scholarly journals The Modelling of Heteroscedastics IDR-USD Exchange Rate with Intervention and Outlier Factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 2084 (1) ◽  
pp. 012002
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Dhika Yudistira ◽  
Sapto Wahyu Indratno ◽  
Wan Fairos Wan Yaacob
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Result ◽  
Data Modelling ◽  
The Stability

Abstract The nonstationary in time series data may be caused by the existence of intervention, outliers, and heteroscedastic effects. The outliers can represent an intervention so that it creates a heteroscedastic process. This research investigates the involvements of these three factors in time series data modelling. It is also reviewed how long the effects of the intervention and outliersfactors will last. The weekly IDR-USD exchange rate in period of May 2015 to April 2020 be evaluated. It is obtained that ARIMA model with the intervention factor gives the best re-estimation result, with smallest average of errors squared. Meanwhile for prediction, the heteroscedastic effect combined with outlier factors gives better results with the lowest percentage of errors. One of the phenomenal interventions in this data is the Covid-19 pandemic, which was started in Indonesia on March 2020. It is found that the effect of the intervention lasts less than five months and the prediction shows that the volatility of IDR-USD exchange rate starts to decline. This shows the stability of the process is starting to be maintained.

scholarly journals New hybrid fuzzy time series model: Forecasting the foreign exchange market

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
José Eduardo Medina Reyes ◽  
Salvador Cruz Aké ◽  
Agustín Ignacio Cabrera Llanos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Exchange Market

<span class="fontstyle0">This paper develops the comparison of the volatility prediction of the traditional<br />models (ARIMA, EGARCH, and PARCH), with respect to the Hybrid Fuzzy Time<br />Series and Fuzzy ARIMA Model of Tseng’s and Tanaka’s methodology (FTS-Fuzzy<br />ARIMA Tseng and FTS-Fuzzy ARIMA Tanaka). For this purpose, it applies to the<br />time series of the foreign exchange market to forecast the foreign currency exchange rate of Mexican Pesos against American Dollar, the growth rate of the time series data in a daily format from January 2008 to December 2017, to perform the sample test is used January 2018. The main result is that the models based on fuzzy theory generate a better estimate of the volatility of the foreign exchange rate.</span> <br /><br />

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

scholarly journals MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AS AN ELEMENT OF PLANNING RAIL TRANSPORT STRATEGIES

Transport ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-363
Author(s):  
Anna Borucka ◽  
Dariusz Mazurkiewicz ◽  
Eliza Łagowska
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Rail Transport ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Passenger Transport

Effective planning and optimization of rail transport operations depends on effective and reliable forecasting of demand. The results of transport performance forecasts usually differ from measured values because the mathematical models used are inadequate. In response to this applicative need, we report the results of a study whose goal was to develop, on the basis of historical data, an effective mathematical model of rail passenger transport performance that would allow to make reliable forecasts of future demand for this service. Several models dedicated to this type of empirical data were proposed and selection criteria were established. The models used in the study are: the seasonal naive model, the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model, the exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trigonometric trend and seasonal components (TBATS) model, and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The proposed time series identification and forecasting methods are dedicated to the processing of time series data with trend and seasonality. Then, the best model was identified and its accuracy and effectiveness were assessed. It was noticed that investigated time series is characterized by strong seasonality and an upward trend. This information is important for planning a development strategy for rail passenger transport, because it shows that additional investments and engagement in the development of both transport infrastructure and superstructure are required to meet the existing demand. Finally, a forecast of transport performance in sequential periods of time was presented. Such forecast may significantly improve the system of scheduling train journeys and determining the level of demand for rolling stock depending on the season and the annual rise in passenger numbers, increasing the effectiveness of management of rail transport.

scholarly journals Studying monthly rainfall over Dibrugarh, Assam: Use of SARIMA approach

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
J. HAZARIKA ◽  
B. PATHAK ◽  
A. N. PATOWARY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average Model

Perceptive the rainfall pattern is tough for the solution of several regional environmental issues of water resources management, with implications for agriculture, climate change, and natural calamity such as floods and droughts. Statistical computing, modeling and forecasting data are key instruments for studying these patterns. The study of time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in hydrology and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, an attempt has been made to use Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for monthly rainfall data taken from Dibrugarh for the period of 1980- 2014 with a total of 420 points.  We investigated and found that ARIMA (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model is suitable for the given data set. As such this model can be used to forecast the pattern of monthly rainfall for the upcoming years, which can help the decision makers to establish priorities in terms of agricultural, flood, water demand management etc.  

