scholarly journals Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 114010
Author(s):  
Stephanie T Waldhoff ◽  
Ian Sue Wing ◽  
James Edmonds ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Xuesong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Agricultural Yields

scholarly journals Process-Based Modeling of the High Flow of a Semi-Mountain River under Current and Future Climatic Conditions: A Case Study of the Iya River (Eastern Siberia)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1042
Author(s):  
Andrey Kalugin
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Annual Peak

The purpose of the study was to analyze the formation conditions of catastrophic floods in the Iya River basin over the observation period, as well as a long-term forecast of the impacts of future climate change on the characteristics of the high flow in the 21st century. The semi-distributed process-based Ecological Model for Applied Geophysics (ECOMAG) was applied to the Iya River basin. Successful model testing results were obtained for daily discharge, annual peak discharge, and discharges exceeding the critical water level threshold over the multiyear period of 1970–2019. Modeling of the high flow of the Iya River was carried out according to a Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.91, a percent bias (PBIAS) of −1%, and a ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) of 0.41. The preflood coefficient of water-saturated soil and the runoff coefficient of flood-forming precipitation in the Iya River basin were calculated in 1980, 1984, 2006, and 2019. Possible changes in the characteristics of high flow over summers in the 21st century were calculated using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) as the boundary conditions in the runoff generation model. Anomalies in values were estimated for the middle and end of the current century relative to the observed runoff over the period 1990–2019. According to various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-scenarios) of the future climate in the Iya River basin, there will be less change in the annual peak discharge or precipitation and more change in the hazardous flow and its duration, exceeding the critical water level threshold, at which residential buildings are flooded.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seshagiri Rao Kolusu ◽  
Christian Siderius ◽  
Martin C. Todd ◽  
Ajay Bhave ◽  
Declan Conway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
Model Weighting

AbstractUncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed ‘good practice’ on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to ‘high stakes’ investment decisions across the ‘water-energy-food’ sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more ‘aggressive’ model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

Turning the Big Knob: An Evaluation of the Use of Energy Policy to Modulate Future Climate Impacts

2000 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger A. Pielke ◽  
Roberta Klein ◽  
Daniel Sarewitz
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

scholarly journals PLASIM-ENTSem: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 3349-3380 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Holden ◽  
N. R. Edwards ◽  
P. H. Garthwaite ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
F. Lunkeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS. Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, and the validation of the results against empirical data and higher-complexity models. We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sgubin ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Nathalie Ollat ◽  
Cornelis van Leeuwen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Impact

A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document