scholarly journals Forecast of thunderstorm with increasing advance time

2021 ◽  
Vol 840 (1) ◽  
pp. 012023
Author(s):  
A Kh Kagermazov ◽  
L T Sozaeva
Keyword(s):  
Advance Time

A neural network-based mid-term prognosis of geomagnetic storms that uses pre-storm effects related to current sheets and magnetic islands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Fridman
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Magnetic Islands ◽  
Solar Wind Density ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Storm Effects ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Advance Time

<p>Mid-term prognoses of geomagnetic storms require an improvement since theу are known to have rather low accuracy which does not exceed 40% in solar minimum. We claim that the problem lies in the approach. Current mid-term forecasts are typically built using the same paradigm as short-term ones and suggest an analysis of the solar wind conditions typical for geomagnetic storms. According to this approach, there is a 20-60 minute delay between the arrival of a geoeffective flow/stream to L1 and the arrival of the signal from the spacecraft to Earth, which gives a necessary advance time for a short-term prognosis. For the mid-term forecast with an advance time from 3 hours to 3 days, this is not enough. Therefore, we have suggested finding precursors of geomagnetic storms observed in the solar wind. Such precursors are variations in the solar wind density and the interplanetary magnetic field in the ULF range associated with crossings of magnetic cavities in front of the arriving geoeffective high-speed streams and flows (Khabarova et al., 2015, 2016, 2018; Adhikari et al., 2019). Despite some preliminary studies have shown that this might be a perspective way to create a mid-term prognosis (Khabarova 2007; Khabarova & Yermolaev, 2007), the problem of automatization of the prognosis remained unsolved.</p>

The Progressive in Japanese and Temporal Advancement in Narrative

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Seiki Ayano
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Progressive Aspect ◽  
Perceptual Effect ◽  
Advance Time ◽  
Previous Sentence

Abstract. Various studies have indicated that the aspectual class controls the narrative temporal structure. In principle, sentences with a bound/perfcctive interpretation advance time in narrative. For example, a sentence with either an achievement or an accomplishment predicate does not overlap with surrounding discourse and, therefore, it is interpreted as a description of an event that happens later than the event described in the previous sentence. However, it has also been pointed out that the progressive aspect in English moves time forward in the narrative. Dowry (1986) provides examples in the progressive aspect that alllow time advancement. He argues that in such exceptional cases, a quasi-inceptive reading is possible through "perceptual observations". The present paper examimes the progressive construction in Japanese, which involves the stativc suffix te-iru. The aim of this study is to show that the progressive aspect in Japanese also brings about a perceptual effect under certain conditions, which induces a boundedness reading of the sentence with a predicate in the progressive aspect.

scholarly journals Assessment of straight and meandering furrow irrigation strategies under different inflow rates

Water SA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (4 October) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Sayari ◽  
M Rahimpour ◽  
M Zounemat-Kermani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Contamination ◽  
Hydraulic Parameters ◽  
Deep Percolation ◽  
Inflow Rate ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Application Efficiency ◽  
Irrigation Time ◽  
Free Drainage ◽  
Advance Time

This paper reports the effect of straight furrow (SF) and meandering furrow (MF) irrigation strategies, as well as inflow rate, on infiltration and hydraulic parameters including advance time, recession time, and runoff hydrograph. The performance of SF and MF irrigation in terms of runoff ratio, deep percolation, and application efficiency was evaluated in 6 furrow fields at Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran. The required data were collected from the farm, consisting of free drainage furrows with length 70 m, top width 0.8 m, depth 0.25 m, and slope 0.2%. The advance and recession times were significantly longer in MF than SF irrigation. The infiltration was estimated by Lewis-Kostiakov equation. The infiltration coefficients were calculated: The values of k were higher and of a were lower in MF furrows than in SF furrows. The average runoff ratio and application efficiency for the SF irrigation events were 50.53% and 49.07%, respectively, while those of the MF irrigation events were 7.04% and 52.94%, respectively. Based on the results, the velocity of water advance in MF irrigation is decreased and, thus, the runoff, erosion losses, mass of fertilizer lost and surface water contamination were reduced. Using a lower inflow rate and appropriate irrigation time leads to better management outcomes in irrigation systems.

scholarly journals A Short-term Forecast of the Water Inflow to the Bureya Reservoir on the Basis of ECOMAG Model with the Use of Meteorological Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Water Inflow ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Diagnostic Potential ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Advance Time

A method of short-term forecast of water inflow to Bureya reservoir on the basis of a hydrological model and meteorological forecasts has been developed in order to improve the short-term planning effectiveness. A spatial-distribute physical/mathematical model of the runoff formation was used as a hydrological model. It was calibrated and validated by data of the retrospective hydro/meteorological observations in the Bureya River basin. Statistical criteria have shown good quality of modeling and high diagnostic potential of the model. Forecast calculations on the hydrological model with the seven days advance time can be done according the forecast meteorological data received on the basis of two atmosphere circulation models. A procedure of the forecast calculations’ correction with taking into account newly received hydrological information on water inflow to the reservoir has been applied to raise the hydrological forecasts reliability. Results of our operative test of the developed method of the water inflow to Bureya reservoir short-term forecast in 2016 are given.

scholarly journals Theoretical bounds for the exponent in the empirical power-law advance-time curve for surface flow

2018 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 208-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Ghanbarian ◽  
Hamed Ebrahimian ◽  
Allen G. Hunt ◽  
M. Th. van Genuchten
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Empirical Power ◽  
Time Curve ◽  
Advance Time

scholarly journals Prediction of Zika-confirmed cases in Brazil and Colombia using Google Trends