On the Constancy of Hedonic Wine Price Coefficients over Time

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoît Faye ◽  
Eric Le Fur
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hedonic Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractThis article tests the stability of the main hedonic wine price coefficients over time. We draw on an extensive literature review to identify the most frequently used methodology and define a standard hedonic model. We estimate this model on monthly subsamples of a worldwide auction database of the most commonly exchanged fine wines. This provides, for each attribute, a monthly time series of hedonic coefficients time series data from 2003 to 2014. Using a multivariate autoregressive model, we then study the stability of these coefficients over time and test the existence of structural or cyclical changes related to fluctuations in general price levels. We find that most hedonic coefficients are variable and either exhibit structural or cyclical variations over time. These findings shed doubt on the relevance of both short- and long-run hedonic estimations. (JEL Classifications: C13, C22, D44, G11)

scholarly journals Market model analysis and forecasting behavior of watermelon production in Bangladesh

2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Murshida Khanam ◽  
Umme Hafsa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Log Linear

An attempt has been made to study various models regarding watermelon production in Bangladesh and to identify the best model that may be used for forecasting purposes. Here, supply, log linear, ARIMA, MARMA models have been used to do a statistical analysis and forecasting behavior of production of watermelon in Bangladesh by using time series data covering whole Bangladesh. It has been found that, between the supply and log linear models; log linear is the best model. Comparing ARIMA and MARMA models it has been concluded that ARIMA model is the best for forecasting purposes. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/bjsr.v26i1-2.20230 Bangladesh J. Sci. Res. 26(1-2): 47-56, December-2013

scholarly journals Medical service demand forecasting using a hybrid model based on ARIMA and self-adaptive filtering method

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yihuai Huang ◽  
Chao Xu ◽  
Mengzhong Ji ◽  
Wei Xiang ◽  
Da He
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Adaptive Filtering ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hybrid Prediction ◽  
Service Demand ◽  
Filtering Method

Abstract Background Accurate forecasting of medical service demand is beneficial for the reasonable healthcare resource planning and allocation. The daily outpatient volume is characterized by randomness, periodicity and trend, and the time series methods, like ARIMA are often used for short-term outpatient visits forecasting. Therefore, to further enlarge the prediction horizon and improve the prediction accuracy, a hybrid prediction model integrating ARIMA and self-adaptive filtering method is proposed. Methods The ARIMA model is first used to identify the features like cyclicity and trend of the time series data and to estimate the model parameters. The parameters are then adjusted by the steepest descent algorithm in the adaptive filtering method to reduce the prediction error. The hybrid model is validated and compared with traditional ARIMA by several test sets from the Time Series Data Library (TSDL), a weekly emergency department (ED) visit case from literature study, and the real cases of prenatal examinations and B-ultrasounds in a maternal and child health care center (MCHCC) in Ningbo. Results For TSDL cases the prediction accuracy of the hybrid prediction is improved by 80–99% compared with the ARIMA model. For the weekly ED visit case, the forecasting results of the hybrid model are better than those of both traditional ARIMA and ANN model, and similar to the ANN combined data decomposition model mentioned in the literature. For the actual data of MCHCC in Ningbo, the MAPE predicted by the ARIMA model in the two departments was 18.53 and 27.69%, respectively, and the hybrid models were 2.79 and 1.25%, respectively. Conclusions The hybrid prediction model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model in both accurate predicting result with smaller average relative error and the applicability for short-term and medium-term prediction.

scholarly journals Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 1118-1129 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. WANG ◽  
C. DENG ◽  
J. P. LI ◽  
Y. Y. ZHANG ◽  
X. Y. LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
And Control

SUMMARYTuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

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