Roy-model bounds on the wage effects of the Great Migration

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R Gardner

Summary This paper combines a Roy model of migration and counterfactual wages with racial differences in migration rates during the Great Migration to recover lower bounds on black–white differences in the wage impacts of northward migration. Identification is predicated on the idea that, when migration is more selective for whites, regional wage differentials for whites will be more contaminated with selection bias. In this case, the black–white difference in North–South wage differentials bounds the racial difference in wage impacts from below. Furthermore, as long as the impact of migration on whites’ wages is nonnegative, a lower bound on the black–white difference in wage impacts is also a lower bound on the impact itself for blacks. Applying the identification result, I find that northward migration increased blacks’ wages by at least 36% more than whites’, and hence by at least 36%, on average between 1940 and 1970.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaitlyn M Peper ◽  
Boyi Guo ◽  
Leann Long ◽  
George Howard ◽  
April P Carson ◽  
...  

Introduction: Black Americans have a higher incidence of diabetes and have elevated inflammatory biomarkers compared to white Americans. Elevated inflammation is a risk factor for diabetes but the impact of inflammation on the racial disparity in diabetes is unknown. Hypothesis: Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) attenuates the observed black-white difference in incident diabetes. Methods: REGARDS enrolled 30,239 black and white adults aged ≥45 years from the contiguous US in 2003-07. This analysis included REGARDS participants without baseline diabetes who were assessed for diabetes 9 years later. RRs for incident diabetes by race were calculated using modified Poisson regression adjusting for risk factors known to contribute to the racial difference in diabetes incidence. The attenuation by CRP of the black-white RR of incident diabetes was calculated as the percent difference in the race RR in models with and without CRP adjustment; 95% CI for the difference was estimated using bootstrapping. Results: Of 11,073 participants without baseline diabetes (33% black, 67% white), black participants had higher CRP than white participants, and 12.5% developed incident diabetes. The black-white RR for incident diabetes in the base model was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.52, 1.99) for women and 1.44 (1.25, 1.66) for men. Baseline CRP mediated 21% (14, 29%) of this association in women and 20% (12, 34%) in men. These percent attenuations were similar in models adjusting for other diabetes risk factors but were diminished in a fully adjusted model; 5% (-4, 25%) in women and 7% (-43, 50%) in men (Figure). Conclusion: Adjustment for CRP in base models accounted for 20% and 21% of the excess risk of incident diabetes observed in black men and women, respectively, in this study. This substantial mediation persisted after adjusting for other risk factors but was diminished in the fully adjusted model. This suggests a role of inflammation in the diabetogenic effects of risk factors contributing to the observed racial difference in diabetes incidence.



2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan A. Black ◽  
Seth G. Sanders ◽  
Evan J. Taylor ◽  
Lowell J. Taylor

The Great Migration—the massive migration of African Americans out of the rural South to largely urban locations in the North, Midwest, and West—was a landmark event in US history. Our paper shows that this migration increased mortality of African Americans born in the early twentieth century South. This inference comes from an analysis that uses proximity of birthplace to railroad lines as an instrument for migration. (JEL I12, J15, N31, N32, N91, N92, R23)



2015 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 947-992 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Collins ◽  
Marianne H. Wanamaker

We construct datasets of linked census records to study internal migrants' selection and destination choices during the first decades of the “Great Migration” (1910–1930). We study both whites and blacks and intra- and inter-regional migration. While there is some evidence of positive selection, the degree of selection was small and participation in migration was widespread. Differences in background, including initial location, cannot account for racial differences in destination choices. Blacks and whites were similarly responsive to pre-existing migrant stocks from their home state, but black men were more deterred by distance, attracted to manufacturing, and responsive to labor demand.



2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-455
Author(s):  
Katherine J. Curtis White

Using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), this analysis examines the economic activity of black and white southern-born female migrants participating in the Great Migration. Labor force participation and occupational SEI scores are investigated with specific focus on racial differences within and between migrant groups. Black migrants had a higher probability of participating in the labor force, yet their employment was concentrated among the lower SEI occupations throughout the period. Racial differences also were observed among the influence of personal, household, and location characteristics on economic activity such that the positive associations were less pronounced, while the negative impacts were differentially felt among black migrant women; education was less beneficial, and the deterring effects of marital status were less pronounced for black migrants. Racial differences narrowed at the end of the Great Migration for the southern migrants, reflecting a pattern most similar to nonmigrant northerners and more advantageous than that observed for nonmigrant southern women.



2005 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart E. Tolnay ◽  
Katherine J. Curtis White ◽  
Kyle D. Crowder ◽  
Robert M. Adelman

Between 1910 and 1970, millions of southern-born Americans migrated to the northern and western regions of the country in search of better opportunities. Some traveled only short distances, leaving Appalachia for nearby destinations in the southern Midwest. Others made the much longer trek to the West Coast. In this article, we use data from the 1920, 1940, and 1970 Public Use Microdata Samples to investigate the distances traveled by male participants in the Great Migration, with a special focus on differences by race, as well as on changes over time. We find that the average distance traveled increased substantially during the Great Migration for blacks and whites alike. However, throughout this time period, white migrants moved significantly farther than black migrants. The greater propensity for white migrants to move west, rather than north, accounts for a good deal of this overall racial variation. Although the difference in distance traveled between blacks and whites narrowed significantly over time, it remained substantial as the Great Migration came to a close. We conclude by highlighting the impact of these differential migration patterns on the composition and social conditions in northern cities.



2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 230
Author(s):  
Anthony Vito ◽  
George Higgins ◽  
Gennaro Vito

The findings of this study outline the racial differences in stop and frisk decisions by Illinois officers in consent searches and those based upon reasonable suspicion within the context of the elements of focal concerns theory. The analysis for this study was performed using propensity score matching (PSM) and allowed the researchers to create a quasi-experimental design to examine the race of the citizen and police decision making. According to our analysis of official Illinois law enforcement data, Black citizens, particularly males, were less likely to give their consent to a stop and frisk search. Black male citizens were also more likely to be stopped and searched due to an assessment of reasonable suspicion by the officer. Elements of focal concerns theory were also factors in pedestrian stops under conditions of consent and reasonable suspicion. Citizens judged as blameworthy were more likely to be stopped and frisked under conditions of consent and reasonable suspicion. The effect of a verbal threat and the officer’s prior knowledge about the citizen had even more significant impacts.



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