scholarly journals Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Sven Norman Willner ◽  
Christian Otto ◽  
Kilian Kuhla ◽  
Lennart Quante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Shock Propagation ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Demand Reduction ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Interactions

Abstract Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7,000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.

Simulating the global economic ripples after a major hurricane — the case of Hurricane Sandy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Sven N. Willnera ◽  
Christian Otto ◽  
Kilian Kuhla ◽  
Lennart Quante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Shock Propagation ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Demand Reduction ◽  
Three Phase ◽  
The Us ◽  
Major Hurricane

Abstract Tropical cyclones range among the most severe disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. To find these repercussions in data is challenging due to the strong volatility of economic interactions. Numerical simulations can help to identify these ripples by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle isolating the effect of interest. We here simulate possible global repercussions for the example case of Hurricane Sandy (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. It models the behaviour of over 7,000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial demand reduction and price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience stronger magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Throughout the three phases the model suggests overall a global consumption loss (~ 0.03%) with the strongest impact onto the US itself (~ 0.14%).

Analysis Techniques for Modeling the Pressure Wave Effects of Guillotine Ruptures of Steam Lines

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Becht ◽  
Frederick J. Moody
Keyword(s):  
Shock Wave ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Shock Propagation ◽  
Cfd Model ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Wave Effects ◽  
Fluid Properties ◽  
Potential Damage ◽  
Pipe Geometry ◽  
Propagation Properties

The rupture of a pipe containing gas or steam at high pressure will cause a shock wave. In order to assess the potential damage that such a shock wave may cause to the surrounding structures, systems and components, it is necessary to determine the amplitude and propagation properties of the shock. A CFD model has been developed for the purpose of predicting shock propagation transients resulting from a sudden pipe rupture in terms of the fluid properties, pipe geometry, and surroundings. A simplified shock propagation model also is included, which offers verification of the CFD model results.

Problem of Yuan Undervaluation in US-China Trade Relations

2012 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
A. Polivach
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Scientific Validity ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
World Economic Crisis

Before the world economic crisis the Chinese government restricted the sphere of the Yuan’s circulation exceptionally by the domestic market. Basically, until that time the Yuan was not freely convertible while the Chinese foreign trade transactions were operated with the help of the US dollar. This is a sufficient reason to state that the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate has no fundamental relevance. However, the crisis forced China to substantially extend the utilization of its national currency in the international settlements. This is especially true in case of mutual settlements with the neighbor countries. So far, presumably, the issue of Yuan’s underestimated exchange rate will, at last, receive a scientific validity only when the Chinese national currency will become fully convertible and the scales of its utilization will become comparable with those of the traditional hard currencies.

scholarly journals Trade relations between the US and China

1971 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 283-285
Author(s):  
Bernd Kunze
Keyword(s):  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals A Model for Companies to Overcome US–China Conflict on International Trade

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Miguel Sousa ◽  
Maria J. Sousa ◽  
Rui Cruz ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Economic Forces ◽  
The Us ◽  
Physical Forces ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chinese Company

This article aims to study international trade specificity and the main activities of Chinese companies in US markets. It addresses the strategic tools of companies and their application in a global and very competitive market, framed by public policies and governments' strategies. It explores the principles of the internal and external environment of the countries. The main research question is: what are the dimensions of a model to potentiate the US–China Companies? The principal methodology used in this research was a literature review, and the analysis was based on the papers that research the theme US and China trade relations. The findings reflect that international trade is conditioned by the government politics, and there are several other obstacles that a US or Chinese company need to overcome: (a) economic forces; (b) technological forces; (c) political–legal forces; (d) sociocultural forces; and (e) physical forces.