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (13) ◽  
pp. 1625-1627 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Morsy ◽  
T.N. Dang ◽  
M.G. Kamel ◽  
A.H. Zayan ◽  
O.M. Makram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Web Search ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Search Query ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Advance Time ◽  
Google Search

AbstractZika virus infection in humans has been linked to severe neurological sequels and foetal malformations. The rapidly evolving epidemics and serious complications made the frequent updates of Zika virus mandatory. Web search query has emerged as a low-cost real-time surveillance system to anticipate infectious diseases’ outbreaks. Hence, we developed a prediction model that could predict Zika-confirmed cases based on Zika search volume in Google Trends. We extracted weekly confirmed Zika cases of two epidemic countries, Brazil and Colombia. We got the weekly Zika search volume in the two countries from Google Trends. We used standard time-series regression (TSR) to predict the weekly confirmed Zika cases based on the Zika search volume (Zika query). The basis TSR model – using 1-week lag of Zika query and using 1-week lag of Zika cases as a control for autocorrelation – was the best for predicting Zika cases in Brazil and Colombia because it balanced the performance of the model and the advance time in the prediction. Our results showed that we could use Google search queries to predict Zika cases 1 week earlier before the outbreak. These findings are important to help healthcare authorities evaluate the outbreak and take necessary precautions.

scholarly journals Infiltration and Soil Water Distribution in Irrigation Furrows Treated with Polyacrylamide

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1451-1464
Author(s):  
Rick D. Lentz ◽  
Eduardo Bautista ◽  
Anita Koehn ◽  
Robert Sojka
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Inflow Rate ◽  
Lower Section ◽  
Irrigation Uniformity ◽  
Advance Time ◽  
Soil Water Distribution

HighlightsControl furrows with 1× inflow rates were compared with 3× advance inflows treated with 10 mg L-1 polymer (WSPAM).WSPAM reduced sediment loads in furrow streams by 89%, despite its 3× greater advance inflows.WSPAM furrow advance times and infiltrated volumes were greater than predicted from increased inflows alone.WSPAM enabled reduced upper-section infiltration and increased lower-section infiltration relative to control furrows.Abstract. Few if any studies have measured the effects of water-soluble anionic polyacrylamide (WSPAM) on infiltration and soil water distribution in different segments of irrigation furrows. We conducted a four-year study on a silt loam soil with 1.5% slopes. Control furrows received no WSPAM and inflows were 15.1 L min-1, whereas WSPAM was applied using 10 mg L-1 a.i. to 45 L min-1 inflows during furrow advance. Despite its greater advance phase inflow rates, WSPAM application reduced sediment concentrations in furrow streams by an average of 89% relative to the control. A surface irrigation model, WinSRFR 5.1, was used to separate furrow inflow rate effects on infiltration from that of WSPAM. Relative to results predicted by simulation for the entire furrow, the polymer treatment: (1) increased advance time an average 1.4-fold, (2) increased advance-phase infiltrated volume 1.5-fold, and (3) increased infiltration volume at the common opportunity time 1.2-fold. Hence, these effects resulted from WSPAM and not from differences in treatment inflow rates. Treatment infiltration amounts varied markedly among irrigations and years, as did the intensity of WSPAM effects. These were attributed mainly to differences in infiltration opportunity time, but temporal differences in soil water content during furrow formation, irrigation water electrical conductivity, initial soil surface water content and water temperature, and the irrigation-long, furrow-stream mean sediment content also appear to have influenced infiltration rates. Although inconsistent, WSPAM increased net furrow infiltration in the lower section and reduced infiltration in the upper section relative to control furrows. This effect could not be explained by the greater inflow rate and shorter advance time of the WSPAM treatments and was attributed to spatially variable WSPAM effects on infiltration opportunity time and possibly irrigation water viscosity. The WSPAM management approach, while protecting against furrow erosion, may potentially provide a means of improving irrigation uniformity and reducing associated percolation water and nutrient losses. Keywords: Furrow advance, Irrigation, Irrigation uniformity, Polymers.

scholarly journals Field assessment of surge and continuous furrow irrigation methods in relation to tillage systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Mattar ◽  
Mohamed A. El-Saadawy ◽  
Mamdouh A. Helmy ◽  
Hussien M. Sorour
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Continuous Flow ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Furrow Irrigation ◽  
Tillage Systems ◽  
Continuous Irrigation ◽  
Field Assessment ◽  
Distribution Uniformity ◽  
Mouldboard Plough ◽  
Advance Time

Abstract Surge flow irrigation is one of the irrigation techniques for controlling furrow irrigation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of surge furrow irrigation on water management compared with continuous irrigation for different tillage systems. An experimental field was treated with various tillage systems (mouldboard plough, chisel plough and rotary plough) and water irrigation application methods (continuous flow, control) in which irrigation water was applied continuously, and surge flow (3-surges, 4-surges and 5-surges) in which irrigation water was applied intermittently until it reached the tail end of the furrow. The results showed that water savings obtained using the surge technique were 18.58, 11.84 and 18.93% lower water use than with continuous flow, for the mouldboard, chisel and rotary ploughs, respectively. The 3-surges treatment with the rotary plough reduced the advance time by 25.36% from that for continuous irrigation. The 4-surges treatment with the mouldboard plough had the highest water application efficiency (88.13%). The 3-surges treatment with the rotary plough had the highest distribution uniformity (85.01%). The rotary plough did not cause as much soil aeration around the root system as the other tillage systems. The field research provided information about surge flow, aimed at reducing advance times and increasing irrigation efficiency.

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