scholarly journals How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1069-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. L. Cheung ◽  
Daniel Pauly ◽  
Jorge L. Sarmiento
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Scientific Modelling ◽  
Maximum Body ◽  
Abundant Data ◽  
Maximum Body Size

Abstract Cheung, W. W. L., Pauly, D., and Sarmiento, J. L. 2013. How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1069–1074. Scientific modelling has become a crucial tool for assessing climate change impacts on marine resources. Brander et al. criticize the treatment of reliability and uncertainty of such models, with specific reference to Cheung et al. (2013, Nature Climate Change, 3: 254–258) and their projections of a decrease in maximum body size of marine fish under climate change. Here, we use the specific criticisms of Brander et al. (2013, ICES Journal of Marine Science) on Cheung et al. (2013) as examples to discuss ways to make progress in scientific modelling in marine science. We address the technical criticisms by Brander et al., then their more general comments on uncertainty. The growth of fish is controlled and limited by oxygen, as documented in a vast body of peer-reviewed literature that elaborates on a robust theory based on abundant data. The results from Cheung et al. were obtained using published, reproducible and peer-reviewed methods, and the results agree with the empirical data; the key assumptions and uncertainties of the analysis were stated. These findings can serve as a step towards improving our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. We suggest that, as in other fields of science, it is important to develop incrementally (or radically) new approaches and analyses that extend, and ultimately improve, our understanding and projections of climate change effects on marine ecosystems.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1272-1282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Payne ◽  
Manuel Barange ◽  
William W. L. Cheung ◽  
Brian R. MacKenzie ◽  
Harold P. Batchelder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Decadal Time Scale ◽  
Scenario Uncertainty

Abstract Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Agricultural Greenhouses in São Tomé and Príncipe

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Kiakisiki Quaresma Nascimento ◽  
Maria Raquel Raquel Lucas ◽  
Pedro Damião Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rural Communities ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Viable Alternative ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Sao Tome And Principe ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Since 2016, STP has been funding the implementation of greenhouses, viewed as a viable way to guarantee, increase, and diversify production; supply the market; improve farmers' incomes; and mitigate climate change impacts. The greenhouses in selected districts were based on farmers' experiences in horticultural production, available agricultural area, and capacity of rural communities to organize themselves into small farmers' cooperatives. There are also private greenhouse initiatives. This chapter analyzed the current situation of the STP greenhouse project and its socioeconomic contribution to rural communities, proposing actions for its improvement, addressing climate changes and poverty reduction. Despite several weaknesses, mainly linked to lack of knowledge and mastery of technology, greenhouse production represents a viable alternative for horticulture development. Greenhouses, properly exploited, are a mechanism to mitigate climate change effects and ensure an increase in income and consequently reduce poverty and improve individual and collective living conditions.

scholarly journals Climate Change Effects? Compelling Evidence from Data, Farmers and Artisans’ Perception in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-19
Author(s):  
Ozabor Famous ◽  
Wodu Douye ◽  
Pere-ere xxx ◽  
Okoh Ikechukwu Emmanuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Compelling Evidence ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Ex Post Facto ◽  
Linear Regressions ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This study assessed climate change in Warri, by looking at the evidence from archival records and the perception of the locals regarding same topic. The dangers of ‘not knowing’ about the phenomenon of climate change motivated this study. Also, the impacts of climate change have become rampant in the area. The inquiry was pursued using ex-post facto and survey research designs were used for the study and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency was consulted for rainfall and temperature data, while questionnaire was used to solicit information from respondents. Analyses were carried out using linear regressions. Established in the study is that, there is climate change in the area and its manifestations are in flooding, increased frequency of rainfall, poor crop yield etc. On the premise of findings, the study recommended proper climate education, harnessing ICT for mitigating climate change impacts and more inquiry into climate change milieu in the area by looking at the seasonality, onset and cessation of rains and other climate parameters.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on plant diseases

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanmoy Das ◽  
M. Hajong D Majumdar ◽  
RK Tombisana Devi ◽  
T Rajesh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Adaptive Potential ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pathogen Populations

The change in Global climate is due to increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. The earths’ observed climatic changes over the past 50 years are primarily caused by various human activities. The increasing global temperature over the past century by about 0.8°C and expected to rise between 0.9 and 3.5°C by 2100. Such changes will not only have a great effect on the growth and cultivation of different crops but also affect the reproduction, spread and severity of many plant pathogens. Various plant disease models have been developed to incorporate more sophisticated climate predictions at various levels. At the level, the adaptive potential of plant and pathogen populations may prove to be one of the most important predictors of the magnitude of climate change effects. This review highlights various influences of climate change on plant diseases and their effects with suitable examples.SAARC J. Agri., 14(2): 200-209 (2016)

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott C. Doney ◽  
Mary Ruckelshaus ◽  
J. Emmett Duffy ◽  
James P. Barry ◽  
Francis Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Ecosystems

scholarly journals An Approach Concerning Climate Change and Timber Building Resilience: Araucanía Region, South Chile

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 452
Author(s):  
Andrés J. Prieto ◽  
Konstantin Verichev ◽  
Ana Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Functional Performance ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Heritage Conservation ◽  
Timber Structures ◽  
Architectural Heritage ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Method ◽  
Adaptation Policies

This study analysed climate change effects concerning the resilience of timber buildings located in southern Chile, specifically in two cities: Collipulli and Temuco (Araucanía Region). A digital fuzzy logic method was used in a set of timber buildings declared as heritage conservation buildings by Chilean Government standards. The outcomes revealed that climate change impacts did not substantially alter the functional performance of the set of heritage timber buildings examined. This study’s results can assist in developing upcoming strategies or recommendations that can support adaptation policies for administering architectural heritage regarding climate change forecasts. These data will invaluably help stakeholders who support the conservation of timber structures located in the southern environment of Chile and under the changing climatic hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Forests: A Literature Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 453-476
Author(s):  
Giorgia Bottaro ◽  
Paola Gatto ◽  
Davide Pettenella
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Mountain Forests ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Change Effects

AbstractThe effects of climate change are increasingly more visible on natural ecosystems. Being mountain forest ecosystems among the most vulnerable and the most affected, they appear to be, at the same time, the most suitable for the assessment of climate change effects on ecosystem services. Assuming this, we review the literature on the economic assessment of climate change impacts on European mountain forests. Initially, the trends in the provision of mountain forest ecosystem services are discussed. We, then, considered the effects on forest structure and tree physiology, these two being strictly associated with the capability of the ecosystem to provide ecosystem services. The results have been grouped into a table that displays the trend, the quality and the quantity of the information found. Subsequently, the main methods that can be employed to assess the economic value of the different ecosystem services have been described. For each method, some implementation examples have been introduced to better understand its functioning. Concluding, the main gaps still existing in literature concerning the effects of climate change on ecosystem services provided by mountain forests have been highlighted. Finally, some more considerations about the existing methods for the economic valuation of ecosystem services have been done.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Polar Marine Ecosystems: Toward Robust Approaches for Managing Risks and Uncertainties

2022 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geir Ottersen ◽  
Andrew J. Constable ◽  
Anne B. Hollowed ◽  
Kirstin K. Holsman ◽  
Jess Melbourne-Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Knowledge Gaps ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Changing Climate

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document