scholarly journals A GIS Tool for Mapping Dam-Break Flood Hazards in Italy

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaele Albano ◽  
Leonardo Mancusi ◽  
Jan Adamowski ◽  
Andrea Cantisani ◽  
Aurelia Sole
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Technical Skills ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Mapping the delineation of areas that are flooded due to water control infrastructure failure is a critical issue. Practical difficulties often present challenges to the accurate and effective analysis of dam-break hazard areas. Such studies are expensive, lengthy, and require large volumes of incoming data and refined technical skills. The creation of cost-efficient geospatial tools provides rapid and inexpensive estimates of instantaneous dam-break (due to structural failure) flooded areas that complement, but do not replace, the results of hydrodynamic simulations. The current study implements a Geographic Information System (GIS) based method that can provide useful information regarding the delineation of dam-break flood-prone areas in both data-scarce environments and transboundary regions, in the absence of detailed studies. Moreover, the proposed tool enables, without advanced technical skills, the analysis of a wide number of case studies that support the prioritization of interventions, or, in emergency situations, the simulation of numerous initial hypotheses (e.g., the modification of initial water level/volume in the case of limited dam functionality), without incurring high computational time. The proposed model is based on the commonly available data for masonry dams, i.e., dam geometry (e.g., reservoir capacity, dam height, and crest length), and a Digital Elevation Model. The model allows for rapid and cost-effective dam-break hazard mapping by evaluating three components: (i) the dam-failure discharge hydrograph, (ii) the propagation of the flood, and (iii) the delineation of flood-prone areas. The tool exhibited high accuracy and reliability in the identification of hypothetical dam-break flood-prone areas when compared to the results of traditional hydrodynamic approaches, as applied to a dam in Basilicata (Southern Italy). In particular, the over- and under-estimation rates of the proposed tool, for the San Giuliano dam, Basilicata, were evaluated by comparing its outputs with flood inundation maps that were obtained by two traditional methods whil using a one-dimensional and a two-dimensional propagation model, resulting in a specificity value of roughly 90%. These results confirm that most parts of the flood map were correctly classified as flooded by the proposed GIS model. A sensitivity value of over 75% confirms that several zones were also correctly identified as non-flooded. Moreover, the overall effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model were evaluated, for the Gleno Dam (located in the Central Italian Alps), by comparing the results of literature studies concerning the application of monodimensional numerical models and the extent of the flooded area reconstructed by the available historical information, obtaining an accuracy of around 94%. Finally, the computational efficiency of the proposed tool was tested on a demonstrative application of 250 Italian arch and gravity dams. The results, when carried out using a PC, Pentium Intel Core i5 Processor CPU 3.2 GHz, 8 GB RAM, required about 73 min, showing the potential of such a tool applied to dam-break flood mapping for a large number of dams.

Regulatory Impact Assessment

2010 ◽  
pp. 278-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio M. Radaelli ◽  
Fabrizio de Francesco
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Principal Agent ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Recent Interest ◽  
The Us ◽  
Regulatory Impact ◽  
Two Sides ◽  
Alternative Theories ◽  
Regulatory Impact Assessment

Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has spread throughout the globe. It is a systematic and mandatory appraisal of how proposed primary and/or secondary legislation will affect certain categories of stakeholders, economic sectors, and the environment. This article reviews the theoretical underpinnings of this ‘recent interest’ comparing the two sides of the Atlantic. It introduces the logic of RIA and the terms of the debate in the US and Europe. It proceeds by exploring different theoretical explanations. It draws on principal–agent models but also shows their limitations and considers alternative theories of regulation. Furthermore, it moves from theory to empirical evidence and reports on the main findings and their implications. Finally, it brings together theories and empirical evidence, and introduces a framework for research.

Sudan’s revolution enters its most challenging phase

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Challenge

Significance While a huge step towards a possible democratic transition, the real challenge facing Sudan’s revolution will come in its implementation phases. Impacts Senior TMC figures will continue to wield disproportionate influence due to their control of key institutions and economic sectors. Economic reform will be a central challenge; the situation will likely get worse before it gets better. The deal could see Sudan removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism and move towards debt relief, though both may take time.

Latin American Trade Relations

1997 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-83
Author(s):  
Shirley Christian
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Latin America ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
World War ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Cold War

There has always been a certain attitude in Washington having to do with Latin America. It is that Latin America is not quite a grown-up place and, therefore, is worthy of intense US interest only when the region, or part of it, falls into a crisis that crosses paths with one of the US hot-button issues of the moment: drugs, immigration, human rights, communism (until recently) and, farther back, fascism. In other words, Latin America has been worthy of attention only when the United States decided to “do good” (e.g., human rights crusades), incorporate the region into efforts at solving US domestic problems (e.g., drugs), or needed firm support from the region in some international effort (e.g., the Cold War and World War II).

scholarly journals Buying Friends? The Importance of Economic Flows in Assembling the Iraq War Coalition

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Riegler ◽  
Piotr Lis ◽  
Mehtap Hisarciklilar
Keyword(s):  
Iraq War ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Partner Country ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
International Policies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Good Trade ◽  
Economic Ties

AbstractEconomic ties between countries are likely to influence the alignment of their international policies. This paper investigates whether countries’ historical economic ties with the United States and their expectation of changes in future economic flows had a role in their decision to join the US-led coalition in Iraq from 2003 onwards. We use data on 115 countries over the period 2003–2009 to estimate panel random effects probit models of war coalition participation. We measure the intensity of economic ties with three variables: bilateral trade flows between the partner country and the US as well as FDI and aid flows from the US to the partner country. Our results suggest that both good trade relations prior to the conflict and the prospects of their further improvements increase the willingness of countries to join the coalition. In spite of the anecdotal evidence, we find no empirical evidence that the dependence on American FDI or aid affected countries’ decision on Iraq war participation.

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