scholarly journals Dynamic Models of Infectious Disease Transmission in Prisons and the General Population

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah ◽  
Vivian S Vigliotti ◽  
Laura A Skrip ◽  
Kate Dolan ◽  
Alison P Galvani
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cory Simon

The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an auto-catalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. By making this analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions, chemists and chemical engineers can peer into dynamic models of infectious disease transmission used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies.


Author(s):  
Michał Ochal ◽  
Robert Kuchta ◽  
Kornelia Tokarczyk-Malesa ◽  
Małgorzata Romaszko ◽  
Rafał Skutecki

Introduction: Viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, are airborne and transmitted mainly via droplets. This type of transmission is particularly significant for people remaining in common closed space. It is also crucial in the case of homeless people who remain periodically in shelters, considering that in this subpopulation it is often problematic to follow anti-epidemic hygiene measures. Aim: The aim of this work was the assessment of COVID-19 incidence in the Shelter for the Homeless named after Sabina Kusznierów in Olsztyn (Poland), and the analysis of the development of a micro-epidemic. Material and methods: Data were collected from the Shelter for the Homeless named after Sabina Kusznierów in Olsztyn. The retrospective analysis embracing the period of December 2020 and March 2021 was performed for 82 shelter residents. Attendance lists and personal identification numbers (PESEL) constituted the basis for obtaining the results of SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests from the gabinet.gov.pl portal. Results and discussion: Each of those residents remained overnight in the shelter at least once. In total, 50% of the analyzed individuals became infected. No cases of reinfection were noted. This work presents a case of COVID-19 transmission in closed space in which ‘patient zero’ appeared on December 18, 2020. Conclusions: The described epidemic demonstrates the classic scenario of an infectious disease transmission in closed space. Owing to the implications for society, ease of the infection transmission in the general population, and the lack of other real measures to influence this subpopulation, we believe that this group should be prioritized when planning vaccinations during possible subsequent waves of infections, if such should occur.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cory Simon

<div>The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. This analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions allows chemists and chemical engineers to peer into dynamic models of infectious disease transmission used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies. Moreover, analysis of SIR model dynamics gives insights into the kinetics of autocatalytic reactions.</div>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cory Simon

<div>Mathematical models of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission are used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies. We reveal that the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. This analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions allows chemists and chemical engineers to peer into dynamic models of infectious disease transmission and gives insights into the kinetics of autocatalytic reactions.</div>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Maria Cadavid Restrepo ◽  
Luis Furuya-Kanamori ◽  
Helen Mayfield ◽  
Eric J. Nilles ◽  
Colleen L. Lau

2012 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 23-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. K. WATERS ◽  
H. S. SIDHU ◽  
G. N. MERCER

AbstractPatchy or divided populations can be important to infectious disease transmission. We first show that Lloyd’s mean crowding index, an index of patchiness from ecology, appears as a term in simple deterministic epidemic models of the SIR type. Using these models, we demonstrate that the rate of movement between patches is crucial for epidemic dynamics. In particular, there is a relationship between epidemic final size and epidemic duration in patchy habitats: controlling inter-patch movement will reduce epidemic duration, but also final size. This suggests that a strategy of quarantining infected areas during the initial phases of a virulent epidemic might reduce epidemic duration, but leave the population vulnerable to future epidemics by inhibiting the development of herd immunity.


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