model has proven itself able to mark the unpredictable time series area and evaluate the unpredictable risk by using 1-dimension time series data.

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Particle Swarm optimization based Neural Network Model for Chaotic Time Series Forecasting

2020 12th International Conference on Advanced Computational Intelligence (ICACI) ◽

10.1109/icaci49185.2020.9177737 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xin Li ◽

Weijie Ren ◽

Jingying Zhao ◽

Min Han

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Particle Swarm Optimization ◽

Network Model ◽

Neural Network Model ◽

Particle Swarm ◽

Time Series Forecasting ◽

Chaotic Time Series ◽

Swarm Optimization

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Hybrid Model for Time Series of Complex Structure with ARIMA Components

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math9101122 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (10) ◽

pp. 1122

Author(s):

Oksana Mandrikova ◽

Nadezhda Fetisova ◽

Yuriy Polozov

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Hybrid Model ◽

Complex Structure ◽

Arima Model ◽

Ionospheric Parameter ◽

Arima Models ◽

Complicated Structure ◽

Threshold Functions ◽

Anomalous Component

A hybrid model for the time series of complex structure (HMTS) was proposed. It is based on the combination of function expansions in a wavelet series with ARIMA models. HMTS has regular and anomalous components. The time series components, obtained after expansion, have a simpler structure that makes it possible to identify the ARIMA model if the components are stationary. This allows us to obtain a more accurate ARIMA model for a time series of complicated structure and to extend the area for application. To identify the HMTS anomalous component, threshold functions are applied. This paper describes a technique to identify HMTS and proposes operations to detect anomalies. With the example of an ionospheric parameter time series, we show the HMTS efficiency, describe the results and their application in detecting ionospheric anomalies. The HMTS was compared with the nonlinear autoregression neural network NARX, which confirmed HMTS efficiency.

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Using Convolutional Neural Network and Candlestick Representation to Predict Sports Match Outcomes

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11146594 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (14) ◽

pp. 6594

Author(s):

Yu-Chia Hsu

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Pattern Recognition ◽

Logistic Regression ◽

Regression Model ◽

Convolutional Neural Network ◽

Logistic Regression Model ◽

National Football League ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Betting Market

The interdisciplinary nature of sports and the presence of various systemic and non-systemic factors introduce challenges in predicting sports match outcomes using a single disciplinary approach. In contrast to previous studies that use sports performance metrics and statistical models, this study is the first to apply a deep learning approach in financial time series modeling to predict sports match outcomes. The proposed approach has two main components: a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier for implicit pattern recognition and a logistic regression model for match outcome judgment. First, the raw data used in the prediction are derived from the betting market odds and actual scores of each game, which are transformed into sports candlesticks. Second, CNN is used to classify the candlesticks time series on a graphical basis. To this end, the original 1D time series are encoded into 2D matrix images using Gramian angular field and are then fed into the CNN classifier. In this way, the winning probability of each matchup team can be derived based on historically implied behavioral patterns. Third, to further consider the differences between strong and weak teams, the CNN classifier adjusts the probability of winning the match by using the logistic regression model and then makes a final judgment regarding the match outcome. We empirically test this approach using 18,944 National Football League game data spanning 32 years and find that using the individual historical data of each team in the CNN classifier for pattern recognition is better than using the data of all teams. The CNN in conjunction with the logistic regression judgment model outperforms the CNN in conjunction with SVM, Naïve Bayes, Adaboost, J48, and random forest, and its accuracy surpasses that of betting market prediction.

